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	Author	Montesino-San Martín, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R.
	Title	Can crop-climate models be accurate and precise? A case study for wheat production in Denmark			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2015	Publication	Agricultural and Forest Meteorology	Abbreviated Journal	Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
	Volume	202	Issue		Pages	51-60
	Keywords	Uncertainty; Model intercomparison; Bayesian approach; Climate change; Wheat; Denmark; uncertainty analysis; simulation-models; bayesian-approach; change; impact; yields; variability; projections; scale; calibration; framework
	Abstract	Crop models, used to make projections of climate change impacts, differ greatly in structural detail. Complexity of model structure has generic effects on uncertainty and error propagation in climate change impact assessments. We applied Bayesian calibration to three distinctly different empirical and mechanistic wheat models to assess how differences in the extent of process understanding in models affects uncertainties in projected impact. Predictive power of the models was tested via both accuracy (bias) and precision (or tightness of grouping) of yield projections for extrapolated weather conditions. Yields predicted by the mechanistic model were generally more accurate than the empirical models for extrapolated conditions. This trend does not hold for all extrapolations; mechanistic and empirical models responded differently due to their sensitivities to distinct weather features. However, higher accuracy comes at the cost of precision of the mechanistic model to embrace all observations within given boundaries. The approaches showed complementarity in sensitivity to weather variables and in accuracy for different extrapolation domains. Their differences in model precision and accuracy make them suitable for generic model ensembles for near-term agricultural impact assessments of climate change.
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	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	0168-1923	ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	CropM, ftnotmacsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4572
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