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Challinor, A.J.; Smith, M.S.; Thornton, P. |
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Title |
Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
170 |
Issue |
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Pages |
2-7 |
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Keywords  |
Climate models; Crop models; Ensembles; Climate change; Adaptation; Food security; Climate variability; Uncertainty; Crop yield |
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Abstract |
► Introduces the special issue on Agricultural prediction using climate model ensembles. ► Discuss remaining scientific challenges. ► Develops distinction between projection- and utility-based ensemble modelling. ► Recommendations made RE modelling and the analysis and reporting of uncertainty. Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop–climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality. |
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2015-09-23 |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4690 |
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Author |
Rusu, T.; Moraru, P.I.; Bogdan, I.; Pop, A.; Coste, C.; Marin, D.I.; Mihalache, M. |
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Title |
Impacts of climate change on agricultural technology management in the Transylvanian Plain, Romania |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Scientific Papers, Series A. Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Scientific Papers, Series A. Agronomy |
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Volume |
Lvi |
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Pages |
113-118 |
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Keywords |
climate monitoring; agricultural technology management; Transylvanian Plain |
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Abstract |
The Transylvanian Plain, Romania is an important region for agronomic productivity. However, limited soils data and adoption of best management practices hinder land productivity. Soil temperatures of the Transylvanian Plain were evaluated using a set of twenty datalogging stations positioned throughout the plain. Each station stores electronic data of ground temperature on 3 different levels of depth (10, 30 and 50 cm), of soil humidity at a depth of 10 cm, of the air temperature at 1 meter and of precipitation. Monitoring the thermal and hydric regime of the area is essential in order to identify and implement sets of measures of adjustment to the impact of climatic changes. After analyzing the recorded data, thermic and hydric, in the Transylvanian Plain, we recommend as optimal sowing period, advancing those known in the literature, with 5 days for corn and soybeans, and maintaining the same optimum period for sunflower and sugar beet. Water requirements are provided in an optimum, of 58.8 to 62.1% for the spring weeding crops during the growing season, thus irrigation is necessary to ensure optimum production potential. The amount of biological active degrees registered in Transylvanian Plain shows the necessity to reconstruct crop zoning, known in the literature, for the analyzed crops: wheat, corn, soy, sunflower and sugar beet. |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4614 |
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Höglind, M.; Thorsen, S.M.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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170 |
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103-113 |
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Keywords |
climatic variability; frost damage; grass modelling; ice damage; multi-model ensemble; elevated co2 concentration; phleum-pratense l; timothy regrowth; change scenarios; winter survival; meadow fescue; crop yields; growth; frost; temperature |
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Abstract |
Forage-based dairy and livestock production is the backbone of agriculture in Northern Europe in economic terms. Changes in growing conditions that affect forage grass yield may have great economic consequences. This study assessed the impact of climate change on two grass species, timothy and ryegrass, at 14 locations in Northern Europe (Iceland, Scandinavia, Baltic countries) in a near-future scenario (2040-2065) compared with the baseline period 1960-1990. Local-scale climate scenarios were based on the CMIP3 multi-model ensembles of 15 global climate models in order to quantify the uncertainty in the impacts relating to highly uncertain projections of future climate. Potential yield of timothy, the most important perennial forage grass in Northern Europe, was simulated under the assumption of optimal overwintering conditions and current CO2 level, in order to obtain an estimate of the effect of changes in summer climate per se. The risk of frost and ice damage during winter was also assessed. The simulation results demonstrated that potential grass yield will increase throughout the study area, mainly as a result of increased growing temperatures. The yield response to climate change was slightly larger in irrigated than non-irrigated conditions (14% and 11%, respectively), due to larger water deficit for the 2050 scenario. However, a geo-climatic gradient was evident, with the largest predicted yield response at western locations. A geo-climatic gradient was also revealed with respect to potential frost damage, which was predicted to increase during winter in some areas east of the Baltic Sea for timothy, and for a larger number of locations both east and west of the Baltic Sea for perennial ryegrass. The risk of frost damage in spring was predicted to increase mainly in western parts of the study area. If frost damage to perennial ryegrass increases during winter, the expected increase in winter temperature due to global warming may not necessarily improve overwintering conditions, so the growing zone may not necessarily expand to the north and east of the study area by 2050. The uncertainty in impacts was frequently, but not consistently, greater in western than eastern locations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, LiveM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4492 |
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Author |
Fürst, C.; Helming, K.; Lorz, C.; Müller, F.; Verburg, P.H. |
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Title |
Integrated land use and regional resource management--a cross-disciplinary dialogue on future perspectives for a sustainable development of regional resources |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
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127 Suppl |
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S1-S5 |
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Keywords |
Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods; Analytical framework for integrated planning; Integrated land use; Regional planning; Regional resource management; Sustainable regional development |
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Our paper introduces objectives and ideas of the special issue “Integrated land use and regional resource management – A cross-disciplinary dialogue on future perspectives for a sustainable development of regional resources” and provides an overview on the contributions of the single papers in the special issue to this topic. Furthermore, we discuss and present major challenges and demands on integrated land use and regional resource management and we come up with an analytical framework how to correspond these demands. |
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0301-4797 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4826 |
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König, H.J.; Uthes, S.; Schuler, J.; Zhen, L.; Purushothaman, S.; Suarma, U.; Sghaier, M.; Makokha, S.; Helming, K.; Sieber, S.; Chen, L.; Brouwer, F.; Morris, J.; Wiggering, H. |
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Title |
Regional impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries using the FoPIA approach: findings from five case studies |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
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127 Suppl |
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S56-S64 |
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Keywords |
Conservation of Natural Resources; Developing Countries; Environmental Monitoring/*methods; (Ex-ante) impact assessment; Indicators; Land use change; Scenario study; Stakeholder participation; Sustainable development |
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The impact of land use changes on sustainable development is of increasing interest in many regions of the world. This study aimed to test the transferability of the Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA), which was originally developed in the European context, to developing countries, in which lack of data often prevents the use of data-driven impact assessment methods. The core aspect of FoPIA is the stakeholder-based assessment of alternative land use scenarios. Scenario impacts on regional sustainability are assessed by using a set of nine regional land use functions (LUFs), which equally cover the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. The cases analysed in this study include (1) the alternative spatial planning policies around the Merapi volcano and surrounding areas of Yogyakarta City, Indonesia; (2) the large-scale afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan, China; (3) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia; (4) the agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur, India; and (5) the land degradation and land conflicts resulting from land division and privatisation in Narok, Kenya. All five regions are characterised by population growth, partially combined with considerable economic development, environmental degradation problems and social conflicts. Implications of the regional scenario impacts as well as methodological aspects are discussed. Overall, FoPIA proved to be a useful tool for diagnosing regional human-environment interactions and for supporting the communication and social learning process among different stakeholder groups. |
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0301-4797 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4474 |
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