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Dumont, B.; Leemans, V.; Mansouri, M.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
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Title |
Parameter identification of the STICS crop model, using an accelerated formal MCMC approach |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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Volume |
52 |
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121-135 |
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Keywords |
crop model; parameter estimation; bayes; stics; dream; global sensitivity-analysis; simulation-model; nitrogen balances; bayesian-approach; generic model; wheat; prediction; water; optimization; algorithm |
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Abstract |
This study presents a Bayesian approach for the parameters’ identification of the STICS crop model based on the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The posterior distributions of nine specific crop parameters of the STICS model were sampled with the aim to improve the growth simulations of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L) culture. The results obtained with the DREAM algorithm were initially compared to those obtained with a Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm embedded within the OptimiSTICS package. Then, three types of likelihood functions implemented within the DREAM algorithm were compared, namely the standard least square, the weighted least square, and a transformed likelihood function that makes explicit use of the coefficient of variation (CV). The results showed that the proposed CV likelihood function allowed taking into account both noise on measurements and heteroscedasticity which are regularly encountered in crop modelling. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4520 |
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Ghaley, B.B.; Porter, J.R.; Sandhu, H.S. |
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Title |
Soil-based ecosystem services: a synthesis of nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration assessment methods |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management |
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10 |
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3 |
Pages |
177-186 |
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ecosystem functions; litter decomposition; mineralisation; assessment methodologies; stoichiometry |
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Among the soil-based ecosystem services (ES), nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration have direct influence on the biogeochemical cycles and greenhouse gas emissions affecting provision of other ES that support human existence. We reviewed methods to assess the two key ES by identifying their strengths and weaknesses and have made suggestions for using appropriate methods for better understanding of the ecosystem functions for the provision of ES. Relevant papers for the review were chosen on the basis of (i) diversity of studies on the two key ES in different ecosystems, (ii) methodologies applied and (iii) detailed descriptions of the trial locations in terms of vegetation, soil type, location and climatic information. We concluded that (i) elemental stoichiometrical ratios could be a potential approach to assess the health of ecosystems in terms of provision of the two ES discussed, (ii) stoichiometric imbalances need to be avoided between the supply and the demand of the nutrients to maintain the ES provision in terrestrial ecosystems and (iii) stoichiometric ratios can act as a management tool at a field, farm and at landscape level, to complement other compositional biodiversity and functional diversity approaches to ensure sustainable provision of ES. |
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2151-3732 2151-3740 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4522 |
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Graef, F.; Sieber, S.; Mutabazi, K.; Asch, F.; Biesalski, H.K.; Bitegeko, J.; Bokelmann, W.; Bruentrup, M.; Dietrich, O.; Elly, N.; Fasse, A.; Germer, J.U.; Grote, U.; Herrmann, L.; Herrmann, R.; Hoffmann, H.; Kahimba, F.C.; Kaufmann, B.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Kilembe, C.; Kimaro, A.; Kinabo, J.; König, B.; König, H.; Lana, M.; Levy, C.; Lyimo-Macha, J.; Makoko, B.; Mazoko, G.; Mbaga, S.H.; Mbogoro, W.; Milling, H.; Mtambo, K.; Mueller, J.; Mueller, C.; Mueller, K.; Nkonja, E.; Reif, C.; Ringler, C.; Ruvuga, S.; Schaefer, M.; Sikira, A.; Silayo, V.; Stahr, K.; Swai, E.; Tumbo, S.; Uckert, G. |
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Title |
Framework for participatory food security research in rural food value chains |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Food Security |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global Food Security |
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3 |
Issue |
1 |
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8-15 |
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food security; food value chain; action research; tanzania; research framework |
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Enhancing food security for poor and vulnerable people requires adapting rural food systems to various driving factors. Food security-related research should apply participatory action research that considers the entire food value chain to ensure sustained success. This article presents a research framework that focusses on determining, prioritising, testing, adapting and disseminating food securing upgrading strategies across the multiple components of rural food value chains. These include natural resources, Food production, processing, markets, consumption and waste management. Scientists and policy makers jointly use tools developed for assessing potentials for enhancing regional food security at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The research is being conducted in Tanzania as a case study for Sub-Saharan countries and is done in close collaboration with local, regional and national stakeholders, encompassing all activities across all different food sectors. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2211-9124 |
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CropM, TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4523 |
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Author |
Höhn, J.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Impact of global warming on European cereal production |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
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CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
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9 |
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022 |
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1-15 |
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Climate change; Food security; Uncertainty; Wheat; Maize; Barley |
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This review examines relevant impact assessments identified by a literature search from 1991to date. A bibliographic search was applied to the CAB Abstracts database with a given searchstring. Resultant papers were checked for relevance, based on expert judgment. This yielded 91 papers, which were subjected to further analysis. Firstly, publication intensity over time and distribution by geographic location and cereal crop were examined. Next, for a given crop, the assessments and their outcomes were grouped by type and number of the change variables considered – that is, effects of climate change only, elevated CO 2 and technological progress(improved breeds, management). Finally, separately for individual countries/subregions and Europe as a whole, we examined whether and to what extent study results have changed over time, for example become more positive/negative. Based on our sample, we found that publication intensity increased exponentially during thelast 4 years, the majority of studies are Europe-wide, but some concentrated on a few countries(Italy, Spain and UK), whereby studies on wheat are clearly most popular. Taking the factor of technological progress into account has an overruling influence on results. Finally, over time, projected yield impacts have become more negative. This is in line with finding from global analyses, as reflected by the most recent comparison of agricultural impact chapters, of the 4thand 5th Assessment Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II.In the future, there is particular need to consider impacts under various incremental and transformational adaptation measures in more depth (e.g. their interconnections across scales)and with more breadth (e.g. anticipated new breeds). Follow-up reviews should also examine how projected impacts are changing with the new climate scenario data sets (CMIP5) and with improved impact models and assessment approaches. |
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1749-8848 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4524 |
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Kahiluoto, H.; Kaseva, J.; Hakala, K.; Himanen, S.J.; Jauhiainen, L.; Rötter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Trnka, M. |
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Title |
Cultivating resilience by empirically revealing response diversity |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
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25 |
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186-193 |
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generic approach; climate change; food security; agrifood systems; cultivars; adaptive capacity; climate-change; functional diversity; plant-communities; genetic diversity; biodiversity; ecosystems; management; redundancy; evenness; weather |
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Intensified climate and market turbulence requires resilience to a multitude of changes. Diversity reduces the sensitivity to disturbance and fosters the capacity to adapt to various future scenarios. What really matters is diversity of responses. Despite appeals to manage resilience, conceptual developments have not yet yielded a break-through in empirical applications. Here, we present an approach to empirically reveal the ‘response diversity’: the factors of change that are critical to a system are identified, and the response diversity is determined based on the documented component responses to these factors. We illustrate this approach and its added value using an example of securing food supply in the face of climate variability and change. This example demonstrates that quantifying response diversity allows for a new perspective: despite continued increase in cultivar diversity of barley, the diversity in responses to weather declined during the last decade in the regions where most of the barley is grown in Finland. This was due to greater homogeneity in responses among new cultivars than among older ones. Such a decline in the response diversity indicates increased vulnerability and reduced resilience. The assessment serves adaptive management in the face of both ecological and socioeconomic drivers. Supplier diversity in the food retail industry in order to secure affordable food in spite of global price volatility could represent another application. The approach is, indeed, applicable to any system for which it is possible to adopt empirical information regarding the response by its components to the critical factors of variability and change. Targeting diversification in response to critical change brings efficiency into diversity. We propose the generic procedure that is demonstrated in this study as a means to efficiently enhance resilience at multiple levels of agrifood systems and beyond. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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0959-3780 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4525 |
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