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Author |
Tao, F.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, S.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title  |
Heat stress impacts on wheat growth and yield were reduced in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
71 |
Issue |
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Pages |
44-52 |
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Keywords |
adaptation; crop production; cultivars; extreme climate; impacts; phenology; high-temperature stress; climate-change; winter-wheat; spring wheat; crop yields; day length; trends; variability; senescence; phenology |
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Abstract |
Heat stress impacts on crop growth and yield have been investigated by controlled-environment experiments, however little is known about the impacts under field conditions at large spatial and temporal scales, particularly in a setting with farmers’ autonomous adaptations. Here, using detailed experiment Observations at 34 national agricultural meteorological stations spanning from 1981 to 2009 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) of China, we investigated the changes in climate and heat stress during wheat reproductive growing period (from heading to maturity) and the impacts of climate change and heat stress on reproductive growing duration (RGD) and yield in a setting with farmers’ autonomous adaptations. We found that RGD and growing degree days above 0 degrees C (GDD) from heading to maturity increased, which increased yield by similar to 14.85%, although heat stress had negative impacts on RGD and yield. During 1981-2009, high temperature (>34 degrees C) degree days (HDD) increased in the northern part, however decreased in the middle and southern parts of HHHP due to advances in heading and maturity dates. Change in HDD, together with increase in GDD and decrease in solar radiation (SRD), jointly increased wheat yield in the northern and middle parts but reduced it in the southern part of HHHP. During the study period, increase in GDD and decrease in SRD had larger impacts on yield than change in HDD. However, with climate warming of 2 degrees C, damage of heat stress on yield may offset a large portion of the benefits from increases in RGD and GDD, and eventually result in net negative impacts on yield in the northern part of HHHP. Our study showed that shifts in cultivars and wheat production system dynamics in the past three decades reduced heat stress impacts in the HHHP. The insights into crop response and adaptation to climate change and climate extremes provide excellent evidences and basis for improving climate change impact study and designing adaptation measures for the future. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-06-01 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4743 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, S.; Rötter, R.P.; Shi, W.; Xiao, D.; Liu, Y.; Wang, M.; Liu, F.; Zhang, H. |
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Title |
Historical data provide new insights into response and adaptation of maize production systems to climate change/variability in China |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
185 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-11 |
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Keywords |
china; climate variability; grain yield; impact; maize; northeast china; tropical maize; wheat yields; heat-stress; crop yields; temperature; impacts; sensitivities; hybrids; trends |
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Abstract |
Extensive studies had been conducted to investigate the impacts of climate change on maize growth and yield in recent decades; however, the dynamics of crop husbandry in response and adaptation to climate change were not taken into account. Based on field observations spanning from 1981 to 2009 at 167 agricultural meteorological stations across China, we found that solar radiation and temperature over the observed maize growth period had decreasing trends during 1981-2009, and maize yields were positively correlated with these climate variables in major production regions. The decreasing trends in solar radiation and temperature during maize growth period were mainly ascribed to the adoption of late maturity cultivars with longer reproductive growth period (RGP). The adoption of late maturing cultivars with longer RGP contributed substantially to grain yield increase during the last three decades. The climate trends during maize growth period varied among different production areas. During 1981-2009, decreases in mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation over maize growth period jointly reduced yield most by 13.2-17.3% in southwestern China, by contrast in northwestern China increases in mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation jointly increased yield most by 12.9-14.4%. Our findings highlight that the adaptations of maize production system to climate change through shifts of sowing date and genotypes are underway and should be taken into accounted when evaluating climate change impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4816 |
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Baranowski, P.; Krzyszczak, J.; Slawinski, C.; Hoffmann, H.; Kozyra, J.; Nieróbca, A.; Siwek, K.; Gluza, A. |
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Title |
Multifractal analysis of meteorological time series to assess climate impacts |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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Pages |
39-52 |
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Keywords |
multifractal analysis; time series; agro-meteorological parameters; detrended fluctuation analysis; daily temperature records; catalonia ne spain; fractal analysis; river-basin; precipitation; variability; patterns; trends; china |
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Agro-meteorological quantities are often in the form of time series, and knowledge about their temporal scaling properties is fundamental for transferring locally measured fluctuations to larger scales and vice versa. However, the scaling analysis of these quantities is complicated due to the presence of localized trends and nonstationarities. The objective of this study was to characterise scaling properties (i.e. statistical self-similarity) of the chosen agro-meteorological quantities through multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA). For this purpose, MFDFA was performedwith 11 322 measured time series (31 yr) of daily air temperature, wind velocity, relative air humidity, global radiation and precipitation from stations located in Finland, Germany, Poland and Spain. The empirical singularity spectra indicated their multifractal structure. The richness of the studied multifractals was evaluated by the width of their spectrum, indicating considerable differences in dynamics and development. In log-log plots of the cumulative distributions of all meteorological parameters the linear functions prevailed for high values of the response, indicating that these distributions were consistent with power-law asymptotic behaviour. Additionally, we investigated the type of multifractality that underlies the q-dependence of the generalized Hurst exponent by analysing the corresponding shuffled and surrogate time series. For most of the studied meteorological parameters, the multifractality is due to different long-range correlations for small and large fluctuations. Only for precipitation does the multifractality result mainly from broad probability function. This feature may be especially valuable for assessing the effect of change in climate dynamics. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4666 |
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Elsgaard, L.; Børgesen, C.D.; Olesen, J.E.; Siebert, S.; Ewert, F.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rötter, R.P.; Skjelvåg, A.O. |
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Title |
Shifts in comparative advantages for maize, oat and wheat cropping under climate change in Europe |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Addit. Contam. Part A |
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29 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
1514-1526 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture/*economics/trends; Animals; Avena/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; *Climate Change/economics; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; Europe; *Food Safety; Forecasting/methods; Fungi/growth & development/metabolism; Humans; Models, Biological; Models, Economic; Mycotoxins/analysis/biosynthesis; Soil Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Triticum/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; Uncertainty; Weather; Zea mays/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology |
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Climate change is anticipated to affect European agriculture, including the risk of emerging or re-emerging feed and food hazards. Indirectly, climate change may influence such hazards (e.g. the occurrence of mycotoxins) due to geographic shifts in the distribution of major cereal cropping systems and the consequences this may have for crop rotations. This paper analyses the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45-65°N) and provides model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively. The projected cropping shares are based on the output from the two RCMs and on algorithms derived for the relation between meteorological data and observed cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat. The observed cropping shares show a south-to-north gradient, where maize had its maximum at 45-55°N, oat had its maximum at 55-65°N, and wheat was more evenly distributed along the latitudes in Europe. Under the projected climate changes, there was a general increase in maize cropping shares, whereas for oat no areas showed distinct increases. For wheat, the projected changes indicated a tendency towards higher cropping shares in the northern parts and lower cropping shares in the southern parts of the study area. The present modelling approach represents a simplification of factors determining the distribution of cereal crops, and also some uncertainties in the data basis were apparent. A promising way of future model improvement could be through a systematic analysis and inclusion of other variables, such as key soil properties and socio-economic conditions, influencing the comparative advantages of specific crops. |
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1944-0049 1944-0057 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4585 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Xiao, D.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, Z.; Roetter, R.P. |
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Title |
Wheat yield benefited from increases in minimum temperature in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades |
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Journal Article |
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2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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239 |
Issue |
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1-14 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture, Climate change, Crop yield, Impact and adaptation, Heat stress, Phenology; Climate-Change; Winter-Wheat; North China; Triticum-Aestivum; Crop; Production; Grain-Growth; Impacts; Trends; Heat; Management |
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Abstract |
Our understanding of climate impacts and adaptations on crop growth and productivity can be accelerated by analyzing historical data over the past few decades. We used crop trial and climate data from 1981 to 2009 at 34 national agro-meteorological stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) of China to investigate the impacts of climate factors during different growth stages on the growth and yields of winter wheat, accounting for the adaptations such as shifts in sowing dates, cultivars, and agronomic management. Maximum (T-max) and minimum temperature (T-min) during the growth period of winter wheat increased significantly, by 0.4 and 0.6 degrees C/decade, respectively, from 1981 to 2009, while solar radiation decreased significantly by 0.2 MJ/m(2)/day and precipitation did not change significantly. The trends in climate shifted wheat phenology significantly at 21 stations and affected wheat yields significantly at five stations. The impacts of T-max and T-min differed in different growth stages of winter wheat. Across the stations, during 1981-2009, wheat yields increased on average by 14.5% with increasing trends in T-min over the whole growth period, which reduced frost damage, however, decreased by 3.0% with the decreasing trends in solar radiation. Trends in Tmax and precipitation had comparatively smaller impacts on wheat yields. From 1981 to 2009, climate trends were associated with a <= 30% (or <= 1.0% per year) wheat yield increase at 23 stations in eastern and southern parts of HHHP; however with a <= 30% (or <= 1.0% per year) reduction at 11 other stations, mainly in western part of HHHP. We also found that wheat reproductive growth duration increased due to shifts in cultivars and flowering date, and the duration was significantly and positively correlated with wheat yield. This study highlights the different impacts of T-max and T-min in different growth stages of winter wheat, as well as the importance of management (e.g. shift of sowing date) and cultivars shift in adapting to climate change in the major wheat production region. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2017-06-12 |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4962 |
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