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Author García-López, J.; Lorite, I.J.; García-Ruiz, R.; Domínguez, J. doi  openurl
  Title Evaluation of three simulation approaches for assessing yield of rainfed sunflower in a Mediterranean environment for climate change impact modelling Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Climatic Change Abbreviated Journal (down) Clim. Change  
  Volume 124 Issue 1-2 Pages 147-162  
  Keywords winter-wheat; water-stress; irrigation management; high-temperature; oil quality; oilcrop-sun; crop model; responses; variability; growth  
  Abstract The determination of the impact of climate change on crop yield at a regional scale requires the development of new modelling methodologies able to generate accurate yield estimates with reduced available data. In this study, different simulation approaches for assessing yield have been evaluated. In addition to two well-known models (AquaCrop and Stewart function), a methodological proposal considering a simplified approach using an empirical model (SOM) has been included in the analysis. This empirical model was calibrated using rainfed sunflower experimental field data from three sites located in Andalusia, southern Spain, and validated using two additional locations, providing very satisfactory results compared with the other models with higher data requirements. Thus, only requiring weather data (accumulated rainfall from the beginning of the season fixed on September 1st, and maximum temperature during flowering) the approach accurately described the temporal and spatial yield variability observed (RMSE = 391 kg ha(-1)). The satisfactory results for assessing yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions obtained in this study demonstrate the utility of empirical approaches with few data requirements, providing an excellent decision tool for climate change impact analyses at a regional scale, where available data is very limited.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN 0165-0009 1573-1480 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4622  
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Author Dumont, B.; Vancutsem, F.; Seutin, B.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. url  openurl
  Title Simulation de la croissance du blé à l’aide de modèles écophysiologiques: Synthèse bibliographique des méthodes, potentialités et limitations Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication Biotechnologie, Agronomie, Société et Environnement Abbreviated Journal (down) Biotechnologie, Agronomie, Société et Environnement  
  Volume 163 Issue Pages 376-386  
  Keywords crops; growth; soil; Triticum; wheats; calibration; optimization methods  
  Abstract Crop models describe the growth and development of a crop interacting with its surrounding agro-environmental conditions (soil, climate and the close conditions of the plant). However, the implementation of such models remains difficult because of the high number of explanatory variables and parameters. It often happens that important discrepancies appear between measured and simulated values. This article aims to highlight the different sources of uncertainty related to the use of crop models, as well as the actual methods that allow a compensation for or, at least, a consideration of these sources of error during analysis of the model results. This article presents a literature review, which firstly synthesises the general mathematical structure of crop models. The main criteria for evaluating crop models are then described. Finally, several methods used for improving models are given. Parameter estimation methods, including frequentist and Bayesian approaches, are presented and data assimilation methods are reviewed.  
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  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language French Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
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  ISSN ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4584  
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Author Kässi, P.; Känkänen, H.; Niskanen, O.; Lehtonen, H.; Höglind, M. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Farm level approach to manage grass yield variation under climate change in Finland and north-western Russia Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Biosystems Engineering Abbreviated Journal (down) Biosystems Engineering  
  Volume 140 Issue Pages 11-22  
  Keywords silage grass; risk management; dairy farms; buffer storage; agricultural economics; grassland modelling; dairy-cows; impact; security; timothy; harvest; future; growth; norway; europe; time  
  Abstract Cattle feeding in Northern Europe is based on grass silage, but grass growth is highly dependent on weather conditions. If ensuring sufficient silage availability in every situation is prioritised, the lowest expected yield level determines the cultivated area in farmers’ decision-making. One way to manage the variation in grass yield is to increase grass production and silage storage capacity so that they exceed the annual consumption at the farm. The cost of risk management in the current and the projected future climate was calculated taking into account grassland yield and yield variability for three study areas under current and mid-21st century climate conditions. The dataset on simulated future grass yields used as input for the risk management calculations were taken from a previously published simulation study. Strategies investigated included using up to 60% more silage grass area than needed in a year with average grass yields, and storing silage for up to 6 months more than consumed in a year (buffer storage). According to the results, utilising an excess silage grass area of 20% and a silage buffer storage capacity of 6 months were the most economic ways of managing drought risk in both the baseline climate and the projected climate of 2046-2065. It was found that the silage yield risk due to drought is likely to decrease in all studied locations, but the drought risk and costs implied still remain significant. (C) 2015 IAgrE. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1537-5110 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4671  
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Author Ghaley, B.B.; Porter, J.R. doi  openurl
  Title Determination of biomass accumulation in mixed belts of Salix, Corylus and Alnus species in combined food and energy production system Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Biomass and Bioenergy Abbreviated Journal (down) Biomass and Bioenergy  
  Volume 63 Issue Pages 86-91  
  Keywords allometric equation; destructive and non-destructive method; stool and biomass yield; bio-energy belts; food and fodder crops; short rotation woody crops; short-rotation forestry; willow; plantations; sweden; coppice; equations; growth; poplar; trees; yield  
  Abstract Given the energetic, demographic and the climatic challenges faced today, we designed a combined food and energy (CFE) production system integrating food, fodder and mixed belts of Salix, Alnus and Corylus sp. as bioenergy belts. The objective was to assess the shoot dry weight-stem diameter allometric relationship based on stem diameter at 10 (SD10) and 55 cm (SD55) from the shoot base in the mixed bioenergy belts. Allometric relations based on SD10 and SD55 explained 90-96% and 90-98% of the variation in shoot dry weights respectively with no differences between the destructive and the non-destructive methods. The individual stool yields varied widely among the species and within willow species with biomass yield range of 37.60-92.00 oven dry tons (ODT) ha (1) in 4-year growth cycle. The biomass yield of the bioenergy belt, predicted by allometric relations was 48.84 ODT ha 1 in 4-year growth cycle corresponding to 12.21 ODT ha (1) year (1). The relatively high biomass yield is attributed to the border effects and the ‘fertilizing effect’ of alder due to nitrogen fixation, benefitting other SWRC components. On termination of 4-year growth cycle, the bioenergy belts were harvested and the biomass yield recorded was 12.54 ODT ha (1) year (1), in close proximity to the biomass yield predicted by the allometric equations, lending confidence and robustness of the model for biomass yield determination in such integrated agro-ecosystem. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0961-9534 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4624  
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Author Müller, C. doi  openurl
  Title African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Annual Review of Nutrition Abbreviated Journal (down) Ann. Rev. Nutr.  
  Volume 33 Issue 1 Pages 395-411  
  Keywords Africa/epidemiology; *Climate Change/economics; Crops, Agricultural/economics/*growth & development; Diet/adverse effects/economics; Forecasting; *Global Health/economics/trends; Humans; Malnutrition/economics/epidemiology/prevention & control; *Models, Theoretical; Risk; Soil/chemistry; Water Resources/economics  
  Abstract Climate change impact assessments on agriculture are subject to large uncertainties, as demonstrated in the present review of recent studies for Africa. There are multiple reasons for differences in projections, including uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and patterns of climate change; assumptions on future management, aggregation, and spatial extent; and methodological differences. Still, all projections agree that climate change poses a significant risk to African agriculture. Most projections also see the possibility of increasing agricultural production under climate change, especially if suitable adaptation measures are assumed. Climate change is not the only projected pressure on African agriculture, which struggles to meet demand today and may need to feed an additional one billion individuals by 2050. Development strategies are urgently needed, but they will need to consider future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing synergies between climate change adaptation and development can be exploited.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0199-9885 1545-4312 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4496  
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