|
Records |
Links |
|
Author |
Lotze-Campen, H.; Verburg, P.H.; Popp, A.; Lindner, M.; Verkerk, P.J.; Moiseyev, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Helming, J.; Tabeau, A.; Schulp, C.J.E.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Lavalle, C.; e Silva, F.B.; Walz, A.; Bodirsky, B. |
|
|
Title |
A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg. Environ. Change |
|
|
Volume |
18 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
751-762 |
|
|
Keywords |
Land use change; Integrated modelling; Cross-scale interaction; Nature protection; Impact assessment |
|
|
Abstract |
Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1436-3798 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
TradeM |
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5004 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Lehtonen, H.S.; Irz, X. |
|
|
Title |
Impacts of reducing red meat consumption on agricultural production in Finland |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agriculture and Food Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agriculture and Food Science |
|
|
Volume |
22 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
356-370 |
|
|
Keywords |
agricultural sector modelling; food demand; greenhouse gas mitigation; agricultural policy; agricultural economics |
|
|
Abstract |
This paper summarises the simulated effects on Finnish agrcultural production and trade of a 20% decrease in Finnish demand for red meat (beef, pork, lamb). According to our results, reduced red meat consumption would be offset by increased consumption of poultry meat, eggs, dairy products and fish, as well as small increases in consumption of fruits and vegetables, peas, nuts, cereal products and sweets. By including the derived demand changes in an agricultural sector model, we show that livestock production in Finland, incentivised by national production-linked payments for milk and bovine animals, would decrease by much less than 20% due to the complex nature of agricultural production and trade. Overall, assuming unchanged consumer preferences and agricultural policy, a 20% reduction in red meat consumption is not likely to lead to a substantial decrease in livestock production or changed land use, or greenhouse gas emissions, from Finnish agriculture. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1795-1895 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4607 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Lehtonen, H. |
|
|
Title |
Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Food Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Food Science |
|
|
Volume |
24 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
219-234 |
|
|
Keywords |
agricultural sector modelling; economic adjustment; global prices; climate change; finnish agriculture; crop production; land-use; challenge; ensembles; Finland; Europe; policy |
|
|
Abstract |
Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production. |
|
|
Address |
2016-07-22 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1459-6067 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4750 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Kuhnert, M.; Yeluripati, J.; Smith, P.; Hoffmann, H.; van Oijen, M.; Constantin, J.; Coucheney, E.; Dechow, R.; Eckersten, H.; Gaiser, T.; Grosz, B.; Haas, E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Kiese, R.; Klatt, S.; Lewan, E.; Nendel, C.; Raynal, H.; Sosa, C.; Specka, X.; Teixeira, E.; Wang, E.; Weihermüller, L.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, Z.; Ogle, S.; Ewert, F. |
|
|
Title |
Impact analysis of climate data aggregation at different spatial scales on simulated net primary productivity for croplands |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
|
|
Volume |
88 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
41-52 |
|
|
Keywords |
Net primary production; NPP; Scaling; Extreme events; Crop modelling; Climate Data; aggregation |
|
|
Abstract |
For spatial crop and agro-systems modelling, there is often a discrepancy between the scale of measured driving data and the target resolution. Spatial data aggregation is often necessary, which can introduce additional uncertainty into the simulation results. Previous studies have shown that climate data aggregation has little effect on simulation of phenological stages, but effects on net primary production (NPP) might still be expected through changing the length of the growing season and the period of grain filling. This study investigates the impact of spatial climate data aggregation on NPP simulation results, applying eleven different models for the same study region (∼34,000 km2), situated in Western Germany. To isolate effects of climate, soil data and management were assumed to be constant over the entire study area and over the entire study period of 29 years. Two crops, winter wheat and silage maize, were tested as monocultures. Compared to the impact of climate data aggregation on yield, the effect on NPP is in a similar range, but is slightly lower, with only small impacts on averages over the entire simulation period and study region. Maximum differences between the five scales in the range of 1–100 km grid cells show changes of 0.4–7.8% and 0.0–4.8% for wheat and maize, respectively, whereas the simulated potential NPP averages of the models show a wide range (1.9–4.2 g C m−2 d−1 and 2.7–6.1 g C m−2 d−1for wheat and maize, respectively). The impact of the spatial aggregation was also tested for shorter time periods, to see if impacts over shorter periods attenuate over longer periods. The results show larger impacts for single years (up to 9.4% for wheat and up to 13.6% for maize). An analysis of extreme weather conditions shows an aggregation effect in vulnerability up to 12.8% and 15.5% between the different resolutions for wheat and maize, respectively. Simulations of NPP averages over larger areas (e.g. regional scale) and longer time periods (several years) are relatively insensitive to climate data. |
|
|
Address |
2016-09-13 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
Newsletter July |
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1161-0301 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4775 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Kipling, R.P.; Topp, C.F.E.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; Cortignani, R.; del Prado, A.; Dono, G.; Faverdin, P.; Graux, A.-I.; Hutchings, N.J.; Lauwers, L.; Gulzari, S.O.; Reidsma, P.; Rolinski, S.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Sandars, D.L.; Sandor, R.; Schoenhart, M.; Seddaiu, G.; van Middelkoop, J.; Shrestha, S.; Weindl, I.; Eory, V. |
|
|
Title |
To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
|
|
Volume |
120 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
Unsp 104492 |
|
|
Keywords |
Adaptation; Agricultural modelling; Climate change; Research challenges; greenhouse-gas emissions; farm-level adaptation; land-use; food; security; adapting agriculture; livestock production; decision-making; change impacts; dairy farms; crop |
|
|
Abstract |
Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change. |
|
|
Address |
2020-02-14 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1364-8152 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5223 |
|
Permanent link to this record |