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Author Stürck, J.; Levers, C.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verkerk, P.J.; Kuemmerle, T.; Helming, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Tabeau, A.; Popp, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Verburg, P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe Type Journal Article
  Year (up) 2015 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg. Environ. Change  
  Volume Issue Pages in press  
  Keywords land use change; land system; modeling; scenario; Europe; ecosystem services  
  Abstract Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1436-3798 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4996  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Sinabell, F. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria Type Journal Article
  Year (up) 2015 Publication Climate Research Abbreviated Journal Clim. Res.  
  Volume 65 Issue Pages 205-220  
  Keywords Climate change impact; Adaptation; Soybean; EPIC; Common Agricultural Policy; Land use  
  Abstract Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%.  
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  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0936-577x ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5012  
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Author Van Oijen, M.; Höglind, M. doi  openurl
  Title Toward a Bayesian procedure for using process-based models in plant breeding, with application to ideotype design Type Journal Article
  Year (up) 2016 Publication Euphytica Abbreviated Journal Euphytica  
  Volume 207 Issue 3 Pages 627-643  
  Keywords BASGRA; cold tolerance; genotype-environment interaction; plant breeding; process-based modelling; yield stability; grassland productivity; timothy regrowth; climate-change; water-deficit; forest models; late blight; leaf-area; calibration; growth; tolerance  
  Abstract Process-based grassland models (PBMs) simulate growth and development of vegetation over time. The models tend to have a large number of parameters that represent properties of the plants. To simulate different cultivars of the same species, different parameter values are required. Parameter differences may be interpreted as genetic variation for plant traits. Despite this natural connection between PBMs and plant genetics, there are only few examples of successful use of PBMs in plant breeding. Here we present a new procedure by which PBMs can help design ideotypes, i.e. virtual cultivars that optimally combine properties of existing cultivars. Ideotypes constitute selection targets for breeding. The procedure consists of four steps: (1) Bayesian calibration of model parameters using data from cultivar trials, (2) Estimating genetic variation for parameters from the combination of cultivar-specific calibrated parameter distributions, (3) Identifying parameter combinations that meet breeding objectives, (4) Translating model results to practice, i.e. interpreting parameters in terms of practical selection criteria. We show an application of the procedure to timothy (Phleum pratense L.) as grown in different regions of Norway.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0014-2336 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4820  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Sándor, R.; Barcza, Z.; Hidy, D.; Lellei-Kovács, E.; Ma, S.; Bellocchi, G. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Modelling of grassland fluxes in Europe: evaluation of two biogeochemical models Type Journal Article
  Year (up) 2016 Publication Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment Abbreviated Journal Agric. Ecosyst. Environ.  
  Volume 215 Issue Pages 1-19  
  Keywords carbon-water fluxes; climate change; grasslands; model comparison; net ecosystem exchange; terrestrial carbon balance; pasture simulation-model; climate-change; nitrous-oxide; land-use; co2; photosynthesis; responses; water  
  Abstract Two independently developed simulation models – the grassland-specific PaSim and the biome-generic Biome-BGC MuSo (BBGC MuSo) – linking climate, soil, vegetation and management to ecosystem biogeochemical cycles were compared in a simulation of carbon (C) and water fluxes. The results were assessed against eddy-covariance flux data from five observational grassland sites representing a range of conditions in Europe: Grillenburg in Germany, Laqueuille in France with both extensive and intensive management, Monte Bondone in Italy and Oensingen in Switzerland. Model comparison (after calibration) gave substantial agreement, the performances being marginal to acceptable for weekly-aggregated gross primary production and ecosystem respiration (R-2 similar to 0.66 – 0.91), weekly evapotranspiration (R-2 similar to 0.78 – 0.94), soil water content in the topsoil (R-2 similar to 0.1 -0.7) and soil temperature (R-2 similar to 0.88 – 0.96). The bias was limited to the range -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) for C fluxes (-11 to 8 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of BBGC MuSo, and -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of PaSim) and -4 to 6 mm week for water fluxes (with BBGC MuSo providing somewhat higher estimates than PaSim), but some higher relative root mean square errors indicate low accuracy for prediction, especially for net ecosystem exchange The sensitivity of simulated outputs to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature and precipitation indicate, with certain agreement between the two models, that C outcomes are dominated by [CO2] and temperature gradients, and are less due to precipitation. ET rates decrease with increasing [CO2] in PaSim (consistent with experimental knowledge), while lack of appropriate stomatal response could be a limit in BBGC MuSo responsiveness. Results of the study indicate that some of the errors might be related to the improper representation of soil water content and soil temperature. Improvement is needed in the model representations of soil processes (especially soil water balance) that strongly influence the biogeochemical cycles of managed and unmanaged grasslands. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0167-8809 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4808  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Coles, G.D.; Wratten, S.D.; Porter, J.R. doi  openurl
  Title Food and nutritional security requires adequate protein as well as energy, delivered from whole-year crop production Type Journal Article
  Year (up) 2016 Publication PeerJ Abbreviated Journal PeerJ  
  Volume 4 Issue Pages 17  
  Keywords Agroecology; Forage utilisation; Food costs; Nutrition; Whole-year; production; New Zealand; Food access; Food security; humans  
  Abstract Human food security requires the production of sufficient quantities of both high-quality protein and dietary energy. In a series of case-studies from New Zealand, we show that while production of food ingredients from crops on arable land can meet human dietary energy requirements effectively, requirements for high-quality protein are met more efficiently by animal production from such land. We present a model that can be used to assess dietary energy and quality-corrected protein production from various crop and crop/animal production systems, and demonstrate its utility. We extend our analysis with an accompanying economic analysis of commercially available pre-prepared or simply-cooked foods that can be produced from our case-study crop and animal products. We calculate the per-person, per-day cost of both quality-corrected protein and dietary energy as provided in the processed foods. We conclude that mixed dairy/cropping systems provide the greatest quantity of high quality protein per unit price to the consumer, have the highest food energy production and can support the dietary requirements of the highest number of people, when assessed as all-year-round production systems. Global food and nutritional security will largely be an outcome of national or regional agroeconomies addressing their town food needs. We hope that lour model will be used for similar analyses of food production systems in other countries, agroecological zones and economies.  
  Address 2016-09-13  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2167-8359 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4774  
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