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Author |
Höhn, J.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Impact of global warming on European cereal production |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
Abbreviated Journal |
CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
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Volume |
9 |
Issue |
022 |
Pages |
1-15 |
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Keywords |
Climate change; Food security; Uncertainty; Wheat; Maize; Barley |
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Abstract |
This review examines relevant impact assessments identified by a literature search from 1991to date. A bibliographic search was applied to the CAB Abstracts database with a given searchstring. Resultant papers were checked for relevance, based on expert judgment. This yielded 91 papers, which were subjected to further analysis. Firstly, publication intensity over time and distribution by geographic location and cereal crop were examined. Next, for a given crop, the assessments and their outcomes were grouped by type and number of the change variables considered – that is, effects of climate change only, elevated CO 2 and technological progress(improved breeds, management). Finally, separately for individual countries/subregions and Europe as a whole, we examined whether and to what extent study results have changed over time, for example become more positive/negative. Based on our sample, we found that publication intensity increased exponentially during thelast 4 years, the majority of studies are Europe-wide, but some concentrated on a few countries(Italy, Spain and UK), whereby studies on wheat are clearly most popular. Taking the factor of technological progress into account has an overruling influence on results. Finally, over time, projected yield impacts have become more negative. This is in line with finding from global analyses, as reflected by the most recent comparison of agricultural impact chapters, of the 4thand 5th Assessment Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II.In the future, there is particular need to consider impacts under various incremental and transformational adaptation measures in more depth (e.g. their interconnections across scales)and with more breadth (e.g. anticipated new breeds). Follow-up reviews should also examine how projected impacts are changing with the new climate scenario data sets (CMIP5) and with improved impact models and assessment approaches. |
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1749-8848 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4524 |
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Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S. |
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Title |
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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Volume |
72 |
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Pages |
287-303 |
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Keywords |
uncertainty; scaling; integrated assessment; risk assessment; adaptation; crop models; agricultural land-use; change adaptation strategies; farming systems simulation; agri-environmental systems; enrichment face experiment; high-temperature stress; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; atmospheric co2; spring wheat |
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The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4521 |
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Dumont, B.; Basso, B.; Leemans, V.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
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Title |
Systematic analysis of site-specific yield distributions resulting from nitrogen management and climatic variability interactions |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
Publication |
Precision Agriculture |
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Precision Agric. |
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16 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
361-384 |
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Keywords |
nitrogen management; climatic variability; lars-wg weather generator; stics soil-crop model; pearson system; probability risk assessment; crop model stics; fertilizer nitrogen; generic model; wheat yield; maize; simulation; skewness; field; agriculture; scenarios |
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At the plot level, crop simulation models such as STICS have the potential to evaluate risk associated with management practices. In nitrogen (N) management, however, the decision-making process is complex because the decision has to be taken without any knowledge of future weather conditions. The objective of this paper is to present a general methodology for assessing yield variability linked to climatic uncertainty and variable N rate strategies. The STICS model was coupled with the LARS-Weather Generator. The Pearson system and coefficients were used to characterise the shape of yield distribution. Alternatives to classical statistical tests were proposed for assessing the normality of distributions and conducting comparisons (namely, the Jarque-Bera and Wilcoxon tests, respectively). Finally, the focus was put on the probability risk assessment, which remains a key point within the decision process. The simulation results showed that, based on current N application practice among Belgian farmers (60-60-60 kgN ha(-1)), yield distribution was very highly significantly non-normal, with the highest degree of asymmetry characterised by a skewness value of -1.02. They showed that this strategy gave the greatest probability (60 %) of achieving yields that were superior to the mean (10.5 t ha(-1)) of the distribution. |
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1385-2256 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4519 |
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Dumont, B.; Leemans, V.; Mansouri, M.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
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Title |
Parameter identification of the STICS crop model, using an accelerated formal MCMC approach |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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52 |
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121-135 |
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Keywords |
crop model; parameter estimation; bayes; stics; dream; global sensitivity-analysis; simulation-model; nitrogen balances; bayesian-approach; generic model; wheat; prediction; water; optimization; algorithm |
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This study presents a Bayesian approach for the parameters’ identification of the STICS crop model based on the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The posterior distributions of nine specific crop parameters of the STICS model were sampled with the aim to improve the growth simulations of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L) culture. The results obtained with the DREAM algorithm were initially compared to those obtained with a Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm embedded within the OptimiSTICS package. Then, three types of likelihood functions implemented within the DREAM algorithm were compared, namely the standard least square, the weighted least square, and a transformed likelihood function that makes explicit use of the coefficient of variation (CV). The results showed that the proposed CV likelihood function allowed taking into account both noise on measurements and heteroscedasticity which are regularly encountered in crop modelling. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4520 |
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Author |
Ventrella, D.; Charfeddine, M.; Moriondo, M.; Rinaldi, M.; Bindi, M. |
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Title |
Agronomic adaptation strategies under climate change for winter durum wheat and tomato in southern Italy: irrigation and nitrogen fertilization |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg Environ Change |
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12 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
407-419 |
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Keywords |
Modelling; Climate change; Agronomic adaptation strategies; Yield; Tomato; Winter durum wheat; air co2 enrichment; change scenarios; cropping systems; change impacts; simulation; agriculture; variability; increase; model; responses; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
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Agricultural crops are affected by climate change due to the relationship between crop development, growth, yield, CO2 atmospheric concentration and climate conditions. In particular, the further reduction in existing limited water resources combined with an increase in temperature may result in higher impacts on agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area than in other regions. In this study, the cropping system models CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO-Tomato of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were used to analyse the response of winter durum wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) crops to climate change, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer managements in one of most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia). For this analysis, three climatic datasets were used: (1) a single dataset (50 km x 50 km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975-2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2A degrees C (centred over 2030-2060) and +5A degrees C (centred over 2070-2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). Adaptation strategies, such as irrigation and N fertilizer managements, have been investigated to either avoid or at least reduce the negative impacts induced by climate change impacts for both crops. Warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate wheat and tomato phenology, thereby resulting in decreased total dry matter accumulation for both tomato and wheat under the +5A degrees C future climate scenario. Under the +2A degrees C scenario, dry matter accumulation and resulting yield were also reduced for tomato, whereas no negative yield effects were observed for winter durum wheat. In general, limiting the global mean temperature change of 2A degrees C, the application of adaptation strategies (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) showed a positive effect in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change on productivity of tomato cultivated in southern Italy. |
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1436-3798 1436-378x |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4480 |
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