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Bojar, W. (2014). Short information on progress in MACSUR (Vol. 68 C6 -).
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Barbier-Brygoo, H., Chilliard, Y., Durand, J. - L., Elmayan, T., Goldringer, I., & Porter, J. R. (2014). Rapport du groupe de traveil sur la Propriétè Intellectuelle dans le végétal, du conseil scientifique nationale de l’INRA. Paris, France.
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Hutchings, N., & Kipling, R. (2014). Inventory of farm-scale models within LiveM (Vol. 3).
Abstract: The aim of WP3 is to improve the assessment of the impact of climate change on livestock and grassland systems at the farm-scale. The first step in this process is to understand the current state of the art in farm-scale modelling, and the resources available within the MACSUR knowledge hub. Here, an inventory of the farm-scale models available within LiveM is presented, along with a summary of the types of model represented. Thirteen farm-scale models were identified, three of which focus on environmental aspects of farm systems (GHG emissions etc.) and ten of which focus on management strategies (productivity, economics etc.).
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Özkan, Ş., Hill, J., & Cullen, B. (2014). Effect of climate variability on pasture-based dairy feeding systems in south-east Australia. Animal Production Science, 55(9), 1106–1116.
Abstract: The Australian dairy industry relies primarily on pasture for its feed supply. However, the variability in climate affects plant growth, leading to uncertainty in dryland pasture supply. This paper models the impact of climate variability on pasture production and examines the potential of two pasture-based dairy feeding systems: (1) to experience winter deficits; (2) to carry forward the conserved pasture surpluses as silage for future use; and (3) to conserve pasture surpluses as hay. The two dairy feeding systems examined were a traditional perennial ryegrass-based feeding system (ryegrass max. – RM) and a system that incorporated double cropping into the perennial ryegrass pasture base (complementary forage – CF). The conditional probability of the RM and CF systems to generate pasture deficits in winter were 94% and 96%, respectively. Both systems could carry forward the surplus silage into the following lactation almost once in every 4-5 years with the RM system performing slightly better than the CF system. The proportions of the grain-based concentrates fed in the two systems were 25% and 27% for the RM and CF systems, respectively. This study suggests that double-cropping systems have the potential to provide high-quality feed to support the feed gaps when pasture is not available due to increased variability in climatic conditions.
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Refsgaard, J. C., Madsen, H., Andréassian, V., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Davidson, T. A., Drews, M., et al. (2014). A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. Clim. Change, 122(1-2), 271–282.
Abstract: Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.
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