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Author |
Irz, X.; Kuosmanen, N. |
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Title |
Explaining growth in demand for dairy products in Finland: an econometric analysis |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Food Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Economics |
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Volume |
9 |
Issue |
sup5 |
Pages |
47-56 |
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Keywords |
Consumption; food; almost ideal demand system; decomposition; elasticities; milk; demand analysis; farm |
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Abstract |
The dairy sector represents the cornerstone of Finnish agriculture but faces new challenges linked to the decoupling of farm subsidies and abolition of milk production quotas. Because of its increasing exposure to market forces, the sector must anticipate future changes in demand and deliver precisely what Finnish consumers want. This paper contributes to that goal by analyzing retroactively the drivers of demand for dairy products over the period 1975–2010 using National Accounts Data. After presenting the evolution of consumption for dairy products, we estimate a complete system of demand for food and dairy products and use it to decompose demand growth into a substitution effect, income effect, and trend effect. The analysis points to the severity of the challenges that the sector is facing. Stagnant consumption is at least partially the result of continuous but adverse taste changes, and as Finnish consumers grow more prosperous, they allocate an increasingly smaller share of their food budget to the dairy group. The low own-price elasticity of demand for dairy products also limits the benefits to the sector of growth in milk production. Hence, business-as-usual will result in the dwindling importance of the dairy sector in the Finnish food chain. Innovation and product differentiation, perhaps emphasizing the attributes of livestock production processes, are clearly required to counter this evolution. |
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2164-828x |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4491 |
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Zhen, L.; Deng, X.; Wei, Y.; Jiang, Q.; Lin, Y.; Helming, K.; Wang, C.; König, H.J.; Hu, J. |
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Title |
Future land use and food security scenarios for the Guyuan district of remote western China |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
iForest |
Abbreviated Journal |
iForest |
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Volume |
7 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
372-384 |
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Keywords |
land-use patterns; scenario analysis; dynamics of land systems modeling; food security; guyuan district; north-central china; cultivated land; dynamics; conversion; policy |
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Abstract |
Government policy is a major human factor that causes changes in land use. Decisions on land management and land-use planning, as well as the analysis and quantification of policy consequences, may greatly benefit from the simulation of the dynamics of land-use systems. In the present study, we predicted land-use changes and their potential impacts on food security in the environmentally fragile Guyuan District, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (north-central China), under the influence of a program to convert sloping agricultural land to conservation uses. Baseline and conservation policy scenarios (2005 to 2020) were developed based on input from local stakeholders and expert knowledge. For the baseline and conservation policies, we formulated high-, moderate-, and low-growth scenarios, analyzed the driving mechanisms responsible for the land-use dynamics, and then applied a previously developed “dynamics of land systems” model to simulate changes in land uses based on the driving mechanisms. We found that spatially explicit policies can promote the conversion of land to more sustainable uses; however, decreasing the amount of agricultural and urban land and increasing grassland and forest cover will increase the risk of grain shortages, and the effect will be more severe under the conservation and high- growth scenarios than under the baseline and low-growth scenarios. The Guyuan case study suggests that, during the next decade, important trade-offs between environmental conservation and food security will inevitably occur. Future land-use decisions should carefully consider the balance between land resource conservation, agricultural production, and urban expansion. |
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1971-7458 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4547 |
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Bennetzen, E.H.; Smith, P.; Soussana, J.-F.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
Identity-based estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production: case study from Denmark |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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41 |
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66-72 |
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kaya identity; kaya-porter identity; crop production; greenhouse gas emission; energy intensity; mitigation; food system; agriculture; mitigation; energy; opportunities; inventory; europe; policy; land |
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In order to feed the world we need innovative thinking on how to increase agricultural production whilst also mitigating climate change. Agriculture and land-use change are responsible for approximately one-third of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but hold potential for climate change mitigation but are only tangentially included in UNFCCC mitigation policies. To get a full estimate of GHG emissions from agricultural crop production both energy-based emissions and land-based emissions need to be accounted for. Furthermore, the major mitigation potential is likely to be indirect reduction of emissions i.e. reducing emissions per unit of agricultural product rather than the absolute emissions per se. Hence the system productivity must be included in the same analysis. This paper presents the Kaya-Porter identity, derived from the Maya identity, as a new way to calculate GHG emissions from agricultural crop production by deconstructing emissions into five elements; the GHG intensity of the energy used for production (kg CO2-eq./MJ), energy intensity of the production (MJ/kg dry matter), areal productivity (kg dry matter/ha), areal land-based GHG emissions (CO2-eq./ha) and area (ha). These separate elements in the identity can be targeted in emissions reduction and mitigation policies and are useful to analyse past and current trends in emissions and to explore future scenarios. Using the Kaya-Porter identity we have performed a case study on Danish crop production and find emissions to have been reduced by 12% from 1992 to 2008, whilst yields per unit area have remained constant. Both land-based emissions and energy-based emissions have decreased, mainly due to a 41% reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use. The initial identity based analysis for crop production presented here needs to be extended to include livestock to reflect the entire agricultural production and food demand sectors, thereby permitting analysis of the trade-offs between animal and plant food production, human dietary preferences and population and resulting GHG emissions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-07-22 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4581 |
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Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
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Title |
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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Volume |
3 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
827-832 |
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Keywords |
crop production; models; food; co2; temperature; projections; adaptation; scenarios; ensemble; impacts |
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Abstract |
Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking. |
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1758-678x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4599 |
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Bodirsky, B.L.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.P.; Rolinski, S.; Weindl, I.; Schmitz, C.; Müller, C.; Bonsch, M.; Humpenöder, F.; Biewald, A.; Stevanovic, M. |
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Title |
Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Communications |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Comm. |
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Volume |
5 |
Issue |
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Pages |
3858 |
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Keywords |
Animals; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism/*supply & distribution; Environmental Pollution/*prevention & control; *Food Supply; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen Fixation; *Population Growth; Reactive Nitrogen Species/*supply & distribution |
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Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded. |
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2041-1723 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4513 |
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