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	Author	Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K.; Thomson, A.
	Title	Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	Earth’s Future	Abbreviated Journal	Earth’s Future
	Volume	2	Issue		Pages	83-98
	Keywords	integrated assessment; climate impacts; emissions mitigation; representative concentration pathway; land-use; carbon; stabilization; cmip5
	Abstract	This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6W/m(2) in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	2328-4277	ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	CropM, ft_macsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4531
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	Author	Shrestha, S.; Hennessy, T.; Abdalla, M.; Forristal, D.; Jones, M.J.
	Title	Determining short term responses of Irish dairy farms under climate change			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	German Journal of Agricultural Economics	Abbreviated Journal	German Journal of Agricultural Economics
	Volume	63	Issue	3	Pages	143-155
	Keywords
	Abstract	This study aimed to determine short term farm responses of Irish dairy farms under climate change. The Irish National Farm Survey data and Irish weather data were the main datasets used in this study. A set of simulation models were used to determine grass yields and field time under a baseline scenario and a future climate scenario. An optimising farm level model which maximises farm net income under limiting farm resources was then run under these scenarios. Changes in farm net incomes under the climate change scenario compared to the baseline scenario were taken as a measure to determine the effect of climate change on farms. Any changes in farm activities under the climate run compared to the baseline run were considered as farm’s responses to maximise farm profits. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in yields of grass (49% to 56%) in all regions. The impact of climate change on farms was different based on the regions. Dairy farms in the Border, Midlands and South East regions suffered whereas dairy farms in other regions generally fared better under the climate change scenario. For a majority of farms, a substitution of concentrate feed with grass based feeds and increasing stocking rate were identified as the most common farm responses. However, farms replaced concentrate feed at varying degree. Dairy farms in the Mid East showed a move towards beef production system where medium dairy farms in the South East regions shifted entire tillage land to grass land. Farms in the South East region also kept animals on grass longer under the climate change scenario compared to the baseline scenario.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	TradeM			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4672
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	Author	Banse, M.; Brouwer, F.; Palatnik, R.R.; Sinabell, F.
	Title	The Economics of European Agriculture under Conditions of Climate Change (Editorial)			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	German Journal of Agricultural Economics	Abbreviated Journal	German Journal of Agricultural Economics
	Volume	63	Issue	3	Pages	131-132
	Keywords
	Abstract	This Special Issue on “The Economics of European Agriculture under Conditions of Climate Change” brings together a selection of papers that contribute to the understanding of recent developments related to agriculture and climate change in four European coun- tries. The focus of the Special Issue is on quantitative modeling and empirical analyses. The papers presented here not only cover the heterogeneity of agriculture in Europe with case studies from the Mediterranean (Italy), central (Austria) and north-western Europe (Ireland and Scotland) but also give insights into the diversity of quantitative modeling approaches in agriculture.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium	Editorial material
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	TradeM, ft_macsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4763
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	Author	Höhn, J.; Rötter, R.P.
	Title	Impact of global warming on European cereal production			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources	Abbreviated Journal	CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources
	Volume	9	Issue	022	Pages	1-15
	Keywords	Climate change; Food security; Uncertainty; Wheat; Maize; Barley
	Abstract	This review examines relevant impact assessments identiﬁed by a literature search from 1991to date. A bibliographic search was applied to the CAB Abstracts database with a given searchstring. Resultant papers were checked for relevance, based on expert judgment. This yielded 91 papers, which were subjected to further analysis. Firstly, publication intensity over time and distribution by geographic location and cereal crop were examined. Next, for a given crop, the assessments and their outcomes were grouped by type and number of the change variables considered – that is, effects of climate change only, elevated CO 2 and technological progress(improved breeds, management). Finally, separately for individual countries/subregions and Europe as a whole, we examined whether and to what extent study results have changed over time, for example become more positive/negative. Based on our sample, we found that publication intensity increased exponentially during thelast 4 years, the majority of studies are Europe-wide, but some concentrated on a few countries(Italy, Spain and UK), whereby studies on wheat are clearly most popular. Taking the factor of technological progress into account has an overruling inﬂuence on results. Finally, over time, projected yield impacts have become more negative. This is in line with ﬁnding from global analyses, as reﬂected by the most recent comparison of agricultural impact chapters, of the 4thand 5th Assessment Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II.In the future, there is particular need to consider impacts under various incremental and transformational adaptation measures in more depth (e.g. their interconnections across scales)and with more breadth (e.g. anticipated new breeds). Follow-up reviews should also examine how projected impacts are changing with the new climate scenario data sets (CMIP5) and with improved impact models and assessment approaches.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	1749-8848	ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	CropM, ft_macsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4524
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	Author	Barnes, A.; Shrestha, S.; Thomson, S.; Toma, L.; Mathews, K.; Sutherland, L.A.
	Title	Comparing visions for CAP reforms post 2015: Farmer intentions and farm bio-economic modelling			Type	Report
	Year	2014	Publication	FACCE MACSUR Reports	Abbreviated Journal
	Volume	3	Issue		Pages	Sp3-2
	Keywords
	Abstract	This paper illustrates the impacts of two of the potential CAP reform post 2015 scenarios using an optimising farm level model and compares results with farmers’ perception about the policy changes, captured in a farmer intentions survey. The model results suggest that beef farms suffer a loss in farm net margins under fully decoupled (up to -21%) as well as under partially decoupled scenario (up to -19%) compared to current historical single farm payments. The model also shows that farm respond by reducing the number of beef animals on farm by up to 5%. However, under a partial decoupled scenario, beef farms increase calf numbers by 15% to benefit from coupled calf payment. A survey of 1,400 beef producers with respect to their intentions toward 2020 was conducted in the Summer of 2013. A set of hypothetical payment scenarios was used to test self-reported response to a number of scenarios related to expanding and extensifying. These were compared with the modelling results and found a range of responses which could, we argue, be used for future calibration and ‘sense-checking’ of results within future modelling strategies. No Label
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language		Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes				Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	2219
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