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Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Casellas, E.; Hoffman, H.; Bindi, M.; Doro, L.; Eckersten, H.; Gaiser, T.; Grosz, B.; Haas, E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Klatt, S.; Kuhnert, M.; Lewan, E.; Maharjan, G.R.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Specka, X.; Trombi, G.; Villa, A.; Wang, E.; Weihermueller, L.; Yeluripati, J.; Zhao, Z.; Ewert, F.; Bergez, J.-E. |
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Title |
Management and spatial resolution effects on yield and water balance at regional scale in crop models |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
275 |
Issue |
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Pages |
184-195 |
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Keywords |
Drainage; Evapotranspiration; Aggregation; Decision rules; Scaling; winter-wheat yield; data aggregation; sowing dates; area index; input; data; carbon; growth; irrigation; productivity; assimilation |
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Abstract |
Due to the more frequent use of crop models at regional and national scale, the effects of spatial data input resolution have gained increased attention. However, little is known about the influence of variability in crop management on model outputs. A constant and uniform crop management is often considered over the simulated area and period. This study determines the influence of crop management adapted to climatic conditions and input data resolution on regional-scale outputs of crop models. For this purpose, winter wheat and maize were simulated over 30 years with spatially and temporally uniform management or adaptive management for North Rhine-Westphalia ((similar to)34 083 km(2)), Germany. Adaptive management to local climatic conditions was used for 1) sowing date, 2) N fertilization dates, 3) N amounts, and 4) crop cycle length. Therefore, the models were applied with four different management sets for each crop. Input data for climate, soil and management were selected at five resolutions, from 1 x 1 km to 100 x 100 km grid size. Overall, 11 crop models were used to predict regional mean crop yield, actual evapotranspiration, and drainage. Adaptive management had little effect (< 10% difference) on the 30-year mean of the three output variables for most models and did not depend on soil, climate, and management resolution. Nevertheless, the effect was substantial for certain models, up to 31% on yield, 27% on evapotranspiration, and 12% on drainage compared to the uniform management reference. In general, effects were stronger on yield than on evapotranspiration and drainage, which had little sensitivity to changes in management. Scaling effects were generally lower than management effects on yield and evapotranspiration as opposed to drainage. Despite this trend, sensitivity to management and scaling varied greatly among the models. At the annual scale, effects were stronger in certain years, particularly the management effect on yield. These results imply that depending on the model, the representation of management should be carefully chosen, particularly when simulating yields and for predictions on annual scale. |
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2020-02-14 |
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ISSN  |
0168-1923 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5225 |
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Author |
von Lampe, M.; Willenbockel, D.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Cai, Y.; Calvin, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mason, d’C., Daniel; Nelson, G.C.; Sands, R.D.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; van Meijl, H. |
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Title |
Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
3-3 |
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Keywords |
Computable general equilibrium; Partial equilibrium; Meta-analysis; Socioeconomic pathway; Climate change; Bioenergy; Land use; Model; intercomparison; land-use change; food demand; crop productivity; climate-change; future |
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Abstract |
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of real world commodity prices differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between -0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0169-5150 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4822 |
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Author |
Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Kyle, P.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; van Meijl, H.; Hasegawa, T.; Popp, A.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Wise, M. |
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Title |
Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
103-116 |
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Keywords |
energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison; greenhouse-gas emissions; land-use; energy; productivity; scenarios; policies; capture; storage; system |
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Abstract |
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise. |
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0169-5150 |
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Notes |
CropM, TradeM |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4532 |
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Author |
Müller, C.; Robertson, R.D. |
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Title |
Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
37-50 |
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Keywords |
climate change; crop modeling; agricultural productivity; land use; greenhouse-gas emissions; soil organic-carbon; sub-saharan africa; climate-change; elevated co2; land-use; system model; wheat yields; maize yields; agriculture |
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Abstract |
Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10-38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change. |
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0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4533 |
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Author |
De Pascale, S.; Maggio, A.; Orsini, F.; Stanghellini, C.; Heuvelink, E. |
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Title |
Growth response and radiation use efficiency in tomato exposed to short-term and long-term salinized soils |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Scientia Horticulturae |
Abbreviated Journal |
Scientia Horticulturae |
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Volume |
189 |
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Pages |
139-149 |
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Keywords |
Leaf osmotic adjustment; Stomatal resistance; Leaf water potential; Light; Salt stress; RUE; physiological-response; salt tolerance; drought stress; water-use; yield; nitrogen; interception; productivity; leaf; photosynthesis |
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Abstract |
Farmlands are increasingly exposed to degradation phenomena associated to climate change and agricultural practices, including irrigation. It is estimated that about 20% of the world’s irrigated land is salt affected. In this paper we aimed at evaluating the effect of seasonal and multiannual soil satinization on growth, yield, and radiation use efficiency of tomato in open field. Two field experiments were carried out at the Experimental Station of the University of Naples Federico II (latitude 40 degrees 31’N longitude 14 degrees 58’E) (Italy) on tomato during 2004 and 2005 to study the effect of five levels of water salinity: NSC (EC = 0.5 dS m(-1)), SW1 (EC= 2.3 dS m(-1)), SW2 (EC= 4.4 dS m(-1)), SW3 (EC= 8.5 dS m(-1)) and SW4 (EC= 15.7 dS m(-1)) in a soil exposed to one-season salinization (ST = short-term) and an adjacent soil exposed to >20 years salinization (LT = long-term). Plant growth, yield and fruit quality (pH, EC, total soluble solids and the concentration of reducing sugars and of titratable acids), and plant water relations were measured and radiation use efficiency (RUE) was calculated. Increasing water salinity negatively affected the leaf area index (LAI), radiation use efficiency (RUE) and above-ground dry weight (DW) accumulation resulting in lower total and marketable yield. Maximum total and marketable yield obtained with the NSC treatment were respectively 117.9 and 111.0 Mg ha(-1) in 2004 and 113.1 and 107.9 Mg ha(-1) in 2005. Although the smaller leaf area of salinized plants was largely responsible for reduced RUE, we found approximately 50% of this reduction to be accounted for by processes other than changed crop architecture. These may include an increased stomatal resistance, increased mesophyll resistance and other impaired metabolic functions that may occur at high salinity. Remarkably, we found that LT salinized plants had a slightly better efficiency of use of intercepted radiation (RUEIR) at a given EC of soil extract than ST salinized plants indicating that LT salinization, and consequent permanent modifications of the soil physical properties, may trigger additional physiological mechanisms of adaptation compared to ST salinized plants. These differences are relevant in light of the evolution of salinized areas, also in response to climate change. |
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0304-4238 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4557 |
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