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Author Rivington, M.; Wallach, D. url  openurl
  Title Quantified Evidence of Error Propagation Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-C4.2.3  
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  Abstract Error propagation within models is an issue that requires a structured approach involving the testing of individual equations and evaluation of the consequences of error creation from imperfect equation and model structure on estimates of interest made by a model. This report briefly covers some of the key issues in error propagation and sets out several concepts, across a range of complexity, that may be used to organise an investigation into error propagation. No Label  
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  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2102  
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Author Wallach, D.; Rivington, M. url  openurl
  Title Identification and quantification of differences between models Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-C4.2.2  
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  Abstract A major goal of crop model inter-comparison is model improvement, and an important intermediate step toward that goal is understanding in some detail how models differ, and the consequences of those differences. This report is intended as a first attempt at describing possible techniques for relating differences between model outputs to specific aspects of the models. No Label  
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  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2101  
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Author Wallach, D.; Rivington, M. url  openurl
  Title Standardised methods and protocols based on current best practices to conduct sensitivity analysis Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-C4.2.1  
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  Abstract The purpose of this report is to propose a general procedure for sensitivity analysis when used to evaluate system sensitivity to climate change, including uncertainty information. While sensitivity analysis has been largely used to evaluate how uncertainties in inputs or parameters propagate through the model and manifest themselves in uncertainties in model outputs, there is much less experience with sensitivity analysis as a tool for studying how sensitive a system is to changes in inputs. This report should help make clear the differences between these two uses of sensitivity analysis, and provide guidance as to the procedure for using sensitivity analysis for evaluating system sensitivity to climate change. No Label  
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  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2100  
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Author Rivington, M.; Wallach, D. url  openurl
  Title Communication strategy, including design of tools for more effective communication of uncertainty Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-C4.1.4  
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  Abstract Communication is the key link between the generation of information by MACSUR about the uncertainty of climate change impacts on future food security and how information is used by decision makers. It is therefore important to make available the common tools for reporting uncertainty, with a discussion of the advantages or difficulties of each. That is the purpose of this report. No Label  
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  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2099  
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Author Wallach, D.; Rivington, M. url  openurl
  Title A framework for assessing the uncertainty in crop model predictions Type Report
  Year 2014 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 3 Issue Pages D-C4.1.2  
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  Abstract It is of major importance in modeling to understand and quantify the uncertainty in model predictions, both in order to know how much confidence to have in those predictions, and as a first step toward model improvement. Here we show that there are basically three different approaches to evaluating uncertainty, and we explain the advantages and drawbacks of each. This is a necessary first step toward developing protocols for evaluation of uncertainty and so obtaining a clearer picture of the reliability of crop models. No Label  
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  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2231  
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