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Mansouri, M., Dumont, B., & Destain, M. - F. (2013). Modeling and prediction of nonlinear environmental system using Bayesian methods. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 92, 16–31.
Abstract: An environmental dynamic system is usually modeled as a nonlinear system described by a set of nonlinear ODEs. A central challenge in computational modeling of environmental systems is the determination of the model parameters. In these cases, estimating these variables or parameters from other easily obtained measurements can be extremely useful. This work addresses the problem of monitoring and modeling a leaf area index and soil moisture model (LSM) using state estimation. The performances of various conventional and state-of-the-art state estimation techniques are compared when they are utilized to achieve this objective. These techniques include the extended Kalman filter (EKF), particle filter (PF), and the more recently developed technique variational filter (VF). Specifically, two comparative studies are performed. In the first comparative study, the state variables (the leaf-area index LAI, the volumetric water content of the soil layer 1, HUR1 and the volumetric water content of the soil layer 2, HUR2) are estimated from noisy measurements of these variables, and the various estimation techniques are compared by computing the estimation root mean square error (RMSE) with respect to the noise-free data. In the second comparative study, the state variables as well as the model parameters are simultaneously estimated. In this case, in addition to comparing the performances of the various state estimation techniques, the effect of number of estimated model parameters on the accuracy and convergence of these techniques are also assessed. The results of both comparative studies show that the PF provides a higher accuracy than the EKF, which is due to the limited ability of the EKF to handle highly nonlinear processes. The results also show that the VF provides a significant improvement over the PF because, unlike the PF which depends on the choice of sampling distribution used to estimate the posterior distribution, the VF yields an optimum choice of the sampling distribution, which also accounts for the observed data. The results of the second comparative study show that, for all techniques, estimating more model parameters affects the estimation accuracy as well as the convergence of the estimated states and parameters. However, the VF can still provide both convergence as well as accuracy related advantages over other estimation methods. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Lorite, I. J., García-Vila, M., Santos, C., Ruiz-Ramos, M., & Fereres, E. (2013). AquaData and AquaGIS: Two computer utilities for temporal and spatial simulations of water-limited yield with AquaCrop. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 96, 227–237.
Abstract: The crop simulation model AquaCrop, recently developed by FAO can be used for a wide range of purposes. However, in its present form, its use over large areas or for applications that require a large number of simulations runs (e.g., long-term analysis), is not practical without developing software to facilitate such applications. Two tools for managing the inputs and outputs of AquaCrop, named AquaData and AquaGIS, have been developed for this purpose and are presented here. Both software utilities have been programmed in Delphi v. 5 and in addition, AquaGIS requires the Geographic Information System (GIS) programming tool MapObjects. These utilities allow the efficient management of input and output files, along with a GIS module to develop spatial analysis and effect spatial visualization of the results, facilitating knowledge dissemination. A sample of application of the utilities is given here, as an AquaCrop simulation analysis of impact of climate change on wheat yield in Southern Spain, which requires extensive input data preparation and output processing. The use of AquaCrop without the two utilities would have required approximately 1000 h of work, while the utilization of AquaData and AquaGIS reduced that time by more than 99%. Furthermore, the use of GIS, made it possible to perform a spatial analysis of the results, thus providing a new option to extend the use of the AquaCrop model to scales requiring spatial and temporal analyses. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Lardy, R., Bellocchi, G., & Martin, R. (2015). Vuln-Indices: Software to assess vulnerability to climate change. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 114, 53–57.
Abstract: Vuln-Indices Java-based software was developed on concepts of vulnerability to climate change of agro-ecological systems. It implements the calculation of vulnerability indices on series of state variables for assessments at both site and region levels. The tool is useful because synthetic indices help capturing complex processes and prove effective to identify the factors responsible for vulnerability and their relative importance. It is suggested that the tool may be plausible for use with stakeholders to disseminate information of climate change impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Sanz-Cobena, A., Sánchez-Martín, L., García-Torres, L., & Vallejo, A. (2012). Gaseous emissions of N2O and NO and NO3 − leaching from urea applied with urease and nitrification inhibitors to a maize (Zea mays) crop. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 149, 64–73.
Abstract: Urea has become the predominant source of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer used throughout the world. Among the various available mitigation tools, urease inhibitors like NBPT have the most potential to improve efficiency of urea by reducing N losses, mainly via ammonia volatilization. However, there is a lack of information on the effect of N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT) on other N losses such as gaseous emissions of N2O and NO and NO3− leaching. A two-year field experiment using irrigated maize (Zea mays) crop was carried out under Mediterranean conditions to evaluate the effectiveness of urea coated with NBPT (0.4%, w/w) alone and with both NBPT and nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD) (0.4 and 3%, w/w, respectively) to mitigate N2O–N, NO–N and NO3−–N losses. The different treatments of U, U+NBPT and U+NBPT+DCD were applied to the maize crop in 2009 and then in 2010. The 2010 maize crop followed a fallow period, during which the 2009 crop residues were incorporated into the soil. Two different irrigation regimes were followed each year. In 2009, irrigation was controlled for the first 2 weeks following urea fertilization; whereas, the 2010 crop period was characterized by increased irrigation in the same period. After each treatment application, measurements of the changes in soil mineral N, gaseous emissions of N2O and NO, nitrate leaching and biomass production were made. N2O emissions were effectively abated by NBPT and NBPT+DCD and were reduced by 54 and 24%, respectively, in 2009. A reduction in nitrification rate by the inhibitors was also observed during 2009. In 2010 cropping period, NBPT reduced N2O emissions by 4%; while the combination of NBPT and DCD treatment reduced N2O emission by 43%. Yield-scaled N2O emissions were reduced by 50 and 18% by NBPT and the mixture of NBPT+DCD, respectively, in 2009. Applying inhibitors did not have any significant effect on yield-scaled N2O emissions in the 2010 crop period. Total NO losses from urea were 2.25 kg NO–N ha−1 in the 2009 crop period and 5 times lower in the following year; this may provide an indicator of the prevalence of nitrification as the main process in the production of N2O in the 2009 maize crop. Most of the NO3− was lost within the fallow period (i.e. 92, 81 and 75% of the total NO3− leached for U, U+NBPT and U+NBPT+DCD, respectively), so the incorporation of crop residues was not as effective as expected at reducing these N losses. Our study suggests that the effectiveness of NBPT and combination of NBPT+DCD in reducing N losses from applied urea is influenced by management practices, such as irrigation, and climatic conditions.
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Tao, F., Zhang, S., Zhang, Z., & Rötter, R. P. (2015). Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 208, 12–20.
Abstract: The precise spatially explicit knowledge about crop yield potentials and yield gaps is essential to guide sustainable intensification of agriculture. In this study, the maize yield potentials from 1980 to 2008 across the major maize production regions of China were firstly estimated by county using ensemble simulation of a well-validated large scale crop model, i.e., MCWLA-Maize model. Then, the temporal and spatial patterns of maize yield potentials and yield gaps during 1980-2008 were presented and analyzed. The results showed that maize yields became stagnated at 32.4% of maize-growing areas during the period. In the major maize production regions, i.e., northeastern China, the North China Plain (NCP) and southwestern China, yield gap percentages were generally less than 40% and particularly less than 20% in some areas. By contrast, in northern and southern China, where actual yields were relatively lower, yield gap percentages were generally larger than 40%. The areas with yield gap percentages less than 20% and less than 40% accounted for 8.2% and 27.6% of maize-growing areas, respectively. During the period, yield potentials decreased in the NCP and southwestern China due to increase in temperature and decrease in solar radiation; by contrast, increased in northern, northeastern and southeastern China due to increases in both temperature and solar radiation. Yield gap percentages decreased generally by 2% per year across the major maize production regions, although increased in some areas in northern and northeastern China. The shrinking of yield gap was due to increases in actual yields and decreases in yield potentials in the NCP and southwestern China; and due to larger increases in actual yields than in yield potentials in northeastern and southeastern China. The results highlight the importance of sustainable intensification of agriculture to close yield gaps, as well as breeding new cultivars to increase yield potentials, to meet the increasing food demand. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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