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Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Basso, B.; Ruane, A.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Brisson, N.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Pertuzzi; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Müller, C.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
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Title |
Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Crop Water Use under Climate Change |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2013 |
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CropM |
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Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2767 |
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Bonatti, M.; Schlindwein, S.L.; De Vasconcelos, A.C.F.; Sieber, S.; Agostini, L.R.D.; Lana, M.A.; Fantini, A.C.; Homem, L.H.I.; Canci, A. |
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Title |
Social organization and agricultural strategies to face climate variability: a case study in Guaraciaba, southern Brazil |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Sustainable Agriculture Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sustainable Agriculture Research |
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2 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
118 |
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Abstract |
Climate scenarios and projections have suggested that the impacts of climate change on land use will be noticed particularly by the communities that depend on natural resources for their subsistence. The climate vulnerability of poor communities varies greatly, but in general, climate change combines with other threats and becomes superimposed on existing vulnerabilities. This paper presents a case study that strives to understand the social organization in a vulnerable community of Guaraciaba, in southern Brazil, to investigate aspects of an adaptation strategy to climate change based on the local development and conservation of landraces of a set of crop species. Landraces are varieties better adapted to adversities, especially drought, which is an important threat to the famers in the region. Every farmer receives annually a “kit of biodiversity”, a set of local varieties with the amount of seeds necessary to be cultivated in order to produce enough food for the family. The study had a qualitative approach and was carried out through semi-structured interviews with technicians and 30% of the rural families who farm with landraces. The study concludes that the factors that make this adaptation strategy sustainable are: the ability to undertake actions strongly based on local socio-cultural needs (a social support network), biodiversity management practices designed to reduce external economic dependence, self management of genetic resources, the establishment of priorities based on locally available resources, a work plan for community participation (field days, a community based festival), the establishment of the roles of community in the planning and implementation of programs for biodiversity management. |
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1927-0518 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4600 |
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Author |
Höhn, J.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Impact of global warming on European cereal production |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
Abbreviated Journal |
CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
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9 |
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022 |
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1-15 |
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Climate change; Food security; Uncertainty; Wheat; Maize; Barley |
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This review examines relevant impact assessments identified by a literature search from 1991to date. A bibliographic search was applied to the CAB Abstracts database with a given searchstring. Resultant papers were checked for relevance, based on expert judgment. This yielded 91 papers, which were subjected to further analysis. Firstly, publication intensity over time and distribution by geographic location and cereal crop were examined. Next, for a given crop, the assessments and their outcomes were grouped by type and number of the change variables considered – that is, effects of climate change only, elevated CO 2 and technological progress(improved breeds, management). Finally, separately for individual countries/subregions and Europe as a whole, we examined whether and to what extent study results have changed over time, for example become more positive/negative. Based on our sample, we found that publication intensity increased exponentially during thelast 4 years, the majority of studies are Europe-wide, but some concentrated on a few countries(Italy, Spain and UK), whereby studies on wheat are clearly most popular. Taking the factor of technological progress into account has an overruling influence on results. Finally, over time, projected yield impacts have become more negative. This is in line with finding from global analyses, as reflected by the most recent comparison of agricultural impact chapters, of the 4thand 5th Assessment Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II.In the future, there is particular need to consider impacts under various incremental and transformational adaptation measures in more depth (e.g. their interconnections across scales)and with more breadth (e.g. anticipated new breeds). Follow-up reviews should also examine how projected impacts are changing with the new climate scenario data sets (CMIP5) and with improved impact models and assessment approaches. |
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1749-8848 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4524 |
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Kim, D.-G.; Thomas, A.D.; Pelster, D.; Rosenstock, T.S.; Sanz-Cobena, A. |
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Greenhouse gas emissions from natural ecosystems and agricultural lands in sub-Saharan Africa: synthesis of available data and suggestions for further research |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
Publication |
Biogeosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Biogeosciences |
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13 |
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16 |
Pages |
4789-4809 |
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nitrous-oxide emissions; soil CO2 efflux; N2O emissions; carbon-dioxide; agroforestry residues; improved-fallow; disturbance gradient; fertilizer; nitrogen; sampling frequency; gaseous emissions |
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This paper summarizes currently available data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from African natural ecosystems and agricultural lands. The available data are used to synthesize current understanding of the drivers of change in GHG emissions, outline the knowledge gaps, and suggest future directions and strategies for GHG emission research. GHG emission data were collected from 75 studies conducted in 22 countries (n = 244) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were by far the largest contributor to GHG emissions and global warming potential (GWP) in SSA natural terrestrial systems. CO2 emissions ranged from 3.3 to 57.0 Mg CO2 ha(-1) yr(-1), methane (CH4) emissions ranged from -4.8 to 3.5 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (-0.16 to 0.12 Mg CO2 equivalent (eq.) ha(-1) yr(-1)), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions ranged from -0.1 to 13.7 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (-0.03 to 4.1 Mg CO2 eq. ha(-1) yr(-1)). Soil physical and chemical properties, rewetting, vegetation type, forest management, and land-use changes were all found to be important factors affecting soil GHG emissions from natural terrestrial systems. In aquatic systems, CO2 was the largest contributor to total GHG emissions, ranging from 5.7 to 232.0 Mg CO2 ha(-1) yr(-1), followed by -26.3 to 2741.9 kgCH(4) ha(-1) yr(-1) (-0.89 to 93.2 Mg CO2 eq. ha(-1) yr(-1)) and 0.2 to 3.5 kg N2O ha(-1) yr(-1) (0.06 to 1.0 Mg CO2 eq. ha(-1) yr(-1)). Rates of all GHG emissions from aquatic systems were affected by type, location, hydrological characteristics, and water quality. In croplands, soil GHG emissions were also dominated by CO2, ranging from 1.7 to 141.2 Mg CO2 ha(-1) yr(-1), with -1.3 to 66.7 kgCH(4) ha(-1) yr(-1) (-0.04 to 2.3 Mg CO2 eq. ha(-1) yr(-1)) and 0.05 to 112.0 kg N2O ha(-1) yr(-1) (0.015 to 33.4 Mg CO2 eq. ha(-1) yr(-1)). N2O emission factors (EFs) ranged from 0.01 to 4.1 %. Incorporation of crop residues or manure with inorganic fertilizers invariably resulted in significant changes in GHG emissions, but results were inconsistent as the magnitude and direction of changes were differed by gas. Soil GHG emissions from vegetable gardens ranged from 73.3 to 132.0 Mg CO2 ha(-1) yr(-1) and 53.4 to 177.6 kg N2O ha(-1) yr(-1) (15.9 to 52.9 Mg CO2 eq. ha(-1) yr(-1)) and N2O EFs ranged from 3 to 4 %. Soil CO2 and N2O emissions from agroforestry were 38.6 Mg CO2 ha(-1) yr(-1) and 0.2 to 26.7 kg N2O ha(-1) yr(-1) (0.06 to 8.0 Mg CO2 eq. ha(-1) yr(-1)), respectively. Improving fallow with nitrogen (N)-fixing trees led to increased CO2 and N2O emissions compared to conventional croplands. The type and quality of plant residue in the fallow is an important control on how CO2 and N2O emissions are affected. Throughout agricultural lands, N2O emissions slowly increased with N inputs below 150 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) and increased exponentially with N application rates up to 300 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). The lowest yield-scaled N2O emissions were reported with N application rates ranging between 100 and 150 kg N ha(-1). Overall, total CO2 eq. emissions from SSA natural ecosystems and agricultural lands were 56.9 +/- 12.7 x 10(9) Mg CO2 eq. yr(-1) with natural ecosystems and agricultural lands contributing 76.3 and 23.7 %, respectively. Additional GHG emission measurements are urgently required to reduce uncertainty on annual GHG emissions from the different land uses and identify major control factors and mitigation options for low-emission development. A common strategy for addressing this data gap may include identifying priorities for data acquisition, utilizing appropriate technologies, and involving international networks and collaboration. |
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2016-10-18 |
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1726-4170 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4687 |
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Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
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61 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
502-510 |
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Keywords |
climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water |
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Abstract |
Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies. |
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ISSN |
0139-570x |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4644 |
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