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Author Wallach, D.; Rivington, M. url  openurl
  Title Development of a common set of methods and protocols for assessing and communicating uncertainties Type Report
  Year 2013 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 2 Issue Pages D-C4.1.1  
  Keywords (up)  
  Abstract This reports sets out an outline approach to create definitions of uncertainty and how it might be classified. This is not a prescriptive approach rather it should be seen as a starting point from which further development can be made by consensus with CropM partners and across MACSUR Themes. We propose both a numerical quantification of uncertainty and text based classification scheme. The rational is to be able to both establish the terms and definitions in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on model estimates and have a scheme to enable identification of connectivity between types and sources of uncertainty. The aim is to establish a common set of terms and structure within which they operate that can be used to guide work within CropM. No Label  
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  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2241  
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Author Wallach, D.; Rivington, M. url  openurl
  Title A framework for assessing the uncertainty in crop model predictions Type Report
  Year 2014 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 3 Issue Pages D-C4.1.2  
  Keywords (up)  
  Abstract It is of major importance in modeling to understand and quantify the uncertainty in model predictions, both in order to know how much confidence to have in those predictions, and as a first step toward model improvement. Here we show that there are basically three different approaches to evaluating uncertainty, and we explain the advantages and drawbacks of each. This is a necessary first step toward developing protocols for evaluation of uncertainty and so obtaining a clearer picture of the reliability of crop models. No Label  
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  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2231  
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Author Rivington, M.; Wallach, D. url  openurl
  Title Quantified Evidence of Error Propagation Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-C4.2.3  
  Keywords (up)  
  Abstract Error propagation within models is an issue that requires a structured approach involving the testing of individual equations and evaluation of the consequences of error creation from imperfect equation and model structure on estimates of interest made by a model. This report briefly covers some of the key issues in error propagation and sets out several concepts, across a range of complexity, that may be used to organise an investigation into error propagation. No Label  
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  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2102  
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Author Rivington, M.; Wallach, D. url  openurl
  Title Information to support input data quality and model improvement Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-C4.2.4  
  Keywords (up)  
  Abstract Data quality is a key factor in determining the quality of model estimates and hence a models’ overall utility. Good models run with poor quality explanatory variables and parameters will produce meaningless estimates. Many models are now well developed and have been shown to perform well where and when good quality data is available. Hence a major limitation now to further use of models in new locations and applications is likely to be the availability of good quality data. Improvements in the quality of data may be seen as the starting point of further model improvement, in that better data itself will lead to more accurate model estimates (i.e. through better calibration), and it will facilitate reduction of model residual error by enabling refinements to model equations. This report sets out why data quality is important as well as the basis for additional investment in improving data quality. No Label  
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  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2103  
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Author Rivington, M.; Wallach, D. url  openurl
  Title Communication strategy, including design of tools for more effective communication of uncertainty Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-C4.1.4  
  Keywords (up)  
  Abstract Communication is the key link between the generation of information by MACSUR about the uncertainty of climate change impacts on future food security and how information is used by decision makers. It is therefore important to make available the common tools for reporting uncertainty, with a discussion of the advantages or difficulties of each. That is the purpose of this report. No Label  
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  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2099  
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