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Bojar, W., Knopik, L., Żarski, J., & Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R. (2016). Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting. Agricultural Economics – Czech, 61(11), 502–510.
Abstract: Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies.
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Rusu, T., Moraru, P., Coste, C., Cacovean, H., Chetan, F., & Chetan, C. (2014). Impact of climate change on climatic indicators in Transylvanian Plain, Romania. Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment, 12(1), 469–473.
Abstract: The condition of land degradation in Transylvanian Plain and its effects, being the result of local extreme physical-geographical conditions, is susceptible to degradation (evidenced by the erodibility index), which overlaps the extreme climatic conditions. Thermal and hydric regime monitoring is necessary in order to identify and implement measures of adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Soil moisture and temperature regimes were evaluated using a set of 20 data logging stations positioned throughout the plain. Each station stores electronic data of ground temperature at 3 depths (10, 30, 50 cm), the humidity at the depth of 10 cm, the air temperature (at 1 m) and precipitations. Climate change in the past few years has significantly altered the climatic indicators of the Transylvanian Plain. Precipitations, although deficient in terms of annual amounts, through their regime, have a negative influence on the plant carpet. Pluvial aggressiveness index reveals, for the research period, a first peak of pluvial aggressiveness during the months of February-April, then in July and in autumn, the months of October-November. This requires special measures for soil conservation, both in autumn and early spring, soil tillage measures being recommended, which ensure the presence of plant debris and vegetation in early spring but especially in summer and autumn. Climatic indicators determined for the period 2008 – 2012 point out, in Transylvanian Plain, a semi-arid Mediterranean climate through the rain factor Lang, respectively semi-arid (in the South) – semi-wet (in the North) according to the De Martonne index. This climatic characterization requires special technological measures for soil conservation.
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Twardy, S., & Kopacz, M. (2014). Comparison of Concentrations and Loads of Macronutrients Brought with Precipitation and Leaching from the Soil Profile..
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Kopacz, M., & Twardy, S. (2014). Spatial Modeling as a Tool Supporting the Management of Catchment Area of Retention Reservoir..
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Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Klein, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Bonsch, M., et al. (2014). Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies. Environ. Res. Lett., 9(6), 064029.
Abstract: The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also by increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creating negative CO2 emissions. In this paper, we investigate two land-based climate change mitigation strategies for carbon removal: (1) afforestation and (2) bioenergy in combination with carbon capture and storage technology (bioenergy CCS). In our approach, a global tax on GHG emissions aimed at ambitious climate change mitigation incentivizes land-based mitigation by penalizing positive and rewarding negative CO2 emissions from the land-use system. We analyze afforestation and bioenergy CCS as standalone and combined mitigation strategies. We find that afforestation is a cost-efficient strategy for carbon removal at relatively low carbon prices, while bioenergy CCS becomes competitive only at higher prices. According to our results, cumulative carbon removal due to afforestation and bioenergy CCS is similar at the end of 21st century (600-700 GtCO(2)), while land-demand for afforestation is much higher compared to bioenergy CCS. In the combined setting, we identify competition for land, but the impact on the mitigation potential (1000 GtCO(2)) is partially alleviated by productivity increases in the agricultural sector. Moreover, our results indicate that early-century afforestation presumably will not negatively impact carbon removal due to bioenergy CCS in the second half of the 21st century. A sensitivity analysis shows that land-based mitigation is very sensitive to different levels of GHG taxes. Besides that, the mitigation potential of bioenergy CCS highly depends on the development of future bioenergy yields and the availability of geological carbon storage, while for afforestation projects the length of the crediting period is crucial.
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