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	Author	Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C.
	Title	Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	Technological Forecasting and Social Change	Abbreviated Journal	Technological Forecasting and Social Change
	Volume	81	Issue		Pages	236-249
	Keywords	Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration
	Abstract	► Endogenous technological change in an economic land use model ► Estimation of yield elasticity with respect to investments in technological change ► Projections of future agricultural productivity rates ► Validation with observed data and historic trends ► Trade-off between required technological change and forest protection objectives Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 0.29 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995–2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change.
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	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	0040-1625	ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	CropM			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4518
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