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Olesen, J.E.; Børgesen, C.D.; Elsgaard, L.; Palosuo, T.; Rötter, R.P.; Skjelvåg, A.O.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Börjesson, T.; Trnka, M.; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Brisson, N.; Eitzinger, J.; van Asselt, E.D.; Oberforster, M.; van der Fels-Klerx, H.J. |
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Title |
Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Addit. Contam. Part A |
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Volume  |
29 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
1527-1542 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture/*methods/trends; Avena/growth & development; *Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Edible Grain/*growth & development; Europe; Flowering Tops/growth & development; Forecasting/methods; Germination; Humans; Models, Biological; Models, Statistical; Seasons; Seeds/growth & development; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Triticum/growth & development; Zea mays/growth & development |
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Abstract |
The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied. |
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1944-0049 1944-0057 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4590 |
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Author |
Elsgaard, L.; Børgesen, C.D.; Olesen, J.E.; Siebert, S.; Ewert, F.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rötter, R.P.; Skjelvåg, A.O. |
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Title |
Shifts in comparative advantages for maize, oat and wheat cropping under climate change in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Addit. Contam. Part A |
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Volume |
29 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
1514-1526 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture/*economics/trends; Animals; Avena/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; *Climate Change/economics; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; Europe; *Food Safety; Forecasting/methods; Fungi/growth & development/metabolism; Humans; Models, Biological; Models, Economic; Mycotoxins/analysis/biosynthesis; Soil Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Triticum/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; Uncertainty; Weather; Zea mays/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology |
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Climate change is anticipated to affect European agriculture, including the risk of emerging or re-emerging feed and food hazards. Indirectly, climate change may influence such hazards (e.g. the occurrence of mycotoxins) due to geographic shifts in the distribution of major cereal cropping systems and the consequences this may have for crop rotations. This paper analyses the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45-65°N) and provides model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively. The projected cropping shares are based on the output from the two RCMs and on algorithms derived for the relation between meteorological data and observed cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat. The observed cropping shares show a south-to-north gradient, where maize had its maximum at 45-55°N, oat had its maximum at 55-65°N, and wheat was more evenly distributed along the latitudes in Europe. Under the projected climate changes, there was a general increase in maize cropping shares, whereas for oat no areas showed distinct increases. For wheat, the projected changes indicated a tendency towards higher cropping shares in the northern parts and lower cropping shares in the southern parts of the study area. The present modelling approach represents a simplification of factors determining the distribution of cereal crops, and also some uncertainties in the data basis were apparent. A promising way of future model improvement could be through a systematic analysis and inclusion of other variables, such as key soil properties and socio-economic conditions, influencing the comparative advantages of specific crops. |
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1944-0049 1944-0057 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4585 |
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Author |
Lehtonen, H. |
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Title |
Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Agricultural and Food Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Food Science |
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24 |
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3 |
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219-234 |
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Keywords |
agricultural sector modelling; economic adjustment; global prices; climate change; finnish agriculture; crop production; land-use; challenge; ensembles; Finland; Europe; policy |
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Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production. |
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2016-07-22 |
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1459-6067 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4750 |
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Tao, F.; Roetter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Hernandez Diaz-Ambrona, C.G.; Ines Minguez, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Specka, X.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F.; Dambreville, A.; Martre, P.; Rodriguez, L.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gaiser, T.; Hohn, J.G.; Salo, T.; Ferrise, R.; Bindi, M.; Cammarano, D.; Schulman, A.H. |
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Title |
Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
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24 |
Issue |
3 |
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1291-1307 |
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Keywords |
barley; climate change; Europe; impact; super-ensemble; uncertainty; Nitrogen Dynamics; Multimodel Ensembles; Simulation-Models; Change; Scenarios; Yield; Rice; Weather; Growth; Wheat; Maize |
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Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was -4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981-2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple-ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources. |
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2018-03-08 |
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1354-1013 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5194 |
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Author |
Shrestha, S.; Ciaian, P.; Himics, M.; van Doorslaer, B. |
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Impacts of climate change on EU agriculture |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics |
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16 |
Issue |
2 |
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24-39 |
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Keywords |
climate change; agricultural productivity; adaptation; Europe |
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The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application) simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation. |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4615 |
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