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Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Dell’Unto, D.; Deligios, P.; Doro, L.; Lacetera, N.; Mula, L.; Pasqui, M.; Quaresima, S.; Vitali, A.; Roggero, P.P. |
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Title |
Winners and losers from climate change in agriculture: Insights from a case study in the Mediterranean basin |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
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Volume |
147 |
Issue |
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Pages |
65-75 |
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Keywords  |
Adaptation of farms to CC; Mediterranean region; Discrete Stochastic Programming; Regional Atmospheric Modelling System; Crop models; Livestock models |
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Abstract |
The Mediterranean region has always shown a marked inter-annual variability in seasonal weather, creating uncertainty in decisional processes of cultivation and livestock breeding that should not be neglected when modeling farmers’ adaptive responses. This is especially relevant when assessing the impact of climate change (CC), which modifies the atmospheric variability and generates new uncertainty conditions, and the possibility of adaptation of agriculture. Our analysis examines this aspect reconstructing the effects of inter-annual climate variability in a diversified farming district that well represents a wide range of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems in the Mediterranean area. We used a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System and a weather generator to generate 150 stochastic years of the present and near future climate. Then, we implemented calibrated crop and livestock models to estimate the corresponding productive responses in the form of probability distribution functions (PDFs) under the two climatic conditions. We assumed these PDFs able to represent the expectations of farmers in a discrete stochastic programming (DSP) model that reproduced their economic behaviour under uncertainty conditions. The comparison of the results in the two scenarios provided an assessment of the impact of CC, also taking into account the possibility of adjustment allowed by present technologies and price regimes. The DSP model is built in blocks that represent the farm typologies operating in the study area, each one with its own resource endowment, decisional constraints and economic response. Under this latter aspect, major differences emerged among farm typologies and sub-zones of the study area. A crucial element of differentiation was water availability, since only irrigated C3 crops took full advantage from the fertilization effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Rainfed crop production was depressed by the expected reduction of spring rainfall associated to the higher temperatures. So, a dualism emerges between the smaller impact on crop production in the irrigated plain sub-zone, equipped with collective water networks and abundant irrigation resources, and the major negative impact in the hilly area, where these facilities and resources are absent. However intensive dairy farming was also negatively affected in terms of milk production and quality, and cattle mortality because of the increasing summer temperatures. This provides explicit guidance for addressing strategic adaptation policies and for framing farmers’ perception of CC, in order to help them to develop an awareness of the phenomena that are already in progress, which is a prerequisite for effective adaptation responses. |
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0308521x |
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CropM, LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4756 |
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Hamidov, A.; Helming, K.; Bellocchi, G.; Bojar, W.; Dalgaard, T.; Ghaley, B.B.; Hoffmann, C.; Holman, I.; Holzkämper, A.; Krzeminska, D.; Kværnø, S.H.; Lehtonen, H.; Niedrist, G.; Øygarden, L.; Reidsma, P.; Roggero, P.P.; Rusu, T.; Santos, C.; Seddaiu, G.; Skarbøvik, E.; Ventrella, D.; Żarski, J.; Schönhart, M. |
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Title |
Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Land Degradation & Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Land Degradation & Development |
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29 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
2378-2389 |
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Keywords |
agricultural adaptation; DPSIR; regional case-studies; soil degradation; Sustainable Development Goals; Agricultural Practices; Ecosystem Services; Land Management; Netherlands; Farm; Environment; Challenges; Catchments; Framework; Nitrogen |
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Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions. |
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2018-10-16 |
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1085-3278 |
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XC, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5210 |
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Ponti, L.; Gutierrez, A.P.; Ruti, P.M.; Dell’Aquila, A. |
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Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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111 |
Issue |
15 |
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5598-5603 |
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Keywords |
Animals; *Biodiversity; *Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends; Crops, Agricultural/*economics/physiology; Geography; Host-Parasite Interactions; Mediterranean Region; Models, Biological; Models, Economic; Olea/*parasitology/*physiology; Tephritidae/*physiology; Olea europaea; desertification; ecological impacts; economic impacts; species interactions |
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The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests. |
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0027-8424 1091-6490 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4539 |
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Hidy, D.; Barcza, Z.; Haszpra, L.; Churkina, G.; Pintér, K.; Nagy, Z. |
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Title |
Development of the Biome-BGC model for simulation of managed herbaceous ecosystems |
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Journal Article |
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2012 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
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226 |
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99-119 |
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biogeochemical model; biome-bgc; grassland; management; soil moisture; bayesian calibration; carbon flux model; regional applications; bayesian calibration; use efficiency; general-model; exchange; balance; climate; grassland; variability |
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Apart from measurements, numerical models are the most convenient instruments to analyze the carbon and water balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based Biome-BGC model is widely used to simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen within the vegetation, litter, and soil of unmanaged terrestrial ecosystems. Considering herbaceous vegetation related simulations with Biome-BGC, soil moisture and growing season control on ecosystem functioning is inaccurate due to the simple soil hydrology and plant phenology representation within the model. Consequently, Biome-BGC has limited applicability in herbaceous ecosystems because (1) they are usually managed; (2) they are sensitive to soil processes, most of all hydrology; and (3) their carbon balance is closely connected with the growing season length. Our aim was to improve the applicability of Biome-BGC for managed herbaceous ecosystems by implementing several new modules, including management. A new index (heatsum growing season index) was defined to accurately estimate the first and the final days of the growing season. Instead of a simple bucket soil sub-model, a multilayer soil sub-model was implemented, which can handle the processes of runoff, diffusion and percolation. A new module was implemented to simulate the ecophysiological effect of drought stress on plant mortality. Mowing and grazing modules were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. After modifications, the Biome-BGC model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance-based measurement data collected in Hungarian managed grassland ecosystems. Model calibration was performed based on the Bayes theorem. As a result of these developments and calibration, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Comparison with measurement-based estimate showed that the start and the end of the growing season are now predicted with an average accuracy of 5 and 4 days instead of 46 and 85 days as in the original model. Regarding the different sites and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, evapotranspiration), relative errors were between 18-60% using the original model and 10-18% using the developed model; squares of the correlation coefficients were between 0.02-0.49 using the original model and 0.50-0.81 using the developed model. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0304-3800 |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4472 |
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Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Lorite, I.J.; Mínguez, M.I.; Lizaso, J.I.; Dosio, A.; Sanchez, E.; Ruiz-Ramos, M. |
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Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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65 |
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159-173 |
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Keywords |
climate change; impact; adaptation; maize; crop model; regional climate model; extreme temperature; elevated carbon-dioxide; iberian peninsula; future climate; mediterranean environment; crop productivity; model simulations; pollen viability; european climate; bias correction; change impacts |
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Climate projections indicate that rising temperatures will affect summer crops in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The aim of this study was to obtain projections of the impacts of rising temperatures, and of higher frequency of extreme events on irrigated maize, and to evaluate some adaptation strategies. The study was conducted at several locations in Andalusia using the CERES-Maize crop model, previously calibrated/validated with local experimental datasets. The simulated climate consisted of projections from regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; these were corrected for daily temperature and precipitation with regard to the E-OBS observational dataset. These bias-corrected projections were used with the CERES-Maize model to generate future impacts. Crop model results showed a decrease in maize yield by the end of the 21st century from 6 to 20%, a decrease of up to 25% in irrigation water requirements, and an increase in irrigation water productivity of up to 22%, due to earlier maturity dates and stomatal closure caused by CO2 increase. When adaptation strategies combining earlier sowing dates and cultivar changes were considered, impacts were compensated, and maize yield increased up to 14%, compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), with similar reductions in crop irrigation water requirements. Effects of extreme maximum temperatures rose to 40% at the end of the 21st century, compared with the baseline. Adaptation resulted in an overall reduction in extreme T-max damages in all locations, with the exception of Granada, where losses were limited to 8%. |
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2016-06-01 |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4738 |
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