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Kipling, R. P., Bannink, A., Bellocchi, G., Dalgaard, T., Fox, N. J., Hutchings, N. J., et al. (2016). Modeling European ruminant production systems: Facing the challenges of climate change. Agricultural Systems, 147, 24–37.
Abstract: Ruminant production systems are important producers of food, support rural communities and culture, and help to maintain a range of ecosystem services including the sequestering of carbon in grassland soils. However, these systems also contribute significantly to climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while intensi- fication of production has driven biodiversity and nutrient loss, and soil degradation. Modeling can offer insights into the complexity underlying the relationships between climate change, management and policy choices, food production, and the maintenance of ecosystem services. This paper 1) provides an overview of how ruminant systems modeling supports the efforts of stakeholders and policymakers to predict, mitigate and adapt to climate change and 2) provides ideas for enhancing modeling to fulfil this role. Many grassland models can predict plant growth, yield and GHG emissions from mono-specific swards, but modeling multi-species swards, grassland quality and the impact of management changes requires further development. Current livestock models provide a good basis for predicting animal production; linking these with models of animal health and disease is a prior- ity. Farm-scale modeling provides tools for policymakers to predict the emissions of GHG and other pollutants from livestock farms, and to support the management decisions of farmers from environmental and economic standpoints. Other models focus on how policy and associated management changes affect a range of economic and environmental variables at regional, national and European scales. Models at larger scales generally utilise more empirical approaches than those applied at animal, field and farm-scales and include assumptions which may not be valid under climate change conditions. It is therefore important to continue to develop more realistic representations of processes in regional and global models, using the understanding gained from finer-scale modeling. An iterative process of model development, in which lessons learnt from mechanistic models are ap- plied to develop ‘smart’ empirical modeling, may overcome the trade-off between complexity and usability. De- veloping the modeling capacity to tackle the complex challenges related to climate change, is reliant on closer links between modelers and experimental researchers, and also requires knowledge-sharing and increasing technical compatibility across modeling disciplines. Stakeholder engagement throughout the process of model development and application is vital for the creation of relevant models, and important in reducing problems re- lated to the interpretation of modeling outcomes. Enabling modeling to meet the demands of policymakers and other stakeholders under climate change will require collaboration within adequately-resourced, long-term inter-disciplinary research networks
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Liu, X., Lehtonen, H., Purola, T., Pavlova, Y., Rötter, R., & Palosuo, T. (2016). Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure. Agricultural Systems, 144, 65–76.
Abstract: Agricultural practice is facing multiple challenges under volatile commodity markets, inevitable climate change, mounting pest pressure and various other environment-related constraints. The objective of this research is to present a dynamic optimization model of crop rotations and farm management and show its suitability for economic analysis over a 30 year time period. In this model, we include management practices such as fertilization, fungicide treatment and liming, and apply it in a region in Southwestern Finland. Results show that (i) growing pest pressure favours the cultivation of wheat-oats and wheat-oilseeds combinations, while (ii) market prices largely determine the crops in the rotation plan and the specific management practices adopted. The flexibility of our model can also be utilized in evaluating the value of other management options such as new cultivars under different projections of future climate and market conditions.
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Challinor, A. J., Smith, M. S., & Thornton, P. (2013). Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 2–7.
Abstract: ► Introduces the special issue on Agricultural prediction using climate model ensembles. ► Discuss remaining scientific challenges. ► Develops distinction between projection- and utility-based ensemble modelling. ► Recommendations made RE modelling and the analysis and reporting of uncertainty. Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop–climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality.
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Tao, F., Zhang, S., Zhang, Z., & Rötter, R. P. (2015). Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 208, 12–20.
Abstract: The precise spatially explicit knowledge about crop yield potentials and yield gaps is essential to guide sustainable intensification of agriculture. In this study, the maize yield potentials from 1980 to 2008 across the major maize production regions of China were firstly estimated by county using ensemble simulation of a well-validated large scale crop model, i.e., MCWLA-Maize model. Then, the temporal and spatial patterns of maize yield potentials and yield gaps during 1980-2008 were presented and analyzed. The results showed that maize yields became stagnated at 32.4% of maize-growing areas during the period. In the major maize production regions, i.e., northeastern China, the North China Plain (NCP) and southwestern China, yield gap percentages were generally less than 40% and particularly less than 20% in some areas. By contrast, in northern and southern China, where actual yields were relatively lower, yield gap percentages were generally larger than 40%. The areas with yield gap percentages less than 20% and less than 40% accounted for 8.2% and 27.6% of maize-growing areas, respectively. During the period, yield potentials decreased in the NCP and southwestern China due to increase in temperature and decrease in solar radiation; by contrast, increased in northern, northeastern and southeastern China due to increases in both temperature and solar radiation. Yield gap percentages decreased generally by 2% per year across the major maize production regions, although increased in some areas in northern and northeastern China. The shrinking of yield gap was due to increases in actual yields and decreases in yield potentials in the NCP and southwestern China; and due to larger increases in actual yields than in yield potentials in northeastern and southeastern China. The results highlight the importance of sustainable intensification of agriculture to close yield gaps, as well as breeding new cultivars to increase yield potentials, to meet the increasing food demand. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Rötter, R. P., Höhn, J. G., & Fronzek, S. (2012). Projections of climate change impacts on crop production: A global and a Nordic perspective. Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science, 62(4), 166–180.
Abstract: Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections.
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