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Author Zimmermann, A.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F.; Kros, J.; Wolf, J.; Britz, W.; de Vries, W. doi  openurl
  Title Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements Type Journal Article
  Year 2017 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agric. Syst.  
  Volume 157 Issue Pages 81-92  
  Keywords Integrated assessment; Crop management; Climate change; Europe; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE; FOOD SECURITY; HEAT-STRESS; ADAPTATION; SYSTEMS; TEMPERATURE; SCENARIOS; WHEAT; PRODUCTIVITY; Vries W., 2011, ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION, V159, P3254  
  Abstract Impacts of climate change on European agricultural production, land use and the environment depend on its impact on crop yields. However, many impact studies assume that crop management remains unchanged in future scenarios, while farmers may adapt their sowing dates and cultivar thermal time requirements to minimize yield losses or realize yield gains. The main objective of this study was to investigate the sensitivity of climate change impacts on European crop yields, land use, production and environmental variables to adaptations in crops sowing dates and varieties’ thermal time requirements. A crop, economic and environmental model were coupled in an integrated assessment modelling approach for six important crops, for 27 countries of the European Union (EU27) to assess results of three SRES climate change scenarios to 2050. Crop yields under climate change were simulated considering three different management cases; (i) no change in crop management from baseline conditions (NoAd), (ii) adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements to give highest yields to 2050 (Opt) and (iii) a more conservative adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements (Act). Averaged across EU27, relative changes in water-limited crop yields due to climate change and increased CO2 varied between -6 and + 21% considering NoAd management, whereas impacts with Opt management varied between + 12 and + 53%, and those under Act management between 2 and + 27%. However, relative yield increases under climate change increased to + 17 and + 51% when technology progress was also considered. Importantly, the sensitivity to crop management assumptions of land use, production and environmental impacts were less pronounced than for crop yields due to the influence of corresponding market, farm resource and land allocation adjustments along the model chain acting via economic optimization of yields. We conclude that assumptions about crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements affect impact variables but to a different extent and generally decreasing for variables affected by economic drivers.  
  Address 2017-11-02  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0308-521x ISBN Medium article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5178  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Vilvert, E.; Lana, M.; Zander, P.; Sieber, S. doi  openurl
  Title Multi-model approach for assessing the sunflower food value chain in Tanzania Type Journal Article
  Year 2018 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agric. Syst.  
  Volume 159 Issue Pages 103-110  
  Keywords Sunflower; Food value chain; Modelling; Tanzania; Food security; Systems Simulation; Crop Model; Agricultural Systems; Farming Systems; Yield Response; Land-Use; Water; Aquacrop; Security; Stics  
  Abstract Sunflower is one of the major oilseeds produced in Tanzania, but due to insufficient domestic production more than half of the country’s demand is imported. The improvement of the sunflower food value chain (FVC) understanding is important to ensure an increase in the production, availability, and quality of edible oil. In order to analyse causes and propose solutions to increase the production of sunflower oil, a conceptual framework that proposes the combined use of different models to provide insights about the sunflower FVC was developed. This research focus on the identification of agricultural models that can provide a better understanding of the sunflower FVC in Tanzania, especially within the context of food security improvement. A FVC scheme was designed considering the main steps of sunflower production. Thereafter, relevant models were selected and placed along each step of the FVC. As result, the sunflower FVC model in Tanzania is organized in five steps, namely (1) natural resources; (2) crop production; (3) oil processing; (4) trade; and (5) consumption. Step 1 uses environmental indicators to analyse soil parameters on soil-water models (SWAT, LPJmL, APSIM or CroSyst), with outputs providing data for step 2 of the FVC. In the production step, data from step 1, together with other inputs, is used to run crop models (DSSAT, HERMES, MONICA, STICS, EPIC or AquaCrop) that analyse the impact on sunflower yields. Thereafter, outputs from crop models serve as input for bio-economic farm models (FSSIM or MODAM) to estimate production costs and farm income by optimizing resource allocation planning for step 2. In addition, outputs from crop models are used as inputs for macro-economic models (GTAP, MAGNET or MagPie) by adjusting supply functions and environmental impacts within steps 3, 4, and 5. These models simulate supply and demand, including the processing of products to determine prices and trade volumes at market equilibrium. In turn, these data is used by bio-economic farm models to assess sunflower returns for different farm types and agro-environmental conditions. Due to the large variety of models, it is possible to assess significant parts of the FVC, reducing the need to make assumptions, while improving the understanding of the FVC.  
  Address 2018-01-25  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0308-521x ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5187  
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Author Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Heinke, J.; Lucht, W.; Rockström, J. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication Environmental Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Environ. Res. Lett.  
  Volume 11 Issue 2 Pages 025002  
  Keywords sustainable intensification; yield gap; water harvesting; conservation agriculture; irrigation efficiency; food security; climate change adaptation; sub-saharan africa; rain-fed agriculture; dry-spell mitigation; supplemental irrigation; climate-change; smallholder irrigation; environmental impacts; developing-countries; semiarid region; south-africa  
  Abstract As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an ‘ambitious’ scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree.  
  Address  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1748-9326 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, TradeM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4733  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Graef, F.; Sieber, S.; Mutabazi, K.; Asch, F.; Biesalski, H.K.; Bitegeko, J.; Bokelmann, W.; Bruentrup, M.; Dietrich, O.; Elly, N.; Fasse, A.; Germer, J.U.; Grote, U.; Herrmann, L.; Herrmann, R.; Hoffmann, H.; Kahimba, F.C.; Kaufmann, B.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Kilembe, C.; Kimaro, A.; Kinabo, J.; König, B.; König, H.; Lana, M.; Levy, C.; Lyimo-Macha, J.; Makoko, B.; Mazoko, G.; Mbaga, S.H.; Mbogoro, W.; Milling, H.; Mtambo, K.; Mueller, J.; Mueller, C.; Mueller, K.; Nkonja, E.; Reif, C.; Ringler, C.; Ruvuga, S.; Schaefer, M.; Sikira, A.; Silayo, V.; Stahr, K.; Swai, E.; Tumbo, S.; Uckert, G. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Framework for participatory food security research in rural food value chains Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Global Food Security Abbreviated Journal Global Food Security  
  Volume 3 Issue 1 Pages 8-15  
  Keywords food security; food value chain; action research; tanzania; research framework  
  Abstract Enhancing food security for poor and vulnerable people requires adapting rural food systems to various driving factors. Food security-related research should apply participatory action research that considers the entire food value chain to ensure sustained success. This article presents a research framework that focusses on determining, prioritising, testing, adapting and disseminating food securing upgrading strategies across the multiple components of rural food value chains. These include natural resources, Food production, processing, markets, consumption and waste management. Scientists and policy makers jointly use tools developed for assessing potentials for enhancing regional food security at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The research is being conducted in Tanzania as a case study for Sub-Saharan countries and is done in close collaboration with local, regional and national stakeholders, encompassing all activities across all different food sectors. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
  Address  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2211-9124 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, TradeM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4523  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.G.; Fronzek, S. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Projections of climate change impacts on crop production: A global and a Nordic perspective Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science Abbreviated Journal Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science  
  Volume 62 Issue 4 Pages 166-180  
  Keywords climate change; impact projection; food production; uncertainty; crop simulation model; food security; integrated assessment; winter-wheat; scenarios; agriculture; adaptation; temperature; models; yield; scale  
  Abstract Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0906-4702 1651-1972 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes (down) CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4802  
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