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Müller, C. |
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Title |
Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Modeling |
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2014 |
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Capacity Building Workshop for Regional Scientists Turn Down the Heat III: Regional Analysis (MNA/LAC/ECA), The Case for Resilience, Potsdam, Germany, 2014-03-11 to 2014-03-13 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2669 |
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Author |
Müller, C. |
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Title |
Climate change impacts, uncertainties and implications |
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Conference Article |
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2013 |
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First Workshop Expert Network Management of Climate change induced Risks, Hamburg, Germany, 2013-03-20 to 2013-03-21 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2665 |
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Author |
Müller, C. |
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Title |
Multi-sector interaction in climate change impact analysis |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2013 |
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Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2666 |
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Author |
Müller, C. |
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Title |
African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
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Annual Review of Nutrition |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ann. Rev. Nutr. |
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33 |
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1 |
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395-411 |
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Africa/epidemiology; *Climate Change/economics; Crops, Agricultural/economics/*growth & development; Diet/adverse effects/economics; Forecasting; *Global Health/economics/trends; Humans; Malnutrition/economics/epidemiology/prevention & control; *Models, Theoretical; Risk; Soil/chemistry; Water Resources/economics |
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Climate change impact assessments on agriculture are subject to large uncertainties, as demonstrated in the present review of recent studies for Africa. There are multiple reasons for differences in projections, including uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and patterns of climate change; assumptions on future management, aggregation, and spatial extent; and methodological differences. Still, all projections agree that climate change poses a significant risk to African agriculture. Most projections also see the possibility of increasing agricultural production under climate change, especially if suitable adaptation measures are assumed. Climate change is not the only projected pressure on African agriculture, which struggles to meet demand today and may need to feed an additional one billion individuals by 2050. Development strategies are urgently needed, but they will need to consider future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing synergies between climate change adaptation and development can be exploited. |
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English |
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0199-9885 1545-4312 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4496 |
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Author |
Moriondo, M.; Ferrise, R.; Trombi, G.; Brilli, L.; Dibari, C.; Bindi, M. |
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Title |
Modelling olive trees and grapevines in a changing climate |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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72 |
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387-401 |
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tree crops; climate change; simulation models; crop yield; vitis-vinifera l.; air co2 enrichment; soil-water content; elevated co2; mediterranean basin; cropping systems; growth; yield; carbon; simulation |
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Abstract |
The models developed for simulating olive tree and grapevine yields were reviewed by focussing on the major limitations of these models for their application in a changing climate. Empirical models, which exploit the statistical relationship between climate and yield, and process based models, where crop behaviour is defined by a range of relationships describing the main plant processes, were considered. The results highlighted that the application of empirical models to future climatic conditions (i.e. future climate scenarios) is unreliable since important statistical approaches and predictors are still lacking. While process-based models have the potential for application in climate-change impact assessments, our analysis demonstrated how the simulation of many processes affected by warmer and CO2-enriched conditions may give rise to important biases. Conversely, some crop model improvements could be applied at this stage since specific sub-models accounting for the effect of elevated temperatures and CO2 concentration were already developed. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4691 |
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