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Moriondo, M.; Ferrise, R.; Trombi, G.; Brilli, L.; Dibari, C.; Bindi, M. |
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Title |
Modelling olive trees and grapevines in a changing climate |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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72 |
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Pages |
387-401 |
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Keywords |
tree crops; climate change; simulation models; crop yield; vitis-vinifera l.; air co2 enrichment; soil-water content; elevated co2; mediterranean basin; cropping systems; growth; yield; carbon; simulation |
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Abstract |
The models developed for simulating olive tree and grapevine yields were reviewed by focussing on the major limitations of these models for their application in a changing climate. Empirical models, which exploit the statistical relationship between climate and yield, and process based models, where crop behaviour is defined by a range of relationships describing the main plant processes, were considered. The results highlighted that the application of empirical models to future climatic conditions (i.e. future climate scenarios) is unreliable since important statistical approaches and predictors are still lacking. While process-based models have the potential for application in climate-change impact assessments, our analysis demonstrated how the simulation of many processes affected by warmer and CO2-enriched conditions may give rise to important biases. Conversely, some crop model improvements could be applied at this stage since specific sub-models accounting for the effect of elevated temperatures and CO2 concentration were already developed. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4691 |
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Author |
Challinor, A.J.; Smith, M.S.; Thornton, P. |
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Title |
Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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170 |
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2-7 |
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Keywords |
Climate models; Crop models; Ensembles; Climate change; Adaptation; Food security; Climate variability; Uncertainty; Crop yield |
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Abstract |
► Introduces the special issue on Agricultural prediction using climate model ensembles. ► Discuss remaining scientific challenges. ► Develops distinction between projection- and utility-based ensemble modelling. ► Recommendations made RE modelling and the analysis and reporting of uncertainty. Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop–climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality. |
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2015-09-23 |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4690 |
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Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title |
Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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10 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
045004 |
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climate change adaptation; scenario; farm diversity; crop simulation; bio-economic farm modelling; european-union; crop yields; agriculture; responses; models; wheat; variability; improvement; strategies; scenarios |
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Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world. |
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ISSN |
1748-9326 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4649 |
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Author |
Nendel, C.; Wieland, R.; Mirschel, W.; Specka, X.; Guddat, C.; Kersebaum, K.C. |
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Title |
Simulating regional winter wheat yields using input data of different spatial resolution |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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145 |
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67-77 |
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Keywords |
monica; agro-ecosystem model; dynamic modelling; scaling; input data; climate-change; crop yield; nitrogen dynamics; food security; mineral nitrogen; soil-moisture; scaling-up; model; maize; water |
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The success of using agro-ecosystem models for the high-resolution simulation of agricultural yields for larger areas is often hampered by a lack of input data. We investigated the effect of different spatially resolved soil and weather data used as input for the MONICA model on its ability to reproduce winter wheat yields in the Federal State of Thuringia, Germany (16,172 km(2)). The combination of one representative soil and one weather station was insufficient to reproduce the observed mean yield of 6.66 +/- 0.87 t ha(-1) for the federal state. Use of a 100 m x 100 m grid of soil and relief information combined with just one representative weather station yielded a good estimator (7.01 +/- 1.47 t ha(-1)). The soil and relief data grid used in combination with weather information from 14 weather stations in a nearest neighbour approach produced even better results (6.60 +/- 1.37 t ha(-1)); the same grid used with 39 additional rain gauges and an interpolation algorithm that included an altitude correction of temperature data slightly overpredicted the observed mean (7.36 +/- 1.17 t ha(-1)). It was concluded that the apparent success of the first two high-resolution approaches over the latter was based on two effects that cancelled each other out: the calibration of MONICA to match high-yield experimental data and the growth-defining and -limiting effect of weather data that is not representative for large parts of the region. At the county and farm level the MONICA model failed to reproduce the 1992-2010 time series of yields, which is partly explained by the fact that many growth-reducing factors were not considered in the model. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4498 |
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Author |
Höglind, M.; Thorsen, S.M.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
170 |
Issue |
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103-113 |
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Keywords |
climatic variability; frost damage; grass modelling; ice damage; multi-model ensemble; elevated co2 concentration; phleum-pratense l; timothy regrowth; change scenarios; winter survival; meadow fescue; crop yields; growth; frost; temperature |
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Forage-based dairy and livestock production is the backbone of agriculture in Northern Europe in economic terms. Changes in growing conditions that affect forage grass yield may have great economic consequences. This study assessed the impact of climate change on two grass species, timothy and ryegrass, at 14 locations in Northern Europe (Iceland, Scandinavia, Baltic countries) in a near-future scenario (2040-2065) compared with the baseline period 1960-1990. Local-scale climate scenarios were based on the CMIP3 multi-model ensembles of 15 global climate models in order to quantify the uncertainty in the impacts relating to highly uncertain projections of future climate. Potential yield of timothy, the most important perennial forage grass in Northern Europe, was simulated under the assumption of optimal overwintering conditions and current CO2 level, in order to obtain an estimate of the effect of changes in summer climate per se. The risk of frost and ice damage during winter was also assessed. The simulation results demonstrated that potential grass yield will increase throughout the study area, mainly as a result of increased growing temperatures. The yield response to climate change was slightly larger in irrigated than non-irrigated conditions (14% and 11%, respectively), due to larger water deficit for the 2050 scenario. However, a geo-climatic gradient was evident, with the largest predicted yield response at western locations. A geo-climatic gradient was also revealed with respect to potential frost damage, which was predicted to increase during winter in some areas east of the Baltic Sea for timothy, and for a larger number of locations both east and west of the Baltic Sea for perennial ryegrass. The risk of frost damage in spring was predicted to increase mainly in western parts of the study area. If frost damage to perennial ryegrass increases during winter, the expected increase in winter temperature due to global warming may not necessarily improve overwintering conditions, so the growing zone may not necessarily expand to the north and east of the study area by 2050. The uncertainty in impacts was frequently, but not consistently, greater in western than eastern locations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, LiveM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4492 |
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