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Piontek, F.; Müller, C.; Pugh, T.A.; Clark, D.B.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Colón González, F.J.; Flörke, M.; Folberth, C.; Franssen, W.; Frieler, K.; Friend, A.D.; Gosling, S.N.; Hemming, D.; Khabarov, N.; Kim, H.; Lomas, M.R.; Masaki, Y.; Mengel, M.; Morse, A.; Neumann, K.; Nishina, K.; Ostberg, S.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A.C.; Schewe, J.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Tessler, Z.D.; Tompkins, A.M.; Warszawski, L.; Wisser, D.; Schellnhuber, H.J. |
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Title  |
Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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111 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
3233-3238 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture/statistics & numerical data; Computer Simulation; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods; Ecosystem; *Environment; Geography; Global Warming/economics/*statistics & numerical data; Humans; Malaria/epidemiology; *Models, Theoretical; *Public Policy; Temperature; Water Supply/statistics & numerical data; Isi-mip; coinciding pressures; differential climate impacts |
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Abstract |
The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty. |
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0027-8424 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4538 |
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Yin, X.G.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Manevski, K.; Baby, S.; Beaudoin, N.; Ozturk, I.; Gaiser, T.; Wu, L.H.; Hoffmann, M.; Charfeddine, M.; Conradt, T.; Constantin, J.; Ewert, F.; de Cortazar-Atauri, I.G.; Giglio, L.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Launay, M.; Louarn, G.; Manderscheid, R.; Mary, B.; Mirschel, W.; Nende, C.; Pacholskin, A.; Palosuo, T.; Ripoche-Wachter, D.; Rotter, R.P.; Ruget, F.; Sharif, B.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Weigel, H.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Yin, X.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Manevski, K.; Baby, S.; Beaudoin, N.; Ozturk, I.; Gaiser, T.; Wu, L.; Hoffmann, M.; Charfeddine, M.; Conradt, T.; Constantin, J.; Ewert, F.; de Cortazar-Atauri, I.G.; Giglio, L.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Launay, M.; Louarn, G.; Manderscheid, R.; Mary, B.; Mirschel, W.; Nende, C.; Pacholskin, A.; Palosuo, T.; Ripoche-Wachter, D.; Roetter, R.P.; Ruget, F.; Sharif, B.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Weigel, H.-J.; Olesen, J.E. |
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Title |
Performance of process-based models for simulation of grain N in crop rotations across Europe |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
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154 |
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63-77 |
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Calibration, Crop model, Crop rotation, Grain N content, Model evaluation, Model initialization; Climate-Change; Winter-Wheat; Nitrogen-Fertilization; Agroecosystem; Models; Multimodel Ensembles; Yield Response; Use Efficiency; Soil-Moisture; Oilseed Rape; Elevated Co2 |
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The accurate estimation of crop grain nitrogen (N; N in grain yield) is crucial for optimizing agricultural N management, especially in crop rotations. In the present study, 12 process-based models were applied to simulate the grain N of i) seven crops in rotations, ii) across various pedo-climatic and agro-management conditions in Europe, under both continuous simulation and single year simulation, and for iv) two calibration levels, namely minimal and detailed calibration. Generally, the results showed that the accuracy of the simulations in predicting grain N increased under detailed calibration. The models performed better in predicting the grain N of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), winter barley (Hordewn vulgare L.) and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) compared to spring oat (Avena saliva L.), winter rye (Secale cereale L.), pea (Piswn sativum L.) and winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.). These differences are linked to the intensity of parameterization with better parameterized crops showing lower prediction errors. The model performance was influenced by N fertilization and irrigation treatments, and a majority of the predictions were more accurate under low N and rainfed treatments. Moreover, the multi-model mean provided better predictions of grain N compared to any individual model. In regard to the Individual models, DAISY, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA and STICS are suitable for predicting grain N of the main crops in typical European crop rotations, which all performed well in both continuous simulation and single year simulation. Our results show that both the model initialization and the cover crop effects in crop rotations should be considered in order to achieve good performance of continuous simulation. Furthermore, the choice of either continuous simulation or single year simulation should be guided by the simulation objectives (e.g. grain yield, grain N content or N dynamics), the crop sequence (inclusion of legumes) and treatments (rate and type of N fertilizer) included in crop rotations and the model formalism. |
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2017-06-12 |
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0308-521x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4963 |
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Author |
Ghaley, B.B.; Vesterdal, L.; Porter, J.R. |
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Quantification and valuation of ecosystem services in diverse production systems for informed decision-making |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Science & Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Science & Policy |
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39 |
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139-149 |
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bio-physical quantification; combined food and energy system; economic valuation field measurements; land management; marketable and non-marketable ecosystem services; land-use change; carbon; farm; efficiency; crops; china; model; scale; field |
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The empirical evidence of decline in ecosystem services (ES) over the last century has reinforced the call for ES quantification, monitoring and valuation. Usually, only provisioning ES are marketable and accounted for, whereas regulating, supporting and cultural ES are typically non-marketable and overlooked in connection with land-use or management decisions. The objective of this study was to quantify and value total ES (marketable and non-marketable) of diverse production systems and management intensities in Denmark to provide a basis for decisions based on economic values. The production systems were conventional wheat (Cwheat), a combined food and energy (CFE) production system and beech forest. Marketable (provisioning ES) and non-marketable ES (supporting, regulating and cultural) ES were quantified by dedicated on-site field measurements supplemented by literature data. The value of total ES was highest in CFE (US$ 3142 ha(-1) yr(-1)) followed by Cwheat (US$ 2767 ha (1) yr(-1)) and beech forest (US$ 2328 ha(-1) yr(-1)). As the production system shifted from Cwheat – CFE-beech, the marketable ES share decreased from 88% to 75% in CFE and 55% in beech whereas the non-marketable ES share increased to 12%, 25% and 45% of total ES in Cwheat, CFE and beech respectively, demonstrating production system and management effects on ES values. Total ES valuation, disintegrated into marketable and non-marketable share is a potential way forward to value ES and `tune’ our production systems for enhanced ES provision. Such monetary valuation can be used by policy makers and land managers as a tool to assess ES value and monitor the sustained flow of ES. The application of ES-based valuation for land management can enhance ES provision for maintaining the productive capacity of the land without depending on the external fossil-based fertilizer and chemical input. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1462-9011 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4623 |
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Ruiu, L.M.; Maurizi, S.; Sassu, S.; Seddaiu, G.; Zuin, O.; Blackmore, C.; Roggero, P.P. |
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Re-Staging La Rasgioni: lessons learned from transforming a traditional form of conflict resolution to engage stakeholders in agricultural water governance |
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Journal Article |
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2017 |
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Water |
Abbreviated Journal |
Water |
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9 |
Issue |
4 |
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297 |
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co-researching; dairy farming; ecosystem perception; systemic governance; governance learning; irrigation; knowledge co-production; nitrate pollution; social learning; stakeholders; theatre |
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This paper presents an informal process inspired by a public practice of conflict mediation used until a few decades ago in Gallura (NE Sardinia, Italy), named La Rasgioni (The Reason). The aim is twofold: (i) to introduce an innovative method that translates the complexity of water-related conflicts into a “dialogical tool”, aimed at enhancing social learning by adopting theatrical techniques; and (ii) to report the outcomes that emerged from the application of this method in Arborea, the main dairy cattle district and the only nitrate-vulnerable zone in Sardinia, to mediate contrasting positions between local entrepreneurs and representatives of the relevant institutions. We discuss our results in the light of four pillars, adopted as research lenses in the International research Project CADWAGO (Climate Change Adaptation and Water Governance), which consider the specific “social–ecological” components of the Arborea system, climate change adaptability in water governance institutions and organizations, systemic governance (relational) practices, and governance learning. The combination of the four CADWAGO pillars and La Rasgioni created an innovative dialogical space that enabled stakeholders and researchers to collectively identify barriers and opportunities for effective governance practices. Potential wider implications and applications of La Rasgioni process are also discussed in the paper. |
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2017-04-24 |
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2073-4441 |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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yes |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4944 |
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Ma, S.; Lardy, R.; Graux, A.-I.; Ben Touhami, H.; Klumpp, K.; Martin, R.; Bellocchi, G. |
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Regional-scale analysis of carbon and water cycles on managed grassland systems |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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72 |
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356-371 |
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carbon flux; eddy flux measurements; model evaluation; pasture simulation model (pasim); water balance; pasture simulation-model; nitrous-oxide emissions; primary productivity npp; comparing global-models; net ecosystem exchange; greenhouse-gas balance; climate-change; agricultural systems; co2 exchange; european grasslands |
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Predicting regional and global carbon (C) and water dynamics on grasslands has become of major interest, as grasslands are one of the most widespread vegetation types worldwide, providing a number of ecosystem services (such as forage production and C storage). The present study is a contribution to a regional-scale analysis of the C and water cycles on managed grasslands. The mechanistic biogeochemical model PaSim (Pasture Simulation model) was evaluated at 12 grassland sites in Europe. A new parameterization was obtained on a common set of eco-physiological parameters, which represented an improvement of previous parameterization schemes (essentially obtained via calibration at specific sites). We found that C and water fluxes estimated with the parameter set are in good agreement with observations. The model with the new parameters estimated that European grassland are a sink of C with 213 g C m(-2) yr(-1), which is close to the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE) flux of the studied sites (185 g C m(-2) yr(-1) on average). The estimated yearly average gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RECO) for all of the study sites are 1220 and 1006 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively, in agreement with observed average GPP (1230 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) and RECO (1046 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). For both variables aggregated on a weekly basis, the root mean square error (RMSE) was similar to 5-16 g C week(-1) across the study sites, while the goodness of fit (R-2) was similar to 0.4-0.9. For evapotranspiration (ET), the average value of simulated ET (415 mmyr(-1)) for all sites and years is close to the average value of the observed ET (451 mm yr(-1)) by flux towers (on a weekly basis, RMSE similar to 2-8 mm week(-1); R-2 = 0.3-0.9). However, further model development is needed to better represent soil water dynamics under dry conditions and soil temperature in winter. A quantification of the uncertainties introduced by spatially generalized parameter values in C and water exchange estimates is also necessary. In addition, some uncertainties in the input management data call for the need to improve the quality of the observational system. |
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2015-10-09 |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4695 |
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