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Author |
Calanca, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Theor. Appl. Climatol. |
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Volume |
113 |
Issue |
3-4 |
Pages |
445-455 |
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Keywords |
stochastic weather generators; regional climate; lars-wg; daily; precipitation; models; simulation; europe; temperature; variability; heatwaves |
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Abstract |
We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level. |
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0177-798x 1434-4483 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4484 |
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Yang, H.; Dobbie, S.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Feng, K.; Challinor, A.J.; Chen, B.; Gao, Y.; Lee, L.; Yin, Y.; Sun, L.; Watson, J.; Koehler, A.-K.; Fan, T.; Ghosh, S. |
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Title |
Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: A study of Indian groundnut |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Geophysical Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Geophys. Res. Let. |
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Volume |
43 |
Issue |
22 |
Pages |
11786-11795 |
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Keywords |
Mangrove Tidal Creek; Land-Ocean Boundary; Carbon-Dioxide; Organic-Matter; River Estuary; European Estuaries; CO2 Fluxes; NE Coast; Water; Bay; fCO(2) (water); air-water CO2 flux; Hugli Estuary; Matla Estuary; Blue Carbon; source of CO2 |
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Abstract |
Geoengineering has been proposed to stabilize global temperature, but its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. A few case studies suggest that certain crops are likely to benefit from solar dimming geoengineering, yet we show that geoengineering is projected to have detrimental effects for groundnut. Using an ensemble of crop-climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20% as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5. It is somewhat reassuring, however, to find that after a sustained period of 50 years of geoengineering crop yields return to the nongeoengineered values within a few years once the intervention is ceased. |
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2017-01-20 |
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0094-8276 |
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CropM, ft_MACSUR |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4936 |
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Molina-Herrera, S.; Haas, E.; Grote, R.; Kiese, R.; Klatt, S.; Kraus, D.; Kampffmeyer, T.; Friedrich, R.; Andreae, H.; Loubet, B.; Ammann, C.; Horvath, L.; Larsen, K.; Gruening, C.; Frumau, A.; Butterbach-Bahl, K. |
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Title |
Importance of soil NO emissions for the total atmospheric NOX budget of Saxony, Germany |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Atmospheric Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Atm. Environ. |
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152 |
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61-76 |
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Keywords |
LandscapeDNDC; Model evaluation; NOX emissions; Soil emissions; Distributed modeling; Emission inventory; Nitric-Oxide Emissions; European Forest Soils; Nitrous-Oxide; N2O; Emissions; Agricultural Soils; Gas Emissions; Organic Soil; Trace Gases; Model; Fluxes |
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Soils are a significant source for the secondary greenhouse gas NO and assumed to be a significant source of tropospheric NOx in rural areas. Here we tested the LandscapeDNDC model for its capability to simulate magnitudes and dynamics of soil NO emissions for 22 sites differing in land use (arable, grassland and forest) and edaphic as well as climatic conditions. Overall, LandscapeDNDC simulated mean soil NO emissions agreed well with observations (r(2) = 0.82). However, simulated day to day variations of NO did only agree weakly with high temporal resolution measurements, though agreement between simulations and measurements significantly increased if data were aggregated to weekly, monthly and seasonal time scales. The model reproduced NO emissions from high and low emitting sites, and responded to fertilization (mineral and organic) events with pulse emissions. After evaluation, we linked the LandscapeDNDC model to a GIS database holding spatially explicit data on climate, land use, soil and management to quantify the contribution of soil biogenic NO emissions to the total NOx budget for the State of Saxony, Germany. Our calculations show that soils of both agricultural and forest systems are significant sources and contribute to about 8% (uncertainty range: 6 -13%) to the total annual tropospheric NO, budget for Saxony. However, the contributions of soil NO emission to total tropospheric NO, showed a high spatial variability and in some rural regions such as the Ore Mts., simulated soil NO emissions were by far more important than anthropogenic sources. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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2017-04-07 |
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ISSN |
1352-2310 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4943 |
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Author |
Zimmermann, A.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F.; Kros, J.; Wolf, J.; Britz, W.; de Vries, W. |
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Title |
Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
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157 |
Issue |
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Pages |
81-92 |
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Keywords |
Integrated assessment; Crop management; Climate change; Europe; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE; FOOD SECURITY; HEAT-STRESS; ADAPTATION; SYSTEMS; TEMPERATURE; SCENARIOS; WHEAT; PRODUCTIVITY; Vries W., 2011, ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION, V159, P3254 |
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Impacts of climate change on European agricultural production, land use and the environment depend on its impact on crop yields. However, many impact studies assume that crop management remains unchanged in future scenarios, while farmers may adapt their sowing dates and cultivar thermal time requirements to minimize yield losses or realize yield gains. The main objective of this study was to investigate the sensitivity of climate change impacts on European crop yields, land use, production and environmental variables to adaptations in crops sowing dates and varieties’ thermal time requirements. A crop, economic and environmental model were coupled in an integrated assessment modelling approach for six important crops, for 27 countries of the European Union (EU27) to assess results of three SRES climate change scenarios to 2050. Crop yields under climate change were simulated considering three different management cases; (i) no change in crop management from baseline conditions (NoAd), (ii) adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements to give highest yields to 2050 (Opt) and (iii) a more conservative adaptation of sowing date and thermal time requirements (Act). Averaged across EU27, relative changes in water-limited crop yields due to climate change and increased CO2 varied between -6 and + 21% considering NoAd management, whereas impacts with Opt management varied between + 12 and + 53%, and those under Act management between 2 and + 27%. However, relative yield increases under climate change increased to + 17 and + 51% when technology progress was also considered. Importantly, the sensitivity to crop management assumptions of land use, production and environmental impacts were less pronounced than for crop yields due to the influence of corresponding market, farm resource and land allocation adjustments along the model chain acting via economic optimization of yields. We conclude that assumptions about crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements affect impact variables but to a different extent and generally decreasing for variables affected by economic drivers. |
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2017-11-02 |
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0308-521x |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5178 |
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Author |
Kahiluoto, H.; Kaseva, J.; Balek, J.; Olesen, J.E.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gobin, A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Takac, J.; Ruget, F.; Ferrise, R.; Bezak, P.; Capellades, G.; Dibari, C.; Makinen, H.; Nendel, C.; Ventrella, D.; Rodriguez, A.; Bindi, M.; Trnka, M. |
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Title |
Decline in climate resilience of European wheat |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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Volume |
116 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
123-128 |
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Keywords |
wheat; cultivar; Europe; climate resilience; response diversity; Diversity; Weather; Growth; Shifts; Crops; Yield; Variability |
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Abstract |
Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers’ fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity “deserts” were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation. |
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2019-01-17 |
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0027-8424 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5226 |
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