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Ponti, L.; Gutierrez, A.P.; Ruti, P.M.; Dell’Aquila, A. |
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Title |
Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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111 |
Issue |
15 |
Pages |
5598-5603 |
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Keywords |
Animals; *Biodiversity; *Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends; Crops, Agricultural/*economics/physiology; Geography; Host-Parasite Interactions; Mediterranean Region; Models, Biological; Models, Economic; Olea/*parasitology/*physiology; Tephritidae/*physiology; Olea europaea; desertification; ecological impacts; economic impacts; species interactions |
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Abstract  |
The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests. |
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0027-8424 1091-6490 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4539 |
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Köchy, M.; Banse, M. |
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Kickoff Workshop, Session on Final Products |
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Report |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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1 |
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M-H3.1.1 |
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The major final products will be a congress aimed at political stakeholders in May 2015 in Brussels with a provisional date of 6./7. May 2015, a scientific conference at the end of January 2015, and a book/special issue summarizing the research results. Most research results should be available by the end of November for the first draft of the book/special issue. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2249 |
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Tantari, A. |
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Title |
The role of CAP direct payment in the support and stabilisation of farm income: empirical evidences from a constant sample of Italian farms |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-66 |
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The main objective of CAP Direct payments (DP) has been to increase and stabilise farm income together with a large number of additional goals (Gardner, 1991). Despite its importance, there are limited empirical evidences on farm income variability over time at farm level apart Vrolijk and Poppe (2008) and Vrolijk, de Bont, van der Veen, and Poppe (2009). The analysis focuses of the following research questions:• What is the amount of the support provided by DP? How the income of Italian farms will be affected by reductions of DP levels?• What is the extent of farm income variability over time? Is it the same in all types of farms?• Where is this variability coming from?• Do CAP direct payments reduce farm income variability? How do DP affect it? Are DP targeted to stabilise the income of those farms facing larger income variability? The analysis has been developed on the individual farms belonging to the whole Italian sample of the EU FADN farms during all years of the decade 2003-2012. The variability of farm income (FI) is assessed by calculating variance and Coefficient of Variation (CV) over the 10 year period for each farm for each relevant income component. The role of DP on income stabilisation is assessed by means of variance decomposition by income sources (Burt and Finley, 1968; El Benni and Finger, 2013; Mishra and El-Osta, 2001).The presence of DP allows for a reduction of the variability of farm income: the variability of FI when DP are not accounted for is higher than that of the whole FI. Finally, DP seem to be not targeted to those farms facing the highest level of market income variability. These results support the hypothesis that there is a potentially large room for better design the DP policy to reduce income variability. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2181 |
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Author |
Cassardo, C.; Andreoli, V. |
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Title |
On the Representativeness of UTOPIA Land Surface Model for Creating a Database of Surface Layer, Vegetation and Soil Variables in Piedmont Vineyards, Italy |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Applied Sciences-Basel |
Abbreviated Journal |
Applied Sciences-Basel |
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9 |
Issue |
18 |
Pages |
3880 |
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Keywords |
land-surface; UTOPIA; NOAH; GLDAS; micrometeorology; exchanges; processes; vineyards; cabernet-sauvignon; climate-change; wine color; temperature; parameterization; simulations; circulation; balances; moisture; sunlight |
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The main aim of the paper is to show how, and how many, simulations carried out using the Land Surface Model UTOPIA (University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere) are representative of the micro-meteorological conditions and exchange processes at the atmosphere/biosphere interface, with a particular focus on heat and hydrologic transfers, over an area of the Piemonte (Piedmont) region, NW Italy, which is characterized by the presence of many vineyards. Another equally important aim is to understand how much the quality of the simulation outputs was influenced by the input data, whose measurements are often unavailable for long periods over country areas at an hourly basis. Three types of forcing data were used: observations from an experimental campaign carried out during the 2008, 2009, and 2010 vegetative seasons in three vineyards, and values extracted from the freely available Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS, versions 2.0 and 2.1). Since GLDAS also contains the outputs of the simulations performed using the Land Surface Model NOAH, an additional intercomparison between the two models, UTOPIA and NOAH, both driven by the same GLDAS datasets, was performed. The intercomparisons were performed on the following micro-meteorological variables: net radiation, sensible and latent turbulent heat fluxes, and temperature and humidity of soil. The results of this study indicate that the methodology of employing land surface models driven by a gridded database to evaluate variables of micro-meteorological and agronomic interest in the absence of observations is suitable and gives satisfactory results, with uncertainties comparable to measurement errors, thus, allowing us to also evaluate some time trends. The comparison between GLDAS2.0 and GLDAS2.1 indicates that the latter generally produces simulation outputs more similar to the observations than the former, using both UTOPIA and NOAH models. |
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2020-02-14 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5228 |
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Vosough Ahmadi, B.; Shrestha, S.; Thomson, S.G.; Barnes, A.P.; Stott, A.W. |
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Title |
Impacts of greening measures and flat rate regional payments of the Common Agricultural Policy on Scottish beef and sheep farms |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
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153 |
Issue |
04 |
Pages |
676-688 |
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CAP reform; models; level; water; Agriculture |
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The latest Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms could bring substantial changes to Scottish farming communities. Two major components of this reform package, an introduction of environmental measures into the Pillar 1 payments and a move away from historical farm payments towards regionalized area payments, would have a significant effect on altering existing support structures for Scottish farmers, as it would for similar farm types elsewhere in Europe where historic payments are used. An optimizing farm-level model was developed to explore how Scottish beef and sheep farms might be affected by the greening and flat rate payments under the current CAP reforms. Nine different types of beef and sheep farms were identified and detailed biophysical and financial farm-level data for these farm types were used to parameterize the model. Results showed that the greening measures of the CAP did not have much impact on net margins of most of the beef and sheep farm businesses, except for ‘Beef Finisher’ farm types where the net margins decreased by 3%. However, all farm types were better off adopting the greening measures than not qualifying for the greening payments through non-compliance with the measures. The move to regionalized farm payments increased the negative financial impact of greening on most of the farms but it was still substantially lower than the financial sacrifice of not adopting greening measures. Results of maximizing farm net margin, under a hypothetical assumption of excluding farm payments, showed that in most of the mixed (sheep and cattle) and beef suckler cattle farms the optimum stock numbers predicted by the model were lower than actual figures on farm. When the regionalized support payments were allocated to each farm, the proportion of the mixed farms that would increase their stock numbers increased whereas this proportion decreased for beef suckler farms and no impact was predicted in sheep farms. Also under the regionalized support payments, improvements in profitability were found in mixed farms and sheep farms. Some of the specialized beef suckler farms also returned a profit when CAP support was added. |
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0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4654 |
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