| |
Records |
Links |
|
Author |
Weindl, I.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C.; Havlík, P.; Herrero, M.; Schmitz, C.; Rolinski, S. |
|
| |
Title  |
Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
|
| |
Volume |
10 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
094021 |
|
| |
Keywords |
livestock; climate impacts; land use modeling; adaptation costs; production systems; greenhouse-gas emissions; global change; management implications; developing-countries; crop productivity; change mitigation; food security; model; impacts; carbon |
|
| |
Abstract |
Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource-and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
1748-9326 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4718 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Biewald, A.; Humpenoeder, F.; Dietrich, J.P.; Stevanovic, M. |
|
| |
Title |
Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global and Planetary Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global And Planetary Change |
|
| |
Volume |
159 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
1-10 |
|
| |
Keywords |
Livestock productivity; Diets; Land use; Deforestation; Carbon emissions; Greenhouse gas mitigation; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Climate-Change Mitigation; Food-Demand; Crop; Productivity; Cover Change; Systems; Agriculture; Intensification; Environment; Deforestation |
|
| |
Abstract |
Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47-55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34-57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23-78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63-78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection. |
|
| |
Address |
2018-01-25 |
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
0921-8181 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5188 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Molina-Herrera, S.; Haas, E.; Grote, R.; Kiese, R.; Klatt, S.; Kraus, D.; Kampffmeyer, T.; Friedrich, R.; Andreae, H.; Loubet, B.; Ammann, C.; Horvath, L.; Larsen, K.; Gruening, C.; Frumau, A.; Butterbach-Bahl, K. |
|
| |
Title |
Importance of soil NO emissions for the total atmospheric NOX budget of Saxony, Germany |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Atmospheric Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Atm. Environ. |
|
| |
Volume |
152 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
61-76 |
|
| |
Keywords |
LandscapeDNDC; Model evaluation; NOX emissions; Soil emissions; Distributed modeling; Emission inventory; Nitric-Oxide Emissions; European Forest Soils; Nitrous-Oxide; N2O; Emissions; Agricultural Soils; Gas Emissions; Organic Soil; Trace Gases; Model; Fluxes |
|
| |
Abstract |
Soils are a significant source for the secondary greenhouse gas NO and assumed to be a significant source of tropospheric NOx in rural areas. Here we tested the LandscapeDNDC model for its capability to simulate magnitudes and dynamics of soil NO emissions for 22 sites differing in land use (arable, grassland and forest) and edaphic as well as climatic conditions. Overall, LandscapeDNDC simulated mean soil NO emissions agreed well with observations (r(2) = 0.82). However, simulated day to day variations of NO did only agree weakly with high temporal resolution measurements, though agreement between simulations and measurements significantly increased if data were aggregated to weekly, monthly and seasonal time scales. The model reproduced NO emissions from high and low emitting sites, and responded to fertilization (mineral and organic) events with pulse emissions. After evaluation, we linked the LandscapeDNDC model to a GIS database holding spatially explicit data on climate, land use, soil and management to quantify the contribution of soil biogenic NO emissions to the total NOx budget for the State of Saxony, Germany. Our calculations show that soils of both agricultural and forest systems are significant sources and contribute to about 8% (uncertainty range: 6 -13%) to the total annual tropospheric NO, budget for Saxony. However, the contributions of soil NO emission to total tropospheric NO, showed a high spatial variability and in some rural regions such as the Ore Mts., simulated soil NO emissions were by far more important than anthropogenic sources. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
|
| |
Address |
2017-04-07 |
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
1352-2310 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4943 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Kyle, P.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; van Meijl, H.; Hasegawa, T.; Popp, A.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Wise, M. |
|
| |
Title |
Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
|
| |
Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
103-116 |
|
| |
Keywords |
energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison; greenhouse-gas emissions; land-use; energy; productivity; scenarios; policies; capture; storage; system |
|
| |
Abstract |
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
0169-5150 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM, TradeM |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4532 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Vosough Ahmadi, B.; Stott, A.W. |
|
| |
Title |
Impact of subclinical mastitis on greenhouse gas emissions intensity and profitability of dairy cows in Norway |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Preventive Veterinary Medicine |
Abbreviated Journal |
Preventive Veterinary Medicine |
|
| |
Volume |
150 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
19-29 |
|
| |
Keywords |
Dairy cow; Dynamic programming; Greenhouse gas emissions intensity; Profitability; Subclinical mastitis; Whole farm modelling |
|
| |
Abstract |
Impaired animal health causes both productivity and profitability losses on dairy farms, resulting in inefficient use of inputs and increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced per unit of product (i.e. emissions intensity). Here, we used subclinical mastitis as an exemplar to benchmark alternative scenarios against an economic optimum and adjusted herd structure to estimate the GHG emissions intensity associated with varying levels of disease. Five levels of somatic cell count (SCC) classes were considered namely 50,000 (i.e. SCC50), 200,000, 400,000, 600,000 and 800,000 cells/mL (milliliter) of milk. The effects of varying levels of SCC on milk yield reduction and consequential milk price penalties were used in a dynamic programming (DP) model that maximizes the profit per cow, represented as expected net present value, by choosing optimal animal replacement rates. The GHG emissions intensities associated with different levels of SCC were then computed using a farm-scale model (HolosNor). The total culling rates of both primiparous (PP) and multiparous (MP) cows for the five levels of SCC scenarios estimated by the model varied from a minimum of 30.9% to a maximum of 43.7%. The expected profit was the highest for cows with SCC200 due to declining margin over feed, which influenced the DP model to cull and replace more animals and generate higher profit under this scenario compared to SCC50. The GHG emission intensities for the PP and MP cows with SCC50 were 1.01 kg (kilogram) and 0.95 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per kg fat and protein corrected milk (FPCM), respectively, with the lowest emissions being achieved in SCC50. Our results show that there is a potential to reduce the farm GHG emissions intensity by 3.7% if the milk production was improved through reducing the level of SCC to 50,000 cells/mL in relation to SCC level 800,000 cells/mL. It was concluded that preventing and/or controlling subclinical mastitis consequently reduces the GHG emissions per unit of product on farm that results in improved profits for the farmers through reductions in milk losses, optimum culling rate and reduced feed and other variable costs. We suggest that further studies exploring the impact of a combination of diseases on emissions intensity are warranted. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
0167-5877 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5181 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
