Abstract: Predicting regional and global carbon (C) and water dynamics on grasslands has become of major interest, as grasslands are one of the most widespread vegetation types worldwide, providing a number of ecosystem services (such as forage production and C storage). The present study is a contribution to a regional-scale analysis of the C and water cycles on managed grasslands. The mechanistic biogeochemical model PaSim (Pasture Simulation model) was evaluated at 12 grassland sites in Europe. A new parameterization was obtained on a common set of eco-physiological parameters, which represented an improvement of previous parameterization schemes (essentially obtained via calibration at specific sites). We found that C and water fluxes estimated with the parameter set are in good agreement with observations. The model with the new parameters estimated that European grassland are a sink of C with 213 g C m(-2) yr(-1), which is close to the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE) flux of the studied sites (185 g C m(-2) yr(-1) on average). The estimated yearly average gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RECO) for all of the study sites are 1220 and 1006 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively, in agreement with observed average GPP (1230 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) and RECO (1046 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). For both variables aggregated on a weekly basis, the root mean square error (RMSE) was similar to 5-16 g C week(-1) across the study sites, while the goodness of fit (R-2) was similar to 0.4-0.9. For evapotranspiration (ET), the average value of simulated ET (415 mmyr(-1)) for all sites and years is close to the average value of the observed ET (451 mm yr(-1)) by flux towers (on a weekly basis, RMSE similar to 2-8 mm week(-1); R-2 = 0.3-0.9). However, further model development is needed to better represent soil water dynamics under dry conditions and soil temperature in winter. A quantification of the uncertainties introduced by spatially generalized parameter values in C and water exchange estimates is also necessary. In addition, some uncertainties in the input management data call for the need to improve the quality of the observational system.

Abstract: Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (-2 to +9 degrees C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Abstract: Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.