Abstract: The objective of this work was to evaluate the suitability of carbohydrates and amino compounds in soil and soil organic matter (SOM) fractions to depict the management-induced changes in soil over short-term course. Soil samples were collected from two experimental fields managed according to organic farming regulations and a sequential fractionation procedure was applied to separate the light fraction (LF), particulate organic matter (POM), and mobile humic acid (MHA). Contents of carbohydrates and amino compounds were determined in soil and correspondent SOM fractions. Over a 2-year course, carbohydrate contents decreased in the LF fraction while it increased noticeably in the POM and slightly in the MHA fractions leading into questioning whether decomposing materials get incorporated into older fractions. Amino N content constituted up to 30% of total soil N, with a major contribution of the humic fraction (MHA). Although the LF, POM, and MHA fractions showed the greatest amino N content after the compost-legumes combinations, the carbohydrate and amino N contents in the POM and MHA fractions of the unamended soil increased as large as the corresponding fertilized plots, underlining that conservative soil management results in accumulation of labile forms of soil C and N that consequently might build up soil fertility. The changes after different treatments suggest the suitability of carbohydrates and amino compounds as short-term indicators for soil management.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Abstract: The effects of soil variability on regional crop yield under projected climate change are largely unknown. In Southeastern Norway, increased temperature and precipitation are projected for the mid-21st century. Crop simulation models in combination with scaling techniques can be used to determine the regional pattern of crop yield. In the present paper, the CSM-CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model was applied to simulate regional spring wheat yield for Akershus and Østfold counties in Southeastern Norway. Prior to the simulations, parameters in the CSM-CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model were calibrated for the spring wheat cvars Zebra, Demonstrant and Bjarne, using cultivar trial data from Southeastern Norway and site-specific weather and soil information. Weather input data for regional yield simulations represented the climate in 1961–1990 and projections of the climate in 2046–2065. The latter were based on four Global Climate Models and greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Data on regional soil particle size distribution, water-holding characteristics and organic matter data were obtained from a database. To determine the simulated grain yield sensitivity to soil input, the number of soil profiles used to describe the soilscape in the region varied from 76 to 16, 5 and 1. The soils in the different descriptions were selected by arranging them into groups according to similarities in physical characteristics and taking the soil in each group occupying the largest area in the region to represent other soils in that group. The simulated grain yields were higher under all four projected future climate scenarios than the corresponding average yields in the baseline conditions. On average across the region, there were mostly non-significant differences in grain yield between the soil extrapolations for all cultivars and climate projections. However, for sub-regions grain yield varied by up to 20% between soil extrapolations. These results indicate how projected climate change could affect spring wheat yield given the assumed simulated conditions for a region with similar climate and soil conditions to many other cereal production regions in Northern Europe. The results also provide useful information about how soil input data could be handled in regional crop yield determinations under these conditions.