Abstract: Background. Ecosystem services (ES) generated within agricultural landscapes, including field boundaries, are vital for the sustainable supply of food and fibre. However, the value of ES in agriculture has not been quantified experimentally and then extrapolated globally. Methods. We quantified the economic value of two key but contrasting ES (biological control of pests and nitrogen mineralisation) provided by non-traded non-crop species in ten organic and ten conventional arable fields in New Zealand using field experiments. The arable crops grown, same for each organic and conventional pair, were peas (Pisum sativum), beans (Phaseolus vulgaris), barley (Hordeum vulgare), and wheat (Triticum aestivum). Organic systems were chosen as comparators not because they are the only forms of sustainable agriculture, but because they are subject to easily understood standards. Results. We found that organic farming systems depended on fewer external inputs and produced outputs of energy and crop dry matter generally less than but sometimes similar to those of their conventional counterparts. The economic values of the two selected ES were greater for the organic systems in all four crops, ranging from US$ 68-200 ha(-1) yr(-1) for biological control of pests and from US$ 110-425 ha(-1)yr(-1) for N mineralisation in the organic systems versus US$ 0 ha(-1)yr(-1) for biological control of pests and from US$ 60-244 ha(-1)yr(-1) for N mineralisation in the conventional systems. The total economic value (including market and non-market components) was significantly greater in organic systems, ranging from US$ 1750-4536 ha(-1)yr(-1), with US$ 1585-2560 ha(-1)yr(-1) in the conventional systems. The non-market component of the economic value in organic fields was also significantly higher than those in conventional fields. Discussion. To illustrate the potential magnitude of these two ES to temperate farming systems and agricultural landscapes elsewhere, we then extrapolate these experimentally derived figures to the global temperate cropping area of the same arable crops. We found that the extrapolated net value of the these two services provided by non-traded species could exceed the combined current global costs of pesticide and fertiliser inputs, even if utilised on only 10% of the global arable area. This approach strengthens the case for ES-rich agricultural systems, provided by non-traded species to global agriculture.

Abstract: Europe’s ability to feed its population depends on the balance of agricultural productivity (yields and land suitability) and demand which are affected by future climate and socio-economic change (arising from changing food demand; prices; technology change etc).  Land use under 2050 climate change and socio-economic scenarios can be rapidly and systematically quantified with a modelling system that has been developed from meta-models of optimal cropping and crop and forest yields derived from the outputs of the previously developed complex models (Audsley et al; 2015). Profitability of each possible land use is modelled for every soil in every grid across the EU. Land use in a grid is then allocated based on profit thresholds set for intensive agriculture extensive agriculture, managed forest and finally unmanaged forest or unmanaged land.  The European demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available.   The model iterates until demand is satisfied (or cannot be met at any price).  Results are presented as contour plots of key variables. For example, given a 40% increase in population from the baseline socio-economic scenario, adapting by increasing crop yields by 40% will leave a 38% probability that the 2050 future climate will be such that we cannot feed ourselves – considering “all” the possible climate scenarios. No Label