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Author |
Kässi, P.; Känkänen, H.; Niskanen, O.; Lehtonen, H.; Höglind, M. |
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Title |
Farm level approach to manage grass yield variation under climate change in Finland and north-western Russia |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Biosystems Engineering |
Abbreviated Journal |
Biosystems Engineering |
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Volume |
140 |
Issue |
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Pages |
11-22 |
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Keywords |
silage grass; risk management; dairy farms; buffer storage; agricultural economics; grassland modelling; dairy-cows; impact; security; timothy; harvest; future; growth; norway; europe; time |
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Abstract  |
Cattle feeding in Northern Europe is based on grass silage, but grass growth is highly dependent on weather conditions. If ensuring sufficient silage availability in every situation is prioritised, the lowest expected yield level determines the cultivated area in farmers’ decision-making. One way to manage the variation in grass yield is to increase grass production and silage storage capacity so that they exceed the annual consumption at the farm. The cost of risk management in the current and the projected future climate was calculated taking into account grassland yield and yield variability for three study areas under current and mid-21st century climate conditions. The dataset on simulated future grass yields used as input for the risk management calculations were taken from a previously published simulation study. Strategies investigated included using up to 60% more silage grass area than needed in a year with average grass yields, and storing silage for up to 6 months more than consumed in a year (buffer storage). According to the results, utilising an excess silage grass area of 20% and a silage buffer storage capacity of 6 months were the most economic ways of managing drought risk in both the baseline climate and the projected climate of 2046-2065. It was found that the silage yield risk due to drought is likely to decrease in all studied locations, but the drought risk and costs implied still remain significant. (C) 2015 IAgrE. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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1537-5110 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4671 |
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Author |
Lehtonen, H.S.; Liu, X.; Purola, T.; Rötter, R.; Palosuo, T. |
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Title |
Farm level dynamic economic modelling of crop rotation with adaptation practices |
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Report |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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Volume |
3 |
Issue |
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Pages |
Sp3-9 |
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Abstract |
Agriculture is facing increasing challenges under volatile commodity markets, on-going climate change with more frequent extreme weather events and tightened environmental constraints. Crop rotation is considered essential and may even gain more importance for sustainable farming in the context of climate change challenges while monocropping is expected to become increasingly problematic. This is, among others, because of increasing plant protection challenges due to warmer climate which is expected to result in severe droughts, heavy rainfall and waterlogging in northern latitudes more frequently. Such changes require improved soil structure and water retention, also aided by crop rotations, to avoid yield losses. Our objective is to build and apply a dynamic optimization model of farm level crop rotation on many field parcels over 30-40 years. The model takes into account various adaptation management methods such as fungicide treatment, soil improvements such as liming, and nitrogen fertilization, simultaneously with dynamic crop rotation choices. However, these management options come along with costs. Using the model, outcomes of crop growth simulation modeling can be included into economic analysis. Simulated new cultivars, suited for a longer growing season, can be defined as alternatives to current cultivars, both having specific nutrient and other input requirements such as water, labor or pesticides. The model is used in evaluating the value of future cultivars and other management practices in climate and socio-economic scenarios. The first results show that expected market prices have major impacts on the management choices, the resulting yield levels, production and income over time. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2226 |
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Author |
Lehtonen, H.S.; Liu, X.; Purola, T.; Rötter, R.; Palosuo, T. |
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Title |
Farm level dynamic economic modelling of crop rotation with adaptation practices |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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Abstract |
Agriculture is facing increasing challenges under volatile commodity markets, on-going climate change with more frequent extreme weather events and tightened environmental constraints. Crop rotation is considered essential and may even gain more importance for sustainable farming in the context of climate change challenges while monocropping is expected to become increasingly problematic. This is, among others, because of increasing plant protection challenges due to warmer climate which is expected to result in severe droughts, heavy rainfall and waterlogging in northern latitudes more frequently. Such changes require improved soil structure and water retention, also aided by crop rotations, to avoid yield losses. Our objective is to build and apply a dynamic optimization model of farm level crop rotation on many field parcels over 30-40 years. The model takes into account various adaptation management methods such as fungicide treatment, soil improvements such as liming, and nitrogen fertilization, simultaneously with dynamic crop rotation choices. However, these management options come along with costs. Using the model, outcomes of crop growth simulation modeling can be included into economic analysis. Simulated new cultivars, suited for a longer growing season, can be defined as alternatives to current cultivars, both having specific nutrient and other input requirements such as water, labor or pesticides. The model is used in evaluating the value of future cultivars and other management practices in climate and socio-economic scenarios. The first results show that expected market prices have major impacts on the management choices, the resulting yield levels, production and income over time. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5081 |
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Author |
Lehtonen, H. |
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Title |
Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Food Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Food Science |
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Volume |
24 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
219-234 |
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Keywords |
agricultural sector modelling; economic adjustment; global prices; climate change; finnish agriculture; crop production; land-use; challenge; ensembles; Finland; Europe; policy |
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Abstract |
Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production. |
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2016-07-22 |
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English |
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Series Issue |
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ISSN |
1459-6067 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4750 |
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Author |
Liu, X.; Lehtonen, H.; Purola, T.; Pavlova, Y.; Rötter, R.; Palosuo, T. |
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Title |
Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
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Volume |
144 |
Issue |
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Pages |
65-76 |
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Keywords |
Farm management; Dynamic optimization; Crop rotation; Risk aversion; Climate change; Prices; climate-change; sequester carbon; changing climate; food security; challenge; Finland; ensembles; systems; europe; tool |
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Abstract |
Agricultural practice is facing multiple challenges under volatile commodity markets, inevitable climate change, mounting pest pressure and various other environment-related constraints. The objective of this research is to present a dynamic optimization model of crop rotations and farm management and show its suitability for economic analysis over a 30 year time period. In this model, we include management practices such as fertilization, fungicide treatment and liming, and apply it in a region in Southwestern Finland. Results show that (i) growing pest pressure favours the cultivation of wheat-oats and wheat-oilseeds combinations, while (ii) market prices largely determine the crops in the rotation plan and the specific management practices adopted. The flexibility of our model can also be utilized in evaluating the value of other management options such as new cultivars under different projections of future climate and market conditions. |
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English |
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ISSN |
0308521x |
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Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4719 |
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