Abstract: This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE <LINTUL5, DRUNIR, HEAT>. We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1)). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.

Abstract: This study developed Adaptation Response Surfaces and applied them to a study case in North East Spain on winter crops adaptation, using rainfed winter wheat as reference crop.  Crop responses to perturbed temperature, precipitation and CO2 were simulated by an ensemble of crop models. A set of combined changes on cultivars (on vernalisation requirements and phenology) and management (on sowing date and irrigation) were considered as adaptation options and simulated by the crop model ensemble. The discussion focused on two main issues: 1) the recommended adaptation options for different soil types and perturbation levels, and 2) the need of applying our current knowledge (AOCK) when building a crop model ensemble. The study has been published Agricultural Systems (Available online 25 January 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009 ), and the  text below consists on extracts from that paper.

Abstract: This study deals with observed and simulated growth, development and yield of the fresh-market Thomas F1 tomato bush cultivar (Solanum lycopersicum L.) grown under open field conditions at farm scale in the Elbe lowland. The CROPGRO-Tomato model used in this study is part of the DSSAT V4.5 software. The model has been calibrated with growth analyses data from field experiments, agronomic evidence (GC UPRAVY software) and the most currently available data from the literature sources of cardinal temperatures for tomato phenology, fruit growth and photosynthesis (Tb – base temperature; Topt1 – the lowest temperature at which maximum rate is attained; Topt2 – the upper temperature at which maximum rate is sustained; Tmax – maximum temperature). The sampling plants were collected a once 14 days for analysis of basic physiological parameters: LAI (Leaf area index), LAR (Leaf Area Ratio), C (Crop Growth Rate), RGRw (Relative Growth Rate) and NAR (Net Assimilation Rate). Phenology observation was done weakly. Meteorological, soil and agro-technical parameters across the fields were monitored. The treatments were well-irrigated and well-fertilised, and therefore, no water or N stress was present.Parameters affecting leaf growth, dry biomass productions, and dry biomass of leaves, stem and generative organs from planting to harvest were calibrated against the observed data. Phenological development and growth processes such as leaf expansion and fruit growth depend on cardinal temperatures. Leaf area expansion depends on the new leaf mas produced and specific leaf area, which is influenced by light, temperature, root N uptake, and plant water status. Starting date for the simulation corresponds with transplanting date of the crop in the field, which was set at day 141. The simulation period ended at day 273, a reasonable estimate for the date when plants are stopped in practice. Initial input dry biomass at Mochov farm (Suchdol) was set to 2.25 (2.88), 1.71 (2.5) and 0.01 (0.78) grams for leaves, stem and generative organs, respectively. No Label