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	Author	Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R.
	Title	Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2016	Publication	Agricultural Economics – Czech	Abbreviated Journal	Agricultural Economics – Czech
	Volume	61	Issue	11	Pages	502-510
	Keywords	climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water
	Abstract	Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies.
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	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	0139-570x	ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4644
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