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Toscano, P., Ranieri, R., Matese, A., Vaccari, F. P., Gioli, B., Zaldei, A., et al. (2012). Durum wheat modeling: The Delphi system, 11 years of observations in Italy. European Journal of Agronomy, 43, 108–118.
Abstract: ► Delphi system, based on AFRCWHEAT2 model, for durum wheat forecast. ► AFRCWHEAT2 model was calibrated and validated for three years. ► A scenario approach was applied to simulation of durum wheat yield. ► Operational mode for eleven years in rainfed and water limiting conditions. ► Accurate forecast as an useful planning tool. Crop models are frequently used in ecology, agronomy and environmental sciences for simulating crop and environmental variables at a discrete time step. The aim of this work was to test the predictive capacity of the Delphi system, calibrated and determined for each pedoclimatic factor affecting durum wheat during phenological development. at regional scale. We present an innovative system capable of predicting spatial yield variation and temporal yield fluctuation in long-term analysis, that are the main purposes of regional crop simulation study. The Delphi system was applied to simulate growth and yield of durum wheat in the major Italian supply basins (Basilicata, Capitanata, Marche, Tuscany). The model was validated and evaluated for three years (1995-1997) at 11 experimental fields and then used in operational mode for eleven years (1999-2009), showing an excellent/good accuracy in predicting grain yield even before maturity for a wide range of growing conditions in the Mediterranean climate, governed by different annual weather patterns. The results were evaluated on the basis of regression and normalized root mean squared error with known crop yield statistics at regional level. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Yin, X., Olesen, J. E., Wang, M., Kersebaum, K. - C., Chen, H., Baby, S., et al. (2016). Adapting maize production to drought in the Northeast Farming Region of China. European Journal of Agronomy, 77, 47–58.
Abstract: Maize (Zea mays L.) is the most prominent crop in the Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR), and drought has been the largest limitation for maize production in this area during recent decades. The question of how to adapt maize production to drought has received great attention from policy makers, researchers and farmers. In order to evaluate the effects of adaptation strategies against drought and examine the influences of policy supports and farmer households’ characteristics on adopting decisions, a large scale household survey was conducted in five representative maize production counties across NFR. Our survey results indicated that using variety diversification, drought resistant varieties and dibbling irrigation are the three major adaptation strategies against drought in spring, and farmers also adopted changes in sowing time, conservation tillage and mulching to cope with drought in spring. About 20% and 18% of households enhanced irrigation against drought in summer and autumn, respectively. Deep loosening tillage and organic fertilizer are also options for farmers to resist drought in summer. Maize yield was highly dependent on soil qualities, with yields on land of high soil quality approximately 1050 kg/ha and 2400 kg/ha higher than for normal and poor soil conditions, respectively. Using variety diversification and drought resistant varieties can respectively increase maize yield by approximately 150 and 220 kg/ha under drought. Conservation tillage increased maize yield by 438–459 kg/ha in drought years. Irrigation improved maize yield by 419–435 kg/ha and 444–463 kg/ha against drought in summer and autumn, respectively. Offering information service, financial and technical support can greatly increase the use of adaptation strategies for farmers to cope with drought. However, only 46% of households received information service, 43% of households received financial support, and 26% of households received technical support against drought from the local government. The maize acreage and the irrigation access are the major factors that influenced farmers’ decisions to apply adaptation strategies to cope with drought in each season, but only 25% of households have access to irrigation. This indicates the need for enhanced public support for farmers to better cope with drought in maize production, particularly through improving access to irrigation.
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