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Author Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schmitz, C.; Dietrich, J.P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Valuing the impact of trade on local blue water Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Ecological Economics Abbreviated Journal Ecol. Econ.  
  Volume 101 Issue Pages 43-53  
  Keywords virtual water; blue and green water; water scarcity; agricultural trade; global vegetation model; virtual water; crop trade; resources; scarcity; food; footprints; products; flows; green  
  Abstract International trade of agricultural goods impacts local water scarcity. By quantifying the effect of trade on crop production on grid-cell level and combining it with cell- and crop-specific virtual water contents, we are able to determine green and blue water consumption and savings. Connecting the information on trade-related blue water usage to water shadow prices gives us the possibility to value the impact of international food crop trade on local blue water resources. To determine the trade-related value of the blue water usage, we employ two models: first, an economic land- and water-use model, simulating agricultural trade, production and water-shadow prices and second, a global vegetation and agricultural model, modeling the blue and green virtual water content of the traded crops. Our study found that globally, the international trade of food crops saves blue water worth 2.4 billion US$. This net saving occurs despite the fact that Europe exports virtual blue water in food crops worth 3.1 billion US$. Countries in the Middle East and South Asia profit from trade by importing water intensive crops, countries in Southern Europe on the other hand export water intensive agricultural goods from water scarce sites, deteriorating local water scarcity. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN (up) 0921-8009 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4512  
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Author Graß, R.; Thies, B.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Wachendorf, M. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Simulating dry matter yield of two cropping systems with the simulation model HERMES to evaluate impact of future climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication European Journal of Agronomy Abbreviated Journal European Journal of Agronomy  
  Volume 70 Issue Pages 1-10  
  Keywords Climate change; Double cropping system; Biomass yield; Sowing and; harvesting dates; mean-square error; nitrogen dynamics; wheat production; carbon-dioxide; soil; water; management; sunflower; responses; crops  
  Abstract Regionalized model calculations showed increased rainfall and temperatures in winter and less precipitation and higher temperatures in summer due to climate change effects in the future for numerous countries in the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, model simulations predicted enhanced weather variability with an increased risk of yield losses and reduced yield stability. Recently, double cropping systems (DCS) were suggested as an environmental friendly and productive adaptation strategy with increased yield stability. This paper reviews the potential benefit of four DCS (rye (Secale cereale L.) as first crop and maize (Zea mays L.), sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), sorghum (Sorghum sudanense L. x Sorghum bicolor L.) and sudan grass (S. sudanense L.) as second crops) in comparison with four conventional sole cropping systems (SCS) (maize, sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass) with regard to dry matter (DM) yield and soil water under conditions of climate change. We used the agro-ecosystem model HERMES for simulating these variables until the year 2100. The investigated crops sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass were parameterised first for HERMES achieving a satisfying performance. Results showed always higher DM yields per year of DCS compared with SCS. This was mainly caused by yield increases of the first crop winter rye harvested at the stage of milk ripeness. As a winter hardy crop, rye will benefit from increased precipitation and higher temperatures during winter months as well as from extended growth periods with an earlier onset in spring and an increase of growing days. Furthermore, rye is able to use the increased winter humidity for its spring growth in an efficient way. By contrast, model simulations showed that summer crops will be affected by reduced precipitation and higher temperatures during summer month for periods from 2050 onwards with the consequence of reduced yields. This yield reduction was found for all summer crops both in conventional sole crop and in DCS. Preponed harvesting of first crop winter rye as a consequence of earlier onset of growth period in spring under prospective climatic conditions lead to yield decrease, which could not be equalised by preponed sowing of second crops and extension of their growth period. Hence, total annual yield of both crops together decreased. The modification of sowing and harvesting dates as an adaptation strategy requires further research with the use of more holistic simulation models. To summarize, DCS may provide a promising adaptation strategy to effects of climate change with a substantial stabilisation of crop yields.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN (up) 1161-0301 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4659  
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Author Doro, L.; Jones, C.; Williams, J.R.; Norfleet, M.L.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Wang, X.; Jeong, J. doi  openurl
  Title The Variable Saturation Hydraulic Conductivity Method for Improving Soil Water Content Simulation in EPIC and APEX Models Type Journal Article
  Year 2017 Publication Vadose Zone Journal Abbreviated Journal Vadose Zone Journal  
  Volume 16 Issue 13 Pages  
  Keywords Conservation Effects Assessment; Runoff Simulation; Unsaturated Soils; United-States; Porous-Media; Moisture; Flow; Productivity; Transport; Denitrification  
  Abstract Soil water percolation is a key process in the life cycle of water in fields, watersheds, and river basins. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) and the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) are continuous models developed for evaluating the environmental effects of agricultural management. Traditionally, these models have simulated soil water percolation processes using a tipping-bucket approach, with the rate of flow limited by the saturated hydraulic conductivity. This simple approach often leads to inaccuracy in simulating elevated soil water conditions where soil water content (SWC) levels may remain above field capacity under prolonged wet weather periods or limited drainage. To overcome this deficiency, a new sub-model, the variable saturation hydraulic conductivity (VSHC) method, was developed for simulating soil water percolation processes using a nonlinear equation to estimate the effective hydraulic conductivity as a function of the SWC and soil properties. The VSHC method was evaluated at three sites in the United States and two sites in Europe. In addition, a numerical solution of the Richards equation was used as a benchmark for SWC comparison. Results show that the VSHC method substantially improves the accuracy of the SWC simulation in long-term simulations, particularly during wet periods. At the watershed scale, results on the Riesel Y2 watershed indicate that the VSHC method enhances model performance in the high-flow regime of channel peak flows because of the improved estimation of SWC, which implies that the improved SWC simulation at the field scale is beneficial to hydrologic modeling at the watershed scale.  
  Address 2018-09-07  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN (up) 1539-1663 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5208  
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Author Olesen, J.E.; Børgesen, C.D.; Elsgaard, L.; Palosuo, T.; Rötter, R.P.; Skjelvåg, A.O.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Börjesson, T.; Trnka, M.; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Brisson, N.; Eitzinger, J.; van Asselt, E.D.; Oberforster, M.; van der Fels-Klerx, H.J. doi  openurl
  Title Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2012 Publication Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A Abbreviated Journal Food Addit. Contam. Part A  
  Volume 29 Issue 10 Pages 1527-1542  
  Keywords Agriculture/*methods/trends; Avena/growth & development; *Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Edible Grain/*growth & development; Europe; Flowering Tops/growth & development; Forecasting/methods; Germination; Humans; Models, Biological; Models, Statistical; Seasons; Seeds/growth & development; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Triticum/growth & development; Zea mays/growth & development  
  Abstract The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN (up) 1944-0049 1944-0057 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4590  
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Author Luo, K.; Tao, F.; Moiwo, J.P.; Xiao, D. doi  openurl
  Title Attribution of hydrological change in Heihe River Basin to climate and land use change in the past three decades Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication Scientific Reports Abbreviated Journal Scientific Reports  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages 33704  
  Keywords water-resources; groundwater recharge; stream-flow; surface-energy; china; runoff; impact; evapotranspiration; cover; availability; Science & Technology – Other Topics  
  Abstract The contributions of climate and land use change (LUCC) to hydrological change in Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China were quantified using detailed climatic, land use and hydrological data, along with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The results showed that for the 1980s, the changes in the basin hydrological change were due more to LUCC (74.5%) than to climate change (21.3%). While LUCC accounted for 60.7% of the changes in the basin hydrological change in the 1990s, climate change explained 57.3% of that change. For the 2000s, climate change contributed 57.7% to hydrological change in the HRB and LUCC contributed to the remaining 42.0%. Spatially, climate had the largest effect on the hydrology in the upstream region of HRB, contributing 55.8%, 61.0% and 92.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. LUCC had the largest effect on the hydrology in the middle-stream region of HRB, contributing 92.3%, 79.4% and 92.8% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Interestingly, the contribution of LUCC to hydrological change in the upstream, middle-stream and downstream regions and the entire HRB declined continually over the past 30 years. This was the complete reverse (a sharp increase) of the contribution of climate change to hydrological change in HRB.  
  Address 2016-10-18  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  ISSN (up) 2045-2322 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4668  
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