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	Author	Calanca, P.; Semenov, M.A.
	Title	Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2013	Publication	Theoretical and Applied Climatology	Abbreviated Journal	Theor. Appl. Climatol.
	Volume	113	Issue	3-4	Pages	445-455
	Keywords	stochastic weather generators; regional climate; lars-wg; daily; precipitation; models; simulation; europe; temperature; variability; heatwaves
	Abstract	We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.
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	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	0177-798x 1434-4483	ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	CropM, ftnotmacsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4484
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