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Rusu, T.; Moraru, P.; Coste, C.; Cacovean, H.; Chetan, F.; Chetan, C. |
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Title |
Impact of climate change on climatic indicators in Transylvanian Plain, Romania |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment |
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Volume |
12 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
469-473 |
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Climate change; climatic indicators; Transylvanian plain |
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Abstract |
The condition of land degradation in Transylvanian Plain and its effects, being the result of local extreme physical-geographical conditions, is susceptible to degradation (evidenced by the erodibility index), which overlaps the extreme climatic conditions. Thermal and hydric regime monitoring is necessary in order to identify and implement measures of adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Soil moisture and temperature regimes were evaluated using a set of 20 data logging stations positioned throughout the plain. Each station stores electronic data of ground temperature at 3 depths (10, 30, 50 cm), the humidity at the depth of 10 cm, the air temperature (at 1 m) and precipitations. Climate change in the past few years has significantly altered the climatic indicators of the Transylvanian Plain. Precipitations, although deficient in terms of annual amounts, through their regime, have a negative influence on the plant carpet. Pluvial aggressiveness index reveals, for the research period, a first peak of pluvial aggressiveness during the months of February-April, then in July and in autumn, the months of October-November. This requires special measures for soil conservation, both in autumn and early spring, soil tillage measures being recommended, which ensure the presence of plant debris and vegetation in early spring but especially in summer and autumn. Climatic indicators determined for the period 2008 – 2012 point out, in Transylvanian Plain, a semi-arid Mediterranean climate through the rain factor Lang, respectively semi-arid (in the South) – semi-wet (in the North) according to the De Martonne index. This climatic characterization requires special technological measures for soil conservation. |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4638 |
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Author |
Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C. |
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Title |
Site-specific impacts of climate change on wheat production across regions of Germany using different CO2 response functions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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52 |
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22-32 |
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Keywords |
climate change; co2 effect; crop yield; water use efficiency; groundwater; modeling nitrogen dynamics; winter-wheat; carbon-dioxide; assessing uncertainties; agricultural crops; potential impact; enrichment face; elevated co2; soil; simulation |
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Impact of climate change on crop growth, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching in winter wheat production in Germany was assessed using the agro-ecosystem model HERMES with a downscaled (WETTREG) climate change scenario A1B from the ECHAM5 global circulation model. Three alternative algorithms describing the impact of atmospheric CO2 concentration on crop growth (a simple Farquhar-type algorithm, a combined light-use efficiency – maximum assimilation approach and a simple scaling of the maximum assimilation rate) in combination with a Penman-Monteith approach which includes a simple stomata conduction model for evapotranspiration under changing CO2 concentrations were compared within the framework of the HERMES model. The effect of differences in regional climate change, site conditions and different CO2 algorithms on winter wheat yield, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching was assessed in 22 regional simulation case studies across Germany. Results indicate that the effects of climate change on wheat production will vary across Germany due to different regional expressions of climate change projection. Predicted yield changes between the reference period (1961-1990) and a future period (2021-2050) range from -0.4 t ha(-1), -0.8 t ha(-1) and -0.6 t ha(-1) at sites in southern Germany to +0.8 t ha(-1), +0.6 t ha(-1) and +0.8 t ha(-1) at coastal regions for the three CO2 algorithms, respectively. On average across all regions, a relative yield change of +0.9%, +3.0%, and +6.0%, respectively, was predicted for Germany. In contrast, a decrease of -11.6% was predicted without the consideration of a CO2 effect. However, simulated yield changes differed even within regions as site conditions had a strong influence on crop growth. Particularly, groundwater-affected sites showed a lower vulnerability to increasing drought risk. Groundwater recharge was estimated to change correspondingly to changes in precipitation. The consideration of the CO2 effect on transpiration in the model led to a prediction of higher rates of annual deep percolation (+16 mm on average across all sites), which was due to higher water-use efficiency of the crops. In contrast to groundwater recharge, simulated nitrogen leaching varied with the choice of the photosynthesis algorithm, predicting a slight reduction in most of the areas. The results underline the necessity of high-resolution data for model-based regional climate change impact assessment and development of adaptation measures. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4527 |
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Author |
Müller, C.; Robertson, R.D. |
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Title |
Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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Agricultural Economics |
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Agric. Econ. |
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45 |
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1 |
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37-50 |
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climate change; crop modeling; agricultural productivity; land use; greenhouse-gas emissions; soil organic-carbon; sub-saharan africa; climate-change; elevated co2; land-use; system model; wheat yields; maize yields; agriculture |
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Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10-38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change. |
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0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4533 |
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Höhn, J.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Impact of global warming on European cereal production |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
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CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
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9 |
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022 |
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1-15 |
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Climate change; Food security; Uncertainty; Wheat; Maize; Barley |
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This review examines relevant impact assessments identified by a literature search from 1991to date. A bibliographic search was applied to the CAB Abstracts database with a given searchstring. Resultant papers were checked for relevance, based on expert judgment. This yielded 91 papers, which were subjected to further analysis. Firstly, publication intensity over time and distribution by geographic location and cereal crop were examined. Next, for a given crop, the assessments and their outcomes were grouped by type and number of the change variables considered – that is, effects of climate change only, elevated CO 2 and technological progress(improved breeds, management). Finally, separately for individual countries/subregions and Europe as a whole, we examined whether and to what extent study results have changed over time, for example become more positive/negative. Based on our sample, we found that publication intensity increased exponentially during thelast 4 years, the majority of studies are Europe-wide, but some concentrated on a few countries(Italy, Spain and UK), whereby studies on wheat are clearly most popular. Taking the factor of technological progress into account has an overruling influence on results. Finally, over time, projected yield impacts have become more negative. This is in line with finding from global analyses, as reflected by the most recent comparison of agricultural impact chapters, of the 4thand 5th Assessment Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II.In the future, there is particular need to consider impacts under various incremental and transformational adaptation measures in more depth (e.g. their interconnections across scales)and with more breadth (e.g. anticipated new breeds). Follow-up reviews should also examine how projected impacts are changing with the new climate scenario data sets (CMIP5) and with improved impact models and assessment approaches. |
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1749-8848 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4524 |
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Sánchez, B.; Rasmussen, A.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
Temperatures and the growth and development of maize and rice: a review |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
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Glob. Chang. Biol. |
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20 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
408-417 |
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Climate Change; Oryza/*growth & development; Temperature; Zea mays/*growth & development; cardinal temperatures; climatic change impacts; development; growth; lethal temperatures; maize; rice |
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Because of global land surface warming, extreme temperature events are expected to occur more often and more intensely, affecting the growth and development of the major cereal crops in several ways, thus affecting the production component of food security. In this study, we have identified rice and maize crop responses to temperature in different, but consistent, phenological phases and development stages. A literature review and data compilation of around 140 scientific articles have determined the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice and maize, complementing an earlier study on wheat. Lethal temperatures and cardinal temperatures, together with error estimates, have been identified for phenological phases and development stages. Following the methodology of previous work, we have collected and statistically analysed temperature thresholds of the three crops for the key physiological processes such as leaf initiation, shoot growth and root growth and for the most susceptible phenological phases such as sowing to emergence, anthesis and grain filling. Our summary shows that cardinal temperatures are conservative between studies and are seemingly well defined in all three crops. Anthesis and ripening are the most sensitive temperature stages in rice as well as in wheat and maize. We call for further experimental studies of the effects of transgressing threshold temperatures so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. |
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1354-1013 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4693 |
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