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Höhn, J.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Impact of global warming on European cereal production |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
Abbreviated Journal |
CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources |
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9 |
Issue |
022 |
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1-15 |
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Keywords |
Climate change; Food security; Uncertainty; Wheat; Maize; Barley |
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This review examines relevant impact assessments identified by a literature search from 1991to date. A bibliographic search was applied to the CAB Abstracts database with a given searchstring. Resultant papers were checked for relevance, based on expert judgment. This yielded 91 papers, which were subjected to further analysis. Firstly, publication intensity over time and distribution by geographic location and cereal crop were examined. Next, for a given crop, the assessments and their outcomes were grouped by type and number of the change variables considered – that is, effects of climate change only, elevated CO 2 and technological progress(improved breeds, management). Finally, separately for individual countries/subregions and Europe as a whole, we examined whether and to what extent study results have changed over time, for example become more positive/negative. Based on our sample, we found that publication intensity increased exponentially during thelast 4 years, the majority of studies are Europe-wide, but some concentrated on a few countries(Italy, Spain and UK), whereby studies on wheat are clearly most popular. Taking the factor of technological progress into account has an overruling influence on results. Finally, over time, projected yield impacts have become more negative. This is in line with finding from global analyses, as reflected by the most recent comparison of agricultural impact chapters, of the 4thand 5th Assessment Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II.In the future, there is particular need to consider impacts under various incremental and transformational adaptation measures in more depth (e.g. their interconnections across scales)and with more breadth (e.g. anticipated new breeds). Follow-up reviews should also examine how projected impacts are changing with the new climate scenario data sets (CMIP5) and with improved impact models and assessment approaches. |
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1749-8848 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4524 |
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Author |
Bulak, P.; Walkiewicz, A.; Brzezińska, M. |
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Title |
Plant growth regulators-assisted phytoextraction |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Biologia Plantarum |
Abbreviated Journal |
Biol. Plant. |
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58 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
1-8 |
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auxins; cytokinins; gibberelins; heavy metals; phytoremediation; pollutants; Zea-mays l.; heavy-metals; Pteris-vittata; organic-acids; molecular-mechanisms; contaminated soils; Sedum-alfredii; lead uptake; hyperaccumulation; phytoremediation |
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Plant growth regulators (PRG)-assisted phytoremediation is a technique that could enhance the yield of heavy metal accumulation in plant tissues. So far, a small number of experiments have helped identify three groups of plant hormones that may be useful for this purpose: auxins, cytokinins, and gibberellins. Studies have shown that these hormones positively affect the degree of accumulation of metallic impurities and improve the growth and stress resistance of plants. This review summarizes the present knowledge about PGRs’ impact on phytoextraction yield. |
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0006-3134 |
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Review |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4515 |
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Bellocchi, G.; Ma, S. |
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Results of uncalibrated grassland model runs |
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Report |
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2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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3 |
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D-L2.3 |
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This deliverable focuses on the some illustrative results obtained with the grassland models selected (D-L2.1.1) to simulate biomass and flux data from grassland sites in Europe and peri-Mediterranean regions (D-L2.1.1 and D-L2.1.2). This is a blind exercise, carried out without model calibration. The complete set of results will include simulations from calibrated models. The results shown are illustrative of the methodology adopted for grassland model intercomparison in MACSUR. The insights gained from this ongoing study are relevant for some crop and vegetation models, which in some cases proved comparable to grassland-specific models to simulate biomass data from managed grasslands. The results reported here cannot be considered conclusive. Additional results will be published as they become available together with calibration results, as well as the comprehensive evaluation of models with fuzzy logic-based indicators. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2234 |
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Bellocchi, G.; Rivington, M.; Acutis, M. |
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Title |
Protocol for model evaluation |
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2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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3 |
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D-L2.2/D |
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This deliverable focuses on the development of methods for model evaluation in order to have unambiguous indications derived from the use of several evaluation metrics. The information about model quality is aggregated into a single indicator using a fuzzy expert system that can be applied to a wide range of model estimates where suitable test data are available. This is a cross-cutting activity between CropM (C1.4) and LiveM (L2.2). No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2229 |
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von Lampe, M.; Willenbockel, D.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Cai, Y.; Calvin, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mason, d’C., Daniel; Nelson, G.C.; Sands, R.D.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; van Meijl, H. |
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Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
3-3 |
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Computable general equilibrium; Partial equilibrium; Meta-analysis; Socioeconomic pathway; Climate change; Bioenergy; Land use; Model; intercomparison; land-use change; food demand; crop productivity; climate-change; future |
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Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of real world commodity prices differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between -0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0169-5150 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4822 |
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