Klatt, S., Haas, E., & Kiese, R. (2014). Responses of soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching on climate input data aggregation: a biogeochemistry model ensemble study. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Models are increasingly used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions at site to regional and national scales and are outlined as the most advanced methodology for national emission reporting in the framework of UNFCCC. Process-based models incorporate the major processes of the carbon and nitrogen cycle and are thus thought to be widely applicable at various spatial and temporal scales. The definition of the spatial scale is determined by the objectives. GHG emission reporting requests spatially and temporally aggregated information whereas for the assessment of mitigation options on hot spots and hot moments of emissions a high spatial simulation resolution is required. In addition, other input data also determine the simulation scale. Low resolution simulations needs less effort in computation and data management, but important details could be lost during the process of data aggregation associated with high uncertainties of the simulation results. This study presents the aggregation effects of climate input data on the simulations of soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching by comparing different biogeochemistry models. Using process-based models (DailyDayCent, LandscapeDNDC, Stics, Mode, Coup, Epic), we simulated a 30-year cropping system for two crops (winter wheat and maize monocultures) under water- and nutrient-limited conditions based on a 1 km resolution climate dataset. We aggregated the climate data to resolutions of 10, 25, 50, and 100 km and repeated the simulations on these spatial scales. We calculated the N2O emissions as well as the nitrate leaching on all scales. Results will be presented and discussed.
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Lacetera, N., Vitali, A., Bernabucci, U., & Nardone, A. (2014). Relationships between temperature humidity index, mortality, milk yield and composition in Italian dairy cows. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The aim of this presentation is to illustrate the activities performed by the LiveM-Task L1.2. group based at the University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy. Three different pluriannual databases were built to perform retrospective studies aimed at establishing the relationships between temperature humidity index (THI) and parameters of interest for dairy cow farms. The THI combines temperature and humidity in a single value and has been widely used to quantify heat stress in farm animals. The first database was built to assess the relationships between THI and mortality over a 6 yr period (2002-2007); the second one was a 7 yr database (2001-2007) which was built to establish the relationships between THI and milk yield; the last database included THI, milk somatic cell counts, total bacterial counts, fat and protein percentages data collected over a 7 yr period (2003-2009). The analysis of the three databases provided several equations which demonstrated and quantified an increase of mortality, reduction of milk yield and a worsening of milk quality in hot environment. Results of these analyzes authorized speculations about risks for dairy cows and their productivity in a warming planet. Furthermore, the same results are being utilized by economists also working within MACSUR at the University of Tuscia for an integrated study aimed at establishing the economic impact of climate change in the dairy sector. Combining this information with climate change regional scenarios might permit prediction of the impact of global warming and identification of adaptation measures that are appropriate for specific contexts.
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Schönhart, M. (2014). Regional Pilot Case Study: Mostviertal – AT, upcoming project phase. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The presentation indicates our plans for activities in the Mostviertel region in the next project phase.
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Schönhart, M., Schauppenlehner, T., Schmid, E., & Sinabell, F. (2014). Regional Pilot Case Study Mostviertel – AT: Preliminary Results. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: An integrated modelling framework (IMF) is developed to analyse impacts of climate andpolicy changes on farm welfare and the environment. The IMF is applied on two contrasting grassland (south) and cropland (north) dominated Austrian landscapes. The IMF combines the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bio-economic farm model FAMOS[space] and applies combined climate change and policy scenarios. Changing policies reduce farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes respectively. Climate change increases gross margins and farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Climate induced intensification such as removing of landscape elements andincreasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program (AEP). However, productivity gains from climate change increase the opportunity costs for AEP participation.
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Ventrella, D., & Giglio, L. (2014). Regional analysis of climate change impact and adaptation strategies for winter durum wheat and tomato yield cultivated in Southern Italy. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The most important factors limiting the agriculture in Puglia region in Southern Italy are typically linked to high temperatures and low water availability. In expected future scenarios, increased challenges about such factors could further limit the crop productivity. We adopted an approach based on the simulation analysis carried out through the DSSAT implemented into AEGIS/WIN. This tool has proved to be an useful tool to manage the analysis results about the potential future impact of two regionalized climatic scenarios within the SRES scenario A2. Anomaly2 and Anomaly5, based on a target increase of global temperature of 2° and 5°C. The winter durum wheat and tomato were simulated on the basis of the interaction climate-soil on a regional scale framework interesting the whole area of Puglia (about 20000 km2) subdivided in about 200 units of simulation. The wheat yield has proved to be mainly affected by the variability of precipitation. Conversely, the largest increment of temperature of spring-summer period caused a tomato yield reduction. As second step, in order to individuate the optimal adaptation strategies for both crops, a spatial analysis focused on sowing/transplanting times, nitrogen fertilization and tomato-irrigation has been carried out. The results have clearly indicated the different sensitivity of crops to climate change as influenced by the specific interaction soil-climate and an high degree of uncertainty, especially for the sowing date, depending even on small differences related to the climatic differences characterizing the areas of the Puglia territory.
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