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Nelson, G.C.; Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Havlík, P.; Ahammad, H.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Von Lampe, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mason d’Croz, D.; van Meijl, H.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Müller, C.; Popp, A.; Robertson, R.; Robinson, S.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D. |
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Title |
Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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Volume |
111 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
3274-3279 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture/*economics; Carbon Dioxide/analysis; *Climate Change; Commerce/statistics & numerical data; Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Forecasting; Humans; *Models, Economic; agricultural productivity; climate change adaptation; integrated assessment; model intercomparison |
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Abstract |
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. |
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0027-8424 1091-6490 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4535 |
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Rosenzweig, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Ruane, A.C.; Müller, C.; Arneth, A.; Boote, K.J.; Folberth, C.; Glotter, M.; Khabarov, N.; Neumann, K.; Piontek, F.; Pugh, T.A.; Schmid, E.; Stehfest, E.; Yang, H.; Jones, J.W. |
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Title |
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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111 |
Issue |
9 |
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3268-3273 |
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Agriculture/*methods/statistics & numerical data; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Forecasting; Geography; *Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen/*analysis; Risk Assessment; Temperature; AgMIP; Isi-mip; agriculture; climate impacts; food security |
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Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking) |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4801 |
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Özkan, Ş.; Hill, J.; Cullen, B. |
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Effect of climate variability on pasture-based dairy feeding systems in south-east Australia |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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Animal Production Science |
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Animal Production Science |
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55 |
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9 |
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1106-1116 |
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carry-forward surplus; conserved-hay; probability; winter deficit; grown forage consumption; new-zealand; nutritive characteristics; interannual variation; botanical composition; herbage accumulation; crop; systems; cows; management; profit |
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The Australian dairy industry relies primarily on pasture for its feed supply. However, the variability in climate affects plant growth, leading to uncertainty in dryland pasture supply. This paper models the impact of climate variability on pasture production and examines the potential of two pasture-based dairy feeding systems: (1) to experience winter deficits; (2) to carry forward the conserved pasture surpluses as silage for future use; and (3) to conserve pasture surpluses as hay. The two dairy feeding systems examined were a traditional perennial ryegrass-based feeding system (ryegrass max. – RM) and a system that incorporated double cropping into the perennial ryegrass pasture base (complementary forage – CF). The conditional probability of the RM and CF systems to generate pasture deficits in winter were 94% and 96%, respectively. Both systems could carry forward the surplus silage into the following lactation almost once in every 4-5 years with the RM system performing slightly better than the CF system. The proportions of the grain-based concentrates fed in the two systems were 25% and 27% for the RM and CF systems, respectively. This study suggests that double-cropping systems have the potential to provide high-quality feed to support the feed gaps when pasture is not available due to increased variability in climatic conditions. |
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2015-09-23 |
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1836-5787 |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4689 |
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Porter, J.R.; Wratten, S. |
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Title |
National carbon stocks: Move on to a carbon currency standard |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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Nature |
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Nature |
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506 |
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295 |
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Alongside Robert Costanza and colleagues’ plea to abandon gross domestic product as a measure of national success (see Nature 505, 283–285; 2014), we believe that there is an urgent need to change the way currencies are valued — by using a new ‘carbon standard’ that links economy to ecology. This would work in a similar way to the old gold-exchange standard, except that a country’s currency value would instead be determined by its saved and standing stocks of fossil and non-fossil carbon. Governments would need to decide whether to risk devaluing their currency by depleting carbon stocks — while still honouring a commitment to keep fossil-carbon stocks at 80% as a safeguard against extreme climate change. After the Second World War, huge investments radically altered the economies of the United States, the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom. In the face of climate change, it is now the global energy system that needs reinvention. |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4635 |
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Bertocchi, L.; Vitali, A.; Lacetera, N.; Nardone, A.; Varisco, G.; Bernabucci, U. |
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Seasonal variations in the composition of Holstein cow’s milk and temperature-humidity index relationship |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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Animal |
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Animal |
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8 |
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4 |
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667-674 |
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Animal Husbandry/*methods; Animals; Cattle/*physiology; Cell Count/veterinary; Dairying; Female; Hot Temperature; Humidity; Italy; Lactation/*physiology; Milk/cytology/*physiology; Retrospective Studies; Seasons |
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A retrospective study on seasonal variations in the characteristics of cow’s milk and temperature-humidity index (THI) relationship was conducted on bulk milk data collected from 2003 to 2009. The THI relationship study was carried out on 508 613 bulk milk data items recorded in 3328 dairy farms form the Lombardy region, Italy. Temperature and relative humidity data from 40 weather stations were used to calculate THI. Milk characteristics data referred to somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), fat percentage (FA%) and protein percentage (PR%). Annual, seasonal and monthly variations in milk composition were evaluated on 656 064 data items recorded in 3727 dairy farms. The model highlighted a significant association between the year, season and month, and the parameters analysed (SCC, TBC, FA%, PR%). The summer season emerged as the most critical season. Of the summer months, July presented the most critical conditions for TBC, FA% and PR%, (52 054 ± 183 655, 3.73% ± 0.35% and 3.30% ± 0.15%, respectively), and August presented higher values of SCC (369 503 ± 228 377). Each milk record was linked to THI data calculated at the nearest weather station. The analysis demonstrated a positive correlation between THI and SCC and TBC, and indicated a significant change in the slope at 57.3 and 72.8 maximum THI, respectively. The model demonstrated a negative correlation between THI and FA% and PR% and provided breakpoints in the pattern at 50.2 and 65.2 maximum THI, respectively. The results of this study indicate the presence of critical climatic thresholds for bulk tank milk composition in dairy cows. Such indications could facilitate the adoption of heat management strategies, which may ensure the health and production of dairy cows and limit related economic losses. |
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1751-7311 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4618 |
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