Zander, P., Schuler, J., Porwollik, V., & Hecker, J. - M. (2014). Modelling approach and first results on irrigation as climate change adaptation strategy of the project NaLaMa-nT. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The project NaLaMa-nT examines in the context of climate change sustainable development paths of land use in four different rural districts in Northern Germany. These districts were chosen along a soil-climate gradient from west to east with increasing water deficit for plant growth caused by both: decreasing rain fall and decreasing soil quality. In front of this background different trends and developments of agricultural production can be derived from analysing, modelling and comparing existing production systems and conditions of the different regions. One assumption developed from existing climate projections is that climate change will cause increasing water deficits for plant growth – especially in the eastern part of Germany. An obvious solution is to intensify agricultural production using existing irrigation methods that can reduce the yield risk and thus stabilize income from agriculture by avoiding yield failures and increasing the overall yield level. Therefore we build a modelling approach which allows an economic analysis both on the crop production activity level as well on the farm level. The data base comprises data representing recent production techniques and added optional irrigation techniques. The yields and input level changes are derived from literature studies and expert interviews. The farm structure is represented and modeled based on typical farms chosen from an IACS-data farm typology with different production potentials and patterns. First results will be presented in April.
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Wolf, P., & Holz, K. (2014). LandPaKT. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: LandPaKT (agricultural techniques: potentials and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation) is a joint project of the Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering (ATB) and the Agricultural-Horticultural Faculty of the Humboldt University Berlin. Within the established graduate school LandPaKT, seven PhD students analyse the mitigation potentials and costs of greenhouse gas emissions systematically and merge them at the farm level. With the re-wetting of organic soils, the carbon sequestration in mineral soils depending on agricultural activities and the livestock husbandry, the most important sectors of agriculture are included in the analyses. With modelling and simulation approaches, single as well as combined measures are analysed with regard to their overall effect. Recommendations for the most-promising measures at farm level are deduced. Based on a farm model for water-use efficiency, developed within another ATB project (AgroHyd), LandPaKT aims to expand the model by greenhouse gas emissions. The graduate school started in May 2013.The increase of the global human population with the resulting increase in food demand accompanied by changed consumption patterns urgently calls for the exploitation of mitigation options in animal husbandry. Based on the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach, methodological recommendations for carbon footprint analyses for dairy farming will be developed. Furthermore, the influence of different feeds and feeding strategies on greenhouse gas emission from dairy farming will be investigated.
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Witkowska-Walczak, B., Sławiński, C., Bartmiński, P., Melke, J., & Cymerman, J. (2014). Water conductivity of arctic zone soils (Spitsbergen). International Agrophysics, 28(4), 529–535.
Abstract: The water conductivity of arctic zone soils derived in different micro-relief forms was determined. The greatest water conductivity at the 0-5 cm depth for the higher values of water potentials (> -7 kJ m(-3)) was shown by tundra polygons (Brunic-Turbic Cryosol, Arenic) – 904-0.09 cm day(-1), whereas the lowest were exhibited by Turbic Cryosols – 95-0.05 cm day(-1). Between -16 and -100 kJ m(-3), the water conductivity for tundra polygons rapidly decreased to 0.0001 cm day(-1), whereas their decrease for the other forms was much lower and in consequence the values were 0.007, 0.04, and 0.01 cm day(-1) for the mud boils (Turbic Cryosol (Siltic, Skeletic)), cell forms (Turbic Cryosol (Siltic, Skeletic)), and sorted circles (Turbic Cryosol (Skeletic)), respectively. In the 10-15 cm layer, the shape of water conductivity curves for the higher values of water potentials is nearly the same as for the upper layer. Similarly, the water conductivity is the highest -0.2 cm day(-1) for tundra polygons. For the lower water potentials, the differences in water conductivity increase to the decrease of soil water potential. At the lowest potential the water conductivity is the highest for sorted circles -0.02 cm day(-1) and the lowest in tundra polygons -0.00002 cm day(-1).
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Wilson, A. J., & Gubbins, S. (2014). Modelling interactions between climate and livestock pathogen transmission. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Climate affects the transmission of livestock pathogens via multiple direct and indirect pathways. The impact of climate change on livestock pathogens is therefore complex and difficult to predict. Recent improvements in the availability of climatic data, the accumulation of epidemiological data and the development of Bayesian methodologies allow improved inferences to be made about the responses of pathogens to climate change. We discuss recent studies demonstrating these principles and present a proposal for future work using an extensively validated model for the transmission of bluetongue virus to forecast the potential consequences of predicted environmental changes to the expected impact of the disease and efficacy of current control strategies under a range of incursion scenarios.
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Wilson, A. (2014). Introduction and purpose of meeting..
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