Abstract: Many climate change studies have been carried out in different parts of the world to assess climate change vulnerability and adaptation capacity of agricultural crops for certain environments characterized from climatic, pedological and agronomical point of view. The objective of this study was to analyse the productive response of winter durum wheat and tomato to climate change and sowing/transplanting time in one of the most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia), using CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO cropping system models. Three climatic datasets were used: i) a single dataset (50 km x 50 km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975- 2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2°C (centred over 2030-2060) and +5°C (centred over 2070-2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). No negative yield effects of climate change were observed for winter durum wheat with delayed sowing (from 330 to 345 DOY) increasing the average dry matter grain yield under forecasted scenarios. Instead, the warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate the phenology, resulting in decreased yield for tomato under the + 5°C future climate scenario. In general, under global temperature increase by 5°C, early transplanting times could minimize the negative impact of climate change on crop productivity but the intensity of this effect was not sufficient to restore the current production levels of tomato cultivated in southern Italy.

Abstract: To reduce the dependence on local expert knowledge, which is important for large-scale crop modelling studies, we analyzed sowing dates and rules for maize (Zea mays L.) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L)) at three locations in Burkina Faso with strongly decreasing rainfall amounts from south to north. We tested in total 22 methods to derive optimal sowing dates that result in highest water-limited yields and lowest yield variation in a reproducible and objective way. The WOFOST crop growth simulation model was used. We found that sowing dates that are based on local expert knowledge, may work quite well for Burkina Faso and for West Africa in general. However, when no a priori information is available, maize should be sown between Julian days 160 and 200, with application of the following criteria: (a) cumulative rainfall in the sowing window is >= 3 cm or available soil moisture content is >2 cm in the moderately dry central part of Burkina Faso, (b) cumulative rainfall in this period is >= 2 cm or available soil moisture content is >1 cm in the more humid regions in the southern part of Burkina Faso. Sorghum should also be sown between Julian days 160 and 200 with application of the following criteria: (a) in the dry northern part of Burkina Faso the long duration sorghum variety should be sown when cumulative rainfall is >2 cm in the sowing window, and the short duration sorghum variety should be sown later when cumulative rainfall is >= 3 cm, (b) in central Burkina Faso sowing should start when cumulative rainfall in this period is >= 2 cm or when available soil moisture content is >1 cm. Sowing date rules are shown to be generally crop and location specific and are not generic for West Africa. However, the required precision of the sowing rules appears to rapidly decrease with increasing duration and intensity of the rainy season. Sowing delay as a result of, for example, labour constraints, has a disastrous effect on rainfed maize and sorghum yields, particularly in the northern part of West Africa with low rainfall. Optimization of sowing dates can also be done by simulating crop yields in a time window of two months around a predefined sowing date. Using these optimized dates appears to result in a good estimate of the maximal mean rainfed yield level. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.