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Author Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Technological Forecasting and Social Change Abbreviated Journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change  
  Volume 81 Issue Pages 236-249  
  Keywords Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration  
  Abstract ► Endogenous technological change in an economic land use model ► Estimation of yield elasticity with respect to investments in technological change ► Projections of future agricultural productivity rates ► Validation with observed data and historic trends ► Trade-off between required technological change and forest protection objectives Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 0.29 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995–2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change.  
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0040-1625 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4518  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Challinor, A.; Martre, P.; Asseng, S.; Thornton, P.; Ewert, F. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Making the most of climate impacts ensembles Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change  
  Volume 4 Issue 2 Pages 77-80  
  Keywords uncertainty; model; adaptation  
  Abstract Increasing use of regionally and globally oriented impacts studies, coordinated across international modelling groups, promises to bring about a new era in climate impacts research. Coordinated cycles of model improvement and projection are needed to make the most of this potential.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1758-678x 1758-6798 ISBN Medium Commentary  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4516  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Dáder, B.; Gwynn-Jones, D.; Moreno, A.; Winters, A.; Fereres, A. doi  openurl
  Title Impact of UV-A radiation on the performance of aphids and whiteflies and on the leaf chemistry of their host plants Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology B: Biology Abbreviated Journal J. Photochem. Photobiol. B  
  Volume 138 Issue Pages 307-316  
  Keywords Amino Acids/analysis; Animals; Aphids/*radiation effects; Capsicum/metabolism/parasitology/radiation effects; Carbohydrates/analysis; Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid; Female; Fertility/radiation effects; Hemiptera/*radiation effects; Mass Spectrometry; Phenols/analysis/chemistry; Plant Leaves/metabolism/parasitology/radiation effects; Plants/parasitology/*radiation effects; Proteins/analysis; Solanum melongena/metabolism/parasitology/radiation effects; Time Factors; *Ultraviolet Rays; Eggplant; Insect pests; Pepper; Plant-insect interactions; UV-blocking covers  
  Abstract Ultraviolet (UV) radiation directly regulates a multitude of herbivore life processes, in addition to indirectly affecting insect success via changes in plant chemistry and morphogenesis. Here we looked at plant and insect (aphid and whitefly) exposure to supplemental UV-A radiation in the glasshouse environment and investigated effects on insect population growth. Glasshouse grown peppers and eggplants were grown from seed inside cages covered by novel plastic filters, one transparent and the other opaque to UV-A radiation. At a 10-true leaf stage for peppers (53 days) and 4-true leaf stage for eggplants (34 days), plants were harvested for chemical analysis and infested by aphids and whiteflies, respectively. Clip-cages were used to introduce and monitor the insect fitness and populations of the pests studied. Insect pre-reproductive period, fecundity, fertility and intrinsic rate of natural increase were assessed. Crop growth was monitored weekly for 7 and 12 weeks throughout the crop cycle of peppers and eggplants, respectively. At the end of the insect fitness experiment, plants were harvested (68 days and 18-true leaf stage for peppers, and 104 days and 12-true leaf stage for eggplants) and leaves analysed for secondary metabolites, soluble carbohydrates, amino acids, total proteins and photosynthetic pigments. Our results demonstrate for the first time, that UV-A modulates plant chemistry with implications for insect pests. Both plant species responded directly to UV-A by producing shorter stems but this effect was only significant in pepper whilst UV-A did not affect the leaf area of either species. Importantly, in pepper, the UV-A treated plants contained higher contents of secondary metabolites, leaf soluble carbohydrates, free amino acids and total content of protein. Such changes in tissue chemistry may have indirectly promoted aphid performance. For eggplants, chlorophylls a and b, and carotenoid levels decreased with supplemental UV-A over the entire crop cycle but UV-A exposure did not affect leaf secondary metabolites. However, exposure to supplemental UV-A had a detrimental effect on whitefly development, fecundity and fertility presumably not mediated by plant cues as compounds implied in pest nutrition – proteins and sugars – were unaltered.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1011-1344 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4517  
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Author Bodirsky, B.L.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.P.; Rolinski, S.; Weindl, I.; Schmitz, C.; Müller, C.; Bonsch, M.; Humpenöder, F.; Biewald, A.; Stevanovic, M. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Nature Communications Abbreviated Journal Nat. Comm.  
  Volume 5 Issue Pages 3858  
  Keywords Animals; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism/*supply & distribution; Environmental Pollution/*prevention & control; *Food Supply; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen Fixation; *Population Growth; Reactive Nitrogen Species/*supply & distribution  
  Abstract Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2041-1723 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4513  
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Author Bassu, S.; Brisson, N.; Durand, J.-L.; Boote, K.; Lizaso, J.; Jones, J.W.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Adam, M.; Baron, C.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Boogaard, H.; Conijn, S.; Corbeels, M.; Deryng, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Gayler, S.; Grassini, P.; Hatfield, J.; Hoek, S.; Izaurralde, C.; Jongschaap, R.; Kemanian, A.R.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kim, S.-H.; Kumar, N.S.; Makowski, D.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; Priesack, E.; Pravia, M.V.; Sau, F.; Shcherbak, I.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.; Timlin, D.; Waha, K. doi  openurl
  Title How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Global Change Biology Abbreviated Journal Glob. Chang. Biol.  
  Volume 20 Issue 7 Pages 2301-2320  
  Keywords Carbon Dioxide/metabolism; *Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/growth & development/metabolism; Geography; Models, Biological; Temperature; Water/*metabolism; Zea mays/*growth & development/*metabolism; AgMIP; [Co2]; climate; maize; model intercomparison; simulation; uncertainty  
  Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.  
  Address  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1354-1013 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4510  
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