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Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., et al. (2017). Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century. Glob. Environ. Change, 42, 297–315.
Abstract: Highlights • The SSP5 scenarios mark the upper end of the scenario literature in fossil fuel use, food demand, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. • The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). • An investigation of mitigation policies in SSP5 confirms high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. • In SSP5, ambitious climate targets require land based carbon management options such as avoided deforestation and bioenergy production with CCS. • The SSP5 scenarios provide useful reference points for future climate change, impact, adaption, mitigation and sustainable development analysis. Abstract This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.
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Tomozeiu, R., Pasqui, M., & Quaresima, S. (2017). Future changes of air temperature over Italian agricultural areas: a statistical downscaling technique applied to 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 periods. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, in press.
Abstract: Climate change scenarios of seasonal minimum and maximum temperature over different Italian agricultural areas, during the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 against 1961–1990, are assessed. The areas are those selected in the framework of the Agroscenari project and are represented by: Padano–Veneta plain, Marche, Beneventano, Destra Sele, Oristano, Puglia and Sicilia, all areas of prominent agricultural vocation with excellence productions. A statistical downscaling technique applied to ENSEMBLES global climate simulations, emission scenario A1B, is used to achieve this objective. The statistical scheme consists of a multivariate regression based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. The scheme is constructed using large-scale fields derived from ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal mean minimum, maximum temperature derived from national observed daily gridded data that cover 1959–2008 period. Once the most skillful model has been selected for each season and variable, this is then applied to GCMs of ENSEMBLES runs. The statistical downscaling method developed reveals good skill over the case studies of the present work, underlying the possibility to apply the scheme over whole Italian peninsula. In addition, the results emphasize that the temperature at 850 hPa is the best predictor for surface air temperature. The future projections show that an increase could be expected to occur under A1B scenario conditions in all seasons, both in minimum and maximum temperatures. The projected increases are about 2 °C during 2021–2050 and between 2.5 and 4.5 °C during 2071–2100, respect to 1961–1990. The spatial distribution of warming is projected to be quite uniform over the territory to the end of the century, while some spatial differences are noted over 2021–2050 period. For example, the increase in minimum temperature is projected to be slightly higher in areas from northern and central part than those situated in the southern part of Italian peninsula, during 2021–2050 period. The peak of changes is projected to appear during summer season, for both minimum and maximum temperature. The probability density function tends to shift to warmer values during both periods, with increases more intense during summer and to the end of the century, when the lower tail is projected to shift up to 3 °C and the upper tail up to 6 °C. All these projected changes have important impacts on viticulture, intensive fruit and tomatoes, some of the main agricultural systems analyzed in the Agroscenari project.
Area: CropM
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Biewald, A., Sinabell, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Zimmermann, A., & Lehtonen, H. (2017). Global Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Agricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both frameworks are combined.
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Siebert, S., Webber, H., Zhao, G., Ewert, F., Siebert, S., Webber, H., et al. (2017). Heat stress is overestimated in climate impact studies for irrigated agriculture. Environ. Res. Lett., 12(5), 054023.
Abstract: Climate change will increase the number and severity of heat waves, and is expected to negatively affect crop yields. Here we show for wheat and maize across Europe that heat stress is considerably reduced by irrigation due to surface cooling for both current and projected future climate. We demonstrate that crop heat stress impact assessments should be based on canopy temperature because simulations with air temperatures measured at standard weather stations cannot reproduce differences in crop heat stress between irrigated and rainfed conditions. Crop heat stress was overestimated on irrigated land when air temperature was used with errors becoming larger with projected climate change. Corresponding errors in mean crop yield calculated across Europe for baseline climate 1984-2013 of 0.2 Mg yr(-1) (2%) and 0.6 Mg yr(-1) (5%) for irrigated winter wheat and irrigated grain maize, respectively, would increase to up to 1.5 Mg yr (1) (16%) for irrigated winter wheat and 4.1 Mg yr (1) (39%) for irrigated grain maize, depending on the climate change projection/GCM combination considered. We conclude that climate change impact assessments for crop heat stress need to account explicitly for the impact of irrigation.
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Hoffmann, M. P., Haakana, M., Asseng, S., Höhn, J. G., Palosuo, T., Ruiz-Ramos, M., et al. (2017). How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites. Agric. Syst., , in press.
Abstract: Highlights • The larger simulated attainable yield for a specific crop season, the larger the yield gap. • Average size of the yield gap is not affected by the inter-annual variability of attainable yield. • Technology levels (resource input and accessibility) determine average yield gap. • To reduce yield gaps in rainfed environments, farmers need to improve season-specific crop management. Abstract Provision of food security in the face of increasing global food demand requires narrowing of the gap between actual farmer’s yield and maximum attainable yield. So far, assessments of yield gaps have focused on average yield over 5–10 years, but yield gaps can vary substantially between crop seasons. In this study we hypothesized that climate-induced inter-annual yield variability and associated risk is a major barrier for farmers to invest, i.e. increase inputs to narrow the yield gap. We evaluated the importance of inter-annual attainable yield variability for the magnitude of the yield gap by utilizing data for wheat and maize at ten sites representing some major food production systems and a large range of climate and soil conditions across the world. Yield gaps were derived from the difference of simulated attainable yields and regional recorded farmer yields for 1981 to 2010. The size of the yield gap did not correlate with the amplitude of attainable yield variability at a site, but was rather associated with the level of available resources such as labor, fertilizer and plant protection inputs. For the sites in Africa, recorded yield reached only 20% of the attainable yield, while for European, Asian and North American sites it was 56–84%. Most sites showed that the higher the attainable yield of a specific season the larger was the yield gap. This significant relationship indicated that farmers were not able to take advantage of favorable seasonal weather conditions. To reduce yield gaps in the different environments, reliable seasonal weather forecasts would be required to allow farmers to manage each seasonal potential, i.e. overcoming season-specific yield limitations.
Area: CropM
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