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Lardy, R., Bellocchi, G., & Martin, R. (2015). Vuln-Indices: Software to assess vulnerability to climate change. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 114, 53–57.
Abstract: Vuln-Indices Java-based software was developed on concepts of vulnerability to climate change of agro-ecological systems. It implements the calculation of vulnerability indices on series of state variables for assessments at both site and region levels. The tool is useful because synthetic indices help capturing complex processes and prove effective to identify the factors responsible for vulnerability and their relative importance. It is suggested that the tool may be plausible for use with stakeholders to disseminate information of climate change impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Sanz-Cobena, A., Sánchez-Martín, L., García-Torres, L., & Vallejo, A. (2012). Gaseous emissions of N2O and NO and NO3 − leaching from urea applied with urease and nitrification inhibitors to a maize (Zea mays) crop. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 149, 64–73.
Abstract: Urea has become the predominant source of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer used throughout the world. Among the various available mitigation tools, urease inhibitors like NBPT have the most potential to improve efficiency of urea by reducing N losses, mainly via ammonia volatilization. However, there is a lack of information on the effect of N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT) on other N losses such as gaseous emissions of N2O and NO and NO3− leaching. A two-year field experiment using irrigated maize (Zea mays) crop was carried out under Mediterranean conditions to evaluate the effectiveness of urea coated with NBPT (0.4%, w/w) alone and with both NBPT and nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD) (0.4 and 3%, w/w, respectively) to mitigate N2O–N, NO–N and NO3−–N losses. The different treatments of U, U+NBPT and U+NBPT+DCD were applied to the maize crop in 2009 and then in 2010. The 2010 maize crop followed a fallow period, during which the 2009 crop residues were incorporated into the soil. Two different irrigation regimes were followed each year. In 2009, irrigation was controlled for the first 2 weeks following urea fertilization; whereas, the 2010 crop period was characterized by increased irrigation in the same period. After each treatment application, measurements of the changes in soil mineral N, gaseous emissions of N2O and NO, nitrate leaching and biomass production were made. N2O emissions were effectively abated by NBPT and NBPT+DCD and were reduced by 54 and 24%, respectively, in 2009. A reduction in nitrification rate by the inhibitors was also observed during 2009. In 2010 cropping period, NBPT reduced N2O emissions by 4%; while the combination of NBPT and DCD treatment reduced N2O emission by 43%. Yield-scaled N2O emissions were reduced by 50 and 18% by NBPT and the mixture of NBPT+DCD, respectively, in 2009. Applying inhibitors did not have any significant effect on yield-scaled N2O emissions in the 2010 crop period. Total NO losses from urea were 2.25 kg NO–N ha−1 in the 2009 crop period and 5 times lower in the following year; this may provide an indicator of the prevalence of nitrification as the main process in the production of N2O in the 2009 maize crop. Most of the NO3− was lost within the fallow period (i.e. 92, 81 and 75% of the total NO3− leached for U, U+NBPT and U+NBPT+DCD, respectively), so the incorporation of crop residues was not as effective as expected at reducing these N losses. Our study suggests that the effectiveness of NBPT and combination of NBPT+DCD in reducing N losses from applied urea is influenced by management practices, such as irrigation, and climatic conditions.
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Sándor, R., Barcza, Z., Hidy, D., Lellei-Kovács, E., Ma, S., & Bellocchi, G. (2016). Modelling of grassland fluxes in Europe: evaluation of two biogeochemical models. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 215, 1–19.
Abstract: Two independently developed simulation models – the grassland-specific PaSim and the biome-generic Biome-BGC MuSo (BBGC MuSo) – linking climate, soil, vegetation and management to ecosystem biogeochemical cycles were compared in a simulation of carbon (C) and water fluxes. The results were assessed against eddy-covariance flux data from five observational grassland sites representing a range of conditions in Europe: Grillenburg in Germany, Laqueuille in France with both extensive and intensive management, Monte Bondone in Italy and Oensingen in Switzerland. Model comparison (after calibration) gave substantial agreement, the performances being marginal to acceptable for weekly-aggregated gross primary production and ecosystem respiration (R-2 similar to 0.66 – 0.91), weekly evapotranspiration (R-2 similar to 0.78 – 0.94), soil water content in the topsoil (R-2 similar to 0.1 -0.7) and soil temperature (R-2 similar to 0.88 – 0.96). The bias was limited to the range -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) for C fluxes (-11 to 8 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of BBGC MuSo, and -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of PaSim) and -4 to 6 mm week for water fluxes (with BBGC MuSo providing somewhat higher estimates than PaSim), but some higher relative root mean square errors indicate low accuracy for prediction, especially for net ecosystem exchange The sensitivity of simulated outputs to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature and precipitation indicate, with certain agreement between the two models, that C outcomes are dominated by [CO2] and temperature gradients, and are less due to precipitation. ET rates decrease with increasing [CO2] in PaSim (consistent with experimental knowledge), while lack of appropriate stomatal response could be a limit in BBGC MuSo responsiveness. Results of the study indicate that some of the errors might be related to the improper representation of soil water content and soil temperature. Improvement is needed in the model representations of soil processes (especially soil water balance) that strongly influence the biogeochemical cycles of managed and unmanaged grasslands. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Höhn, J., & Rötter, R. P. (2014). Impact of global warming on European cereal production. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources, 9(022), 1–15.
Abstract: This review examines relevant impact assessments identified by a literature search from 1991to date. A bibliographic search was applied to the CAB Abstracts database with a given searchstring. Resultant papers were checked for relevance, based on expert judgment. This yielded 91 papers, which were subjected to further analysis. Firstly, publication intensity over time and distribution by geographic location and cereal crop were examined. Next, for a given crop, the assessments and their outcomes were grouped by type and number of the change variables considered – that is, effects of climate change only, elevated CO 2 and technological progress(improved breeds, management). Finally, separately for individual countries/subregions and Europe as a whole, we examined whether and to what extent study results have changed over time, for example become more positive/negative. Based on our sample, we found that publication intensity increased exponentially during thelast 4 years, the majority of studies are Europe-wide, but some concentrated on a few countries(Italy, Spain and UK), whereby studies on wheat are clearly most popular. Taking the factor of technological progress into account has an overruling influence on results. Finally, over time, projected yield impacts have become more negative. This is in line with finding from global analyses, as reflected by the most recent comparison of agricultural impact chapters, of the 4thand 5th Assessment Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II.In the future, there is particular need to consider impacts under various incremental and transformational adaptation measures in more depth (e.g. their interconnections across scales)and with more breadth (e.g. anticipated new breeds). Follow-up reviews should also examine how projected impacts are changing with the new climate scenario data sets (CMIP5) and with improved impact models and assessment approaches.
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Lehtonen, H. S., & Irz, X. (2013). Impacts of reducing red meat consumption on agricultural production in Finland. Agriculture and Food Science, 22(3), 356–370.
Abstract: This paper summarises the simulated effects on Finnish agrcultural production and trade of a 20% decrease in Finnish demand for red meat (beef, pork, lamb). According to our results, reduced red meat consumption would be offset by increased consumption of poultry meat, eggs, dairy products and fish, as well as small increases in consumption of fruits and vegetables, peas, nuts, cereal products and sweets. By including the derived demand changes in an agricultural sector model, we show that livestock production in Finland, incentivised by national production-linked payments for milk and bovine animals, would decrease by much less than 20% due to the complex nature of agricultural production and trade. Overall, assuming unchanged consumer preferences and agricultural policy, a 20% reduction in red meat consumption is not likely to lead to a substantial decrease in livestock production or changed land use, or greenhouse gas emissions, from Finnish agriculture.
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