Abstract: Agricultural land use in Northern Germany is characterized by a gradient of decreasing precipitation from west to east. Climate change is expected to increase temperature and decrease summer precipitation. In the context of a nationally funded project we aim to analyze climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural land use. The research is focused in 4 study regions from Eastern to Western Germany. The presented modelling approach analyses agricultural land use under climate change and for three policy scenarios (business as usual, biodiversity and climate protection). The biodiversity and climate protection scenarios each reserve area for specific scenario objectives: 10% for specific biodiversity measures and 20% for N-fixing legumes in case of the climate protection scenario. All scenarios are executed for three time steps representing year 2010, 2020 and 2030 with a constant yield increase, extrapolated from past observations. Building on IACS data for a farm typology and expert assessments of current and future land use options, we applied a linear programming farm model. Prices are exogenous and derived from CAPRI model runs for 2020 and 2030. First preliminary results show strong impacts of price assumptions and yield assessments. This results in 2020 in lower gross margins for a number of crops and finally to higher set aside areas in eastern Germany. For 2030 input–output price relations are more favourable for farmers and thus lead to lower set aside areas. No Label

Abstract: Adaption to climate change in the context of agriculture involves collaborative planning and development of practices which is deemed more sustainable than preceeding practices. It is however not given that sustainable development will be the outcome of such efforts. In some cases, even motivated participants experience that despite good intentions, high levels of knowledge, feasible models, appropriate technologies and many other factors present, they still might not succeed bringing about the desired change. The reasons for this can not easily be reduced to just one factor, but is very likely to be the outcome of highly complex interactions between social, technological, institutional, or even personal factors. The report documents attempts to understand the complexities of climate change adaption in a Danish water catchment, Lundgaards Bæk, which is dominated by dairy farming. As part of the EU projects AQUARIUS and MACSUR, a local action group was formed which was composed of local farmers, local agricultural advisors, advisors from the national agricultural advisory service, environmental planners from the local municipality, and environmental planners from the national environmental agency in Denmark. The action group was supposed to develop specific measures, which were supposed to lead to an overall reduction in nitrogen loading of the neighboring fjord, Mariager Fjord. The report addresses three related research themes: (1) how do the stakeholders in question interact during the process of climate change adaption, (2) when do the stakeholders encounter opportunities and barriers during the process, and finally (3) does the adaption process in question lead to the desired outcomes? The empirical background of the report is a detailed process study of dynamics within a group of stakeholders, including farmers and extension officers, who were supposed to develop sustainable management practices in order to reduce nitrogen leaching to the Mariager Fjord. The study is based on the assumption that in order for research and policy to contribute to sustainable practices, deeper understanding of complex dynamics within stakeholder partnerships is needed. Based on a theoretical framework derived from social learning, adaptive co-management and Andrew Pickering’s notion of ‘the mangle’, different in-depth explanations to why sustainable development did not occur, are offered. One explanation concerns social-psychological dynamics of knowledge. Another explanation concerns the mechanisms by which social and material forces affect outcomes of the adaption process. The report concludes by exploring the study’s relevance in relation to policy, research and practice, followed by suggestions for further in-depth case studies and experimentation in practice. No Label

Abstract: Adaptation can reduce climate change risks to crop production and is best analyzed at local scales considering regional specificities. Uncertainty inherent in modelling adaptation options is due to climate projections, downscaling and imperfections of crop models. The challenge of making effective adaptation decisions requires powerful approaches for exploiting the potential of genotype by environment by management interactions, and for generating projections informed with uncertainty.Here we present a methodology that constructs impact response surfaces (IRSs) from an ensemble of crop models and applies these to explore the adaptation potential of rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain) in a water-limited environment. The simulation experiment includes: 1) a systematic sensitivity analysis to changes to baseline temperature and precipitation (1981-2010) through a delta change approach that accounts for seasonal differences, 2) three levels of CO2 representing present-day and future conditions until 2050 (A1B scenario), and 3) soil profiles representative for the variable conditions around Lleida. The adaptation simulations represent adjusted management practices about sowing, supplementary irrigation, and the thermal and vernalisation requirements of cultivars used.A pre-selection of the adaptation options was done iteratively, in ranges supported by literature review of crop adaptation in the Mediterranean (e.g. shifts from current sowing date between -30 and +45 days). This procedure allowed to identify a limited number of effective and feasible adaptations to be evaluated combining IRSs and probabilistic projections of climate change. No Label