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Kahiluoto, H.; Kaseva, J.; Hakala, K.; Himanen, S.J.; Jauhiainen, L.; Rötter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Trnka, M. |
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Title |
Cultivating resilience by empirically revealing response diversity |
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Journal Article |
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Year  |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
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Volume |
25 |
Issue |
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Pages |
186-193 |
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Keywords |
generic approach; climate change; food security; agrifood systems; cultivars; adaptive capacity; climate-change; functional diversity; plant-communities; genetic diversity; biodiversity; ecosystems; management; redundancy; evenness; weather |
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Abstract |
Intensified climate and market turbulence requires resilience to a multitude of changes. Diversity reduces the sensitivity to disturbance and fosters the capacity to adapt to various future scenarios. What really matters is diversity of responses. Despite appeals to manage resilience, conceptual developments have not yet yielded a break-through in empirical applications. Here, we present an approach to empirically reveal the ‘response diversity’: the factors of change that are critical to a system are identified, and the response diversity is determined based on the documented component responses to these factors. We illustrate this approach and its added value using an example of securing food supply in the face of climate variability and change. This example demonstrates that quantifying response diversity allows for a new perspective: despite continued increase in cultivar diversity of barley, the diversity in responses to weather declined during the last decade in the regions where most of the barley is grown in Finland. This was due to greater homogeneity in responses among new cultivars than among older ones. Such a decline in the response diversity indicates increased vulnerability and reduced resilience. The assessment serves adaptive management in the face of both ecological and socioeconomic drivers. Supplier diversity in the food retail industry in order to secure affordable food in spite of global price volatility could represent another application. The approach is, indeed, applicable to any system for which it is possible to adopt empirical information regarding the response by its components to the critical factors of variability and change. Targeting diversification in response to critical change brings efficiency into diversity. We propose the generic procedure that is demonstrated in this study as a means to efficiently enhance resilience at multiple levels of agrifood systems and beyond. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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0959-3780 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4525 |
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Graef, F.; Sieber, S.; Mutabazi, K.; Asch, F.; Biesalski, H.K.; Bitegeko, J.; Bokelmann, W.; Bruentrup, M.; Dietrich, O.; Elly, N.; Fasse, A.; Germer, J.U.; Grote, U.; Herrmann, L.; Herrmann, R.; Hoffmann, H.; Kahimba, F.C.; Kaufmann, B.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Kilembe, C.; Kimaro, A.; Kinabo, J.; König, B.; König, H.; Lana, M.; Levy, C.; Lyimo-Macha, J.; Makoko, B.; Mazoko, G.; Mbaga, S.H.; Mbogoro, W.; Milling, H.; Mtambo, K.; Mueller, J.; Mueller, C.; Mueller, K.; Nkonja, E.; Reif, C.; Ringler, C.; Ruvuga, S.; Schaefer, M.; Sikira, A.; Silayo, V.; Stahr, K.; Swai, E.; Tumbo, S.; Uckert, G. |
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Title |
Framework for participatory food security research in rural food value chains |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Food Security |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global Food Security |
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3 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
8-15 |
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Keywords |
food security; food value chain; action research; tanzania; research framework |
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Abstract |
Enhancing food security for poor and vulnerable people requires adapting rural food systems to various driving factors. Food security-related research should apply participatory action research that considers the entire food value chain to ensure sustained success. This article presents a research framework that focusses on determining, prioritising, testing, adapting and disseminating food securing upgrading strategies across the multiple components of rural food value chains. These include natural resources, Food production, processing, markets, consumption and waste management. Scientists and policy makers jointly use tools developed for assessing potentials for enhancing regional food security at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The research is being conducted in Tanzania as a case study for Sub-Saharan countries and is done in close collaboration with local, regional and national stakeholders, encompassing all activities across all different food sectors. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2211-9124 |
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CropM, TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4523 |
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Author |
Höhn, J.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Impact of global warming on European cereal production |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
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CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
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Volume |
9 |
Issue |
022 |
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1-15 |
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Climate change; Food security; Uncertainty; Wheat; Maize; Barley |
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This review examines relevant impact assessments identified by a literature search from 1991to date. A bibliographic search was applied to the CAB Abstracts database with a given searchstring. Resultant papers were checked for relevance, based on expert judgment. This yielded 91 papers, which were subjected to further analysis. Firstly, publication intensity over time and distribution by geographic location and cereal crop were examined. Next, for a given crop, the assessments and their outcomes were grouped by type and number of the change variables considered – that is, effects of climate change only, elevated CO 2 and technological progress(improved breeds, management). Finally, separately for individual countries/subregions and Europe as a whole, we examined whether and to what extent study results have changed over time, for example become more positive/negative. Based on our sample, we found that publication intensity increased exponentially during thelast 4 years, the majority of studies are Europe-wide, but some concentrated on a few countries(Italy, Spain and UK), whereby studies on wheat are clearly most popular. Taking the factor of technological progress into account has an overruling influence on results. Finally, over time, projected yield impacts have become more negative. This is in line with finding from global analyses, as reflected by the most recent comparison of agricultural impact chapters, of the 4thand 5th Assessment Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II.In the future, there is particular need to consider impacts under various incremental and transformational adaptation measures in more depth (e.g. their interconnections across scales)and with more breadth (e.g. anticipated new breeds). Follow-up reviews should also examine how projected impacts are changing with the new climate scenario data sets (CMIP5) and with improved impact models and assessment approaches. |
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1749-8848 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4524 |
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Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
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Journal of the Royal Society Interface |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. R. Soc. Interface |
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12 |
Issue |
112 |
Pages |
20150721 |
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Keywords |
climate change; extreme events; food security; winter wheat |
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Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1742-5689 1742-5662 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4819 |
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Weindl, I.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C.; Havlík, P.; Herrero, M.; Schmitz, C.; Rolinski, S. |
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Title |
Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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10 |
Issue |
9 |
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094021 |
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livestock; climate impacts; land use modeling; adaptation costs; production systems; greenhouse-gas emissions; global change; management implications; developing-countries; crop productivity; change mitigation; food security; model; impacts; carbon |
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Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource-and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction. |
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1748-9326 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4718 |
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