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Perego, A., Giussani, A., Fumagalli, M., Sanna, M., Chiodini, M., Carozzi, M., et al. (2013). Crop rotation, fertilizer types and application timing affecting nitrogen leaching in nitrate vulnerable zones in Po Valley. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, 3(2), 39–50.
Abstract: A critical analysis was performed to evaluate the potential risk of nitrate leaching towards groundwater in three Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs) of the Lombardia plain by applying the ARMOSA crop simulation model over a 20 years period (1988-2007). Each studied area was characterized by (i) two representative soil types, (ii) a meteorological data set, (iii) four crop rotations according to the regional land use, (iv) organic N load, calculated on the basis of livestock density. We simulated 3 scenarios defined by different fertilization time and amount of mineral and organic fertilizers. The A scenario involved no limitation in organic N application, while under the B and C scenarios the N organic amount was 170 and 250 kg N ha(-1)y(-1), respectively. The C scenario was compliant with the requirement of the 2012 Italian derogation, allowing only the use of organic manure with an efficiency greater than 65%. The model results highlighted that nitrate leaching was significantly reduced passing from the A scenario to the B and C ones (p<0.01); on average nitrogen losses decreased by up to 53% from A to B and up to 75% from A to C.
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Irz, X., & Kuosmanen, N. (2013). Explaining growth in demand for dairy products in Finland: an econometric analysis. Food Economics, 9(sup5), 47–56.
Abstract: The dairy sector represents the cornerstone of Finnish agriculture but faces new challenges linked to the decoupling of farm subsidies and abolition of milk production quotas. Because of its increasing exposure to market forces, the sector must anticipate future changes in demand and deliver precisely what Finnish consumers want. This paper contributes to that goal by analyzing retroactively the drivers of demand for dairy products over the period 1975–2010 using National Accounts Data. After presenting the evolution of consumption for dairy products, we estimate a complete system of demand for food and dairy products and use it to decompose demand growth into a substitution effect, income effect, and trend effect. The analysis points to the severity of the challenges that the sector is facing. Stagnant consumption is at least partially the result of continuous but adverse taste changes, and as Finnish consumers grow more prosperous, they allocate an increasingly smaller share of their food budget to the dairy group. The low own-price elasticity of demand for dairy products also limits the benefits to the sector of growth in milk production. Hence, business-as-usual will result in the dwindling importance of the dairy sector in the Finnish food chain. Innovation and product differentiation, perhaps emphasizing the attributes of livestock production processes, are clearly required to counter this evolution.
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Watson, J., & Challinor, A. (2013). The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional-scale crop model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 47–57.
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Humblot, P., Jayet, P. A., Clerino, P., Leconte-Demarsy, D., Szopa, S., & Castell, J. F. (2013). Assessment of ozone impacts on farming systems: a bio-economic modeling approach applied to the widely diverse French case. Ecol. Econ., 85, 50–58.
Abstract: As a result of anthropogenic activities, ozone is produced in the surface atmosphere, causing direct damage to plants and reducing crop yields. By combining a biophysical crop model with an economic supply model we were able to predict and quantify this effect at a fine spatial resolution. We applied our approach to the very varied French case and showed that ozone has significant productivity and land-use effects. A comparison of moderate and high ozone scenarios for 2030 shows that wheat production may decrease by more than 30% and barley production may increase by more than 14% as surface ozone concentration increases. These variations are due to the direct effect of ozone on yields as well as to modifications in land use caused by a shift toward more ozone-resistant crops: our study predicts a 16% increase in the barley-growing area and an equal decrease in the wheat-growing area. Moreover, mean agricultural gross margin losses can go as high as 2.5% depending on the ozone scenario, and can reach 7% in some particularly affected regions. A rise in ozone concentration was also associated with a reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions of about 2%, as a result of decreased use of nitrogen fertilizers. One noteworthy result was that major impacts, including changes in land use, do not necessarily occur in ozone high concentration zones, and may strongly depend on farm systems and their adaptation capability. Our study suggests that policy makers should view ozone pollution as a major potential threat to agricultural yields. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Sieber, S., Amjath-Babu, T. S., McIntosh, B. S., Tscherning, K., Müller, K., Helming, K., et al. (2013). Evaluating the characteristics of a non-standardised Model Requirements Analysis (MRA) for the development of policy impact assessment tools. Env. Model. Softw., 49, 53–63.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to provide a critical analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of a non-standardised Model Requirements Analysis (MRA) used for the purpose of developing the Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT). By ‘non-standardised’ we mean not strictly following a published MRA method. The underlying question we are interested in addressing is how non-standardised methods, often employed in research driven projects, compare to defined methods with more standardised structure, with regards their ability to capture model requirements effectively, and with regards their overall usability. Through describing and critically assessing the specific features of the non-standardised MRA employed, the ambition of this paper is to provide insights useful for impact assessment tool (IAT) development. Specifically, the paper will (i) characterise kinds of user requirements relevant to the functionality and design of IATs; (ii) highlight the strengths and weaknesses of non-standardised MRA for user requirements capture, analysis and reflection in the context of IAT; (iii) critically reflect on the process and outcomes of having used a non-standardised MRA in comparison with other more standardised approaches. To accomplish these aims, we first review methods available for IAT development before describing the SIAT development process, including the MRA employed. Major strengths and weaknesses of the MRA method are then discussed in terms of user identification and characterisation, organisational characterisation and embedding, and ability to capture design options for ensuring usability and usefulness. A detailed assessment on the structural differences of MRA with two advanced approaches (Integrated DSS design and goal directed design) and their role in performance of the MRA tool is used to critique the approach employed. The results show that MRA is able to bring thematic integration, establish system performance and technical thresholds as well as detailing quality and transparency guidelines. Nevertheless the discussion points out to a number of deficiencies in application – (i) a need to more effectively characterise potential users, and; (ii) a need to better foster communication among the distinguished roles in the development process. If addressed these deficiencies, SIAT non-standardised MRA could have brought out better outcomes in terms of tool usability and usefulness, and improved embedding of the tool into conditions of targeted end-users. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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