| |
Records |
Links |
|
Author |
Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S. |
|
| |
Title |
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
|
| |
Volume |
72 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
287-303 |
|
| |
Keywords |
uncertainty; scaling; integrated assessment; risk assessment; adaptation; crop models; agricultural land-use; change adaptation strategies; farming systems simulation; agri-environmental systems; enrichment face experiment; high-temperature stress; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; atmospheric co2; spring wheat |
|
| |
Abstract  |
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
1364-8152 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4521 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Hamidov, A.; Helming, K.; Bellocchi, G.; Bojar, W.; Dalgaard, T.; Ghaley, B.B.; Hoffmann, C.; Holman, I.; Holzkämper, A.; Krzeminska, D.; Kværnø, S.H.; Lehtonen, H.; Niedrist, G.; Øygarden, L.; Reidsma, P.; Roggero, P.P.; Rusu, T.; Santos, C.; Seddaiu, G.; Skarbøvik, E.; Ventrella, D.; Żarski, J.; Schönhart, M. |
|
| |
Title |
Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Land Degradation & Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Land Degradation & Development |
|
| |
Volume |
29 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
2378-2389 |
|
| |
Keywords |
agricultural adaptation; DPSIR; regional case-studies; soil degradation; Sustainable Development Goals; Agricultural Practices; Ecosystem Services; Land Management; Netherlands; Farm; Environment; Challenges; Catchments; Framework; Nitrogen |
|
| |
Abstract |
Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions. |
|
| |
Address |
2018-10-16 |
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
1085-3278 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
XC, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5210 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Conradt, T.; Gornott, C.; Wechsung, F. |
|
| |
Title |
Extending and improving regionalized winter wheat and silage maize yield regression models for Germany: Enhancing the predictive skill by panel definition through cluster analysis |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
|
| |
Volume |
216 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
68-81 |
|
| |
Keywords |
cluster analysis; crop yield estimation; germany; multivariate regression; silage maize; winter wheat; climate-change; canadian prairies; crop yield; temperature; responses; environments; variability; cultivar; china |
|
| |
Abstract |
Regional agricultural yield assessments allowing for weather effect quantifications are a valuable basis for deriving scenarios of climate change effects and developing adaptation strategies. Assessing weather effects by statistical methods is a classical approach, but for obtaining robust results many details deserve attention and require individual decisions as is demonstrated in this paper. We evaluated regression models for annual yield changes of winter wheat and silage maize in more than 300 German counties and revised them to increase their predictive power. A major effort of this study was, however, aggregating separately estimated time series models (STSM) into panel data models (PDM) based on cluster analyses. The cluster analyses were based on the per-county estimates of STSM parameters. The original STSM formulations (adopted from a parallel study) contained also the non-meteorological input variables acreage and fertilizer price. The models were revised to use only weather variables as estimation basis. These consisted of time aggregates of radiation, precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration. Altering the input variables generally increased the predictive power of the models as did their clustering into PDM. For each crop, five alternative clusterings were produced by three different methods, and similarities between their spatial structures seem to confirm the existence of objective clusters about common model parameters. Observed smooth transitions of STSM parameter values in space suggest, however, spatial autocorrelation effects that could also be modeled explicitly. Both clustering and autocorrelation approaches can effectively reduce the noise in parameter estimation through targeted aggregation of input data. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4709 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Bodirsky, B.L.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.P.; Rolinski, S.; Weindl, I.; Schmitz, C.; Müller, C.; Bonsch, M.; Humpenöder, F.; Biewald, A.; Stevanovic, M. |
|
| |
Title |
Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Communications |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Comm. |
|
| |
Volume |
5 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
3858 |
|
| |
Keywords |
Animals; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism/*supply & distribution; Environmental Pollution/*prevention & control; *Food Supply; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen Fixation; *Population Growth; Reactive Nitrogen Species/*supply & distribution |
|
| |
Abstract |
Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
2041-1723 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4513 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
|
Author |
Frederiks, T.M.; Christopher, J.T.; Sutherland, M.W.; Borrell, A.K. |
|
| |
Title |
Post-head-emergence frost in wheat and barley: defining the problem, assessing the damage, and identifying resistance |
Type |
Journal Article |
| |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
|
| |
Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3487-3498 |
|
| |
Keywords |
Adaptation, Physiological; Environment; *Freezing; Hordeum/*physiology; Stress, Physiological; Triticum/*physiology; Barley; frost; reproductive frost; spring radiant frost; wheat |
|
| |
Abstract |
Radiant frost is a significant production constraint to wheat (Triticum aestivum) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), particularly in regions where spring-habit cereals are grown through winter, maturing in spring. However, damage to winter-habit cereals in reproductive stages is also reported. Crops are particularly susceptible to frost once awns or spikes emerge from the protection of the flag leaf sheath. Post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) is a problem distinct from other cold-mediated production constraints. To date, useful increased PHEF resistance in cereals has not been identified. Given the renewed interest in reproductive frost damage in cereals, it is timely to review the problem. Here we update the extent and impacts of PHEF and document current management options to combat this challenge. We clarify terminology useful for discussing PHEF in relation to chilling and other freezing stresses. We discuss problems characterizing radiant frost, the environmental conditions leading to PHEF damage, and the effects of frost at different growth stages. PHEF resistant cultivars would be highly desirable, to both reduce the incidence of direct frost damage and to allow the timing of crop maturity to be managed to maximize yield potential. A framework of potential adaptation mechanisms is outlined. Clarification of these critical issues will sharpen research focus, improving opportunities to identify genetic sources for improved PHEF resistance. |
|
| |
Address |
|
|
| |
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
| |
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
| |
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
| |
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
| |
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
| |
ISSN |
0022-0957 1460-2431 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Review |
|
| |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
| |
Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
|
| |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4558 |
|
| Permanent link to this record |
